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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #101 - Riding it out, non-lunar dragons  (Read 600 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Oct 29, 09:49:59 am »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

I was quoted over at the silverstackers forum about the fact that we business people think the modern Chinese coin market is the best place to put our money. There are several reasons for this, and not all of them are directly related to earning high profits. You may wonder why we're so enthusiastic about these coins even when the market appears to be the weakest it has been since 2008.

Well, firstly, the best buying opportunity in recent years was 2008 when prices slumped temporarily. But, nevermind that for now - what really gets us excited is that when a market beatdown comes, it's always less severe than in other markets (housing, stocks, gold, silver, the dollar...), and when the beatdown is over, the rare modern Chinese coin market bounces back much more energetically than the other markets.

In other words, it's all about RISK. We are in risky times right now. The sky hasn't fallen yet (for most of us), but it does appear to be hanging by a thread. For the unlucky, they're already fighting over space at the local homeless shelters, and I'm not exaggerating. I can't tell you how many times I've seen ordinary-looking families with young children, wandering the streets aimlessly while carrying stuffed suitcases for no particular destination. It's a vacation they'd rather not be taking, I'm sure. As the months get colder, the hard times are just going to keep getting harder.

All of us are exposed to the same risks that kicked those people out onto the streets. Remember, greed is what created this sad economic climate in the first place. Be mindful of your expectations with your investments, if you want to come out of this a little luckier than average. Be grateful that your investments are overall quite profitable, even when getting dragged through some weaker times than usual. You still have wealth, however flat or even reduced it might appear at times.

THAT's why business people love investing in rare modern Chinese coins. During good times, we're getting rich. During bad times, we're STAYING rich - even if we lose some money. Most of the people in the economy are walking through a minefield right now. One wrong step, and they never step with that leg again.

By comparison, investors in rare modern Chinese coins are going around the minefield instead of through it. Our path isn't so obvious, but it's far less risky. The consequences for mistakes and even total failure are far less severe for us, and that's why we're in this market. It's not all about profits, although there are plenty of those. It's about survival, and staying power.

We at LBC have been on top of our game since we started posting publicly on this forum in 2004. We've guided both ourselves and our readers to prosperity during the worst economic times since the 1930's. I've used references to "luck" a few times in the above paragraphs, but it's really not luck at all. It's wisdom.

We know the grass is not greener on the other side of the fence. We know times are hard, and we're in the best spot we can be in. That means we hang on tight when things get rough. Although I am very excited about the modern Chinese coin market, and confident in its future, I have held nothing back in warning readers that there will be rough patches. I am not surprised to see a weak market, as predicted. It doesn't change my attitude toward my investments, and it seems many people are similarly not worried.

You don't stop running the race when you get to the uphill part. If you want to win, you go the distance, and you don't slack off when it gets harder. We are doing that, and we're ready for the worst. The worst thing I've mentioned that can happen is some kind of war - either a trade war, or a literal war, that disrupts our ability to buy and sell our coins. I'm ready for it if it happens, and I won't be panicking or worrying about the quality of my investments. Once the dust settles, I'll still have my coins - and maybe, I'll have yours too :)

If you sell, do it to upgrade. Most of the coins on the market are coins that someone is upgrading. They're selling cheap because they're also buying cheap. We've got an exciting 2012 ahead of us, but we're not there yet. And, there's a small but significant possibility that most of 2012 itself could be disappointing, with the real action not coming until late in the year, and early in the next (2013). If anything serious happens like an uncontrolled economic or currency collapse occurs, or perhaps something like a war in your neighborhood, all bets are off. Make sure you can endure it, and even prosper in it, if that happens.

Some people are deriving income from their coins. Do not become dependent on the coin business as your sole source of income. If you do that, and the world enters a phase where people worry more about whether they're going to eat or not, coins will not be a meal ticket for you.

OK, enough doom and gloom. I hope you're psychologically prepared to ride out anything that happens, without giving up your wealth.

Non-lunar dragons

I think non-lunar dragons are being overlooked right now. They are going to get increased attention in 2012, year of the dragon, but they're available cheaply because everyone is focusing on the lunar dragons.

The 1990 2 g silver dragon & phoenix is my current top choice. There was a hoard in China that was being distributed by Xu Hong. Before this hoard hit the market, they were very hard to find. In fact, I don't remember seeing one before the hoard came available.

The planned mintage was 50,000 but 1990 is one of the famous key dates because almost nothing was minted in full quantities. In fact, I think almost every coin of 1990 had some losses to melting, because even the actual mintages were more than the market wanted at the time. In addition, the little 2 gram silver dragon & phoenix was the perfect size for jewelry, so many were probably damaged. There is a report of an actual mintage of 55038.

All dragon & phoenix coins are hard to get in high grades due to poor handling by mint employees. As of this writing, there are nearly 300 2 g silver dragon & phoenix graded at NGC, and only 3 that earned a 70 grade. The most recent price on a 69 grade was $235, down from a high of nearly $400 when they first hit the market.

These coins have huge popularity potential specifically because the 1990 dragon & phoenix series is the most popular of all modern Chinese coins, due to the marriage symbolism - even more than the panda, though the panda is finally starting to catch up in China. The dragon & phoenix price gains have stalled during 2011 while attention has been diverted to the underpriced pandas. Sector rotation will bring attention to the dragon & phoenix again in 2012, the year of the dragon. I think the little 1990 2 g silver dragon & phoenix is easily a $400 to $700 coin within the next 2 to 3 years (probably sooner), due to popularity potential alone, even if we conservatively assume the full mintage has survived in good condition.

An excellent post at the CCF about the rare 1989 dragon & phoenix coins will draw a lot of attention to all dragon & phoenix coins:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=4354.msg23484#msg23484

Also see KonaJim's CCF post about finding bargains outside of pandas and lunars:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=4317.0

The entire discussion is informative.

My choices

* 1990 2 g silver 5 jiao dragon & phoenix
* 1998 dragon culture
* Coins in a 70 grade.
* Lunars, starting with dragons, and expanding to the whole sets. 2012 year of the dragon will be lunar-mania.
* Dragon and phoenix (marriage theme symbolism).
* Peacocks (marriage theme symbolism).
* Pandas, especially silver, the rarer the better.
* Popular low-mintage key dates: 1990, 1995, 1998.
* 2012 anniversary dates: 1982 (panda), 2000 (lunar).

Tips:

* Pay what you have to pay for good coins that stubbornly do not drop in price.
* Focus your purchases on rarity together with popularity during this weak market.
* Sprinkle in some underpriced coins to ensure you don't miss out on big percentage gains in the cheaper coins, if you don't mind the hassle of reselling soon.
* Stick with the best coins available, in the most popular types (prefer 1 oz over 5 oz, for example).
* Be sure to continually upgrade your coins so you can keep up with the market as better coins accelerate ahead of lesser coins.

Remember, there are several kinds of rarity, in order of importance:

* Mintage rarity
* Grade rarity
* Relative rarity within a series ("key" coins)
* Variety rarity + popularity potential (you have to have popularity too)
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 29, 03:23:29 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Oct 29, 09:52:16 am »

This last half of the week has been much more active than we've seen recently. $44k worth of coins traded hands.

I've noticed that many of the common silver pandas are still getting beaten down. A 2007 1 oz silver panda in MS 70 sold for a low of $144! However, at the same time, a 2006 Beijing expo panda (also 1 oz silver, but with gold plating) sold for a new high at $360. What to make of this?

One, gold plated silver coins remain popular.

Two, mid-week auctions can make for fantastic buying opportunities as your competition is trading dollars for hours at their jobs.

So my picks for this week are going to be auction listed coins that haven't seen much attention. This is the kind of arbitrage opportunity that won't last.
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 29, 10:13:10 am by tamo42 » Logged

Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Oct 29, 09:52:24 am »

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 29, 10:08:59 am by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Oct 29, 09:52:35 am »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.

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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Oct 29, 09:52:55 am »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #100 article

Coin Sold  Sale Price  Sale Type  Melt RatioAg oz priceAu oz price
1986 P 1/4 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$650offer1.4918.40.37
2000 1/4 oz gold panda frosted PCGS MS 69$1025Buy-It-Now2.3529.00.58
1993 P 1/10 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$900offer5.1625.50.51
1991 1/20 oz gold panda large date NGC MS 69$189auction2.165.350.10
1996 1/10 oz gold panda large date NGC MS 69$349auction2.009.880.20
1997 1/10 oz gold panda large date NGC MS 69$349auction2.009.880.20
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$184.5auction5.225.220.10
2001 1 oz silver panda NCS NGC MS 69$159.99Buy-It-Now4.534.530.09
1997 1/20 oz gold panda large date NGC MS 69$199auction2.285.630.11
1996 1/20 oz gold panda small date NGC MS 69$199auction2.285.630.11
1985 1/3 oz gold Chinese historical figures Confucius NGC PF 69 UC$1125auction1.9331.80.64
1988 1/4 oz gold Sakyamuni Buddha NGC PF 69 uc$820auction1.8823.20.47
1987 1/4 oz gold goddess Mazu NGC PF 69 UC$795auction1.8222.50.45
1996 1 oz silver lunar rat NGC PF 69 UC$1295auction36.636.60.74
2006 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$355auction10.010.00.20
1980 12 g copper olympic speed skating NGC PF 69 CA$355auctionthou10.00.20
1980 6 g copper olympic archery NGC PF 69 UC$333auctionthou9.430.19
1998 1/2 oz silver Hong Kong expo panda NGC MS 69$130.27auction7.383.690.07
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$255auction7.227.220.14
1997 1 oz silver unicorn NGC MS 69$135auction3.823.820.07
2004 1/4 oz gold panda NGC MS 70$1195auction2.7433.80.68
1999 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$289auction8.188.180.16
2001 1 oz silver panda NCS NGC MS 69$137.5auction3.893.890.07
1999 1 oz silver panda small date NGC MS 69$152.51auction4.324.320.08
1991 1 oz silver panda large date NGC MS 69$163.61auction4.634.630.09
1998 1/2 oz silver colored proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$61auction3.451.720.03
1996 1/10 oz platinum proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$931auction5.6526.30.53
2006 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$360auction10.210.20.20
1979 1/2 oz silver year of the child NGC MS 69 MA$8500offer481.240.4.87
1984 20 g silver pagoda Kaiyuan Temple NGC PF 69 UC$1800Buy-It-Now79.351.01.03
1980 30 g silver piedfort olympic wrestling NGC PF 69 UC$7100auction208.201.4.07
1995 22 g silver invention & discovery block printing NGC PF 69 UC$229auction9.176.480.13
1995 1/4 oz gold panda small date NCS NGC MS 69$2199Buy-It-Now5.0462.31.26
1987 P gold proof panda 5 coin set NGC PF 69 UC$4938.88auction1.49139.2.83
2009 1/4 oz gold panda NGC MS 70$615offer1.4117.40.35
1997 1 oz silver unicorn NGC MS 69$170auction4.814.810.09
1990 P 1/2 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$1700Buy-It-Now1.9548.10.97
1996 22 g silver silk road caravan NCS NGC PF 69 UC$266Buy-It-Now10.67.530.15
1998 1 oz silver colored proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$201auction5.695.690.11
2007 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$143.5auction4.064.060.08
1995 1/2 oz silver panda large date PCGS MS 69$78auction4.422.210.04
1986 24 g silver Empress of China NGC MS 69$88auction3.232.490.05
2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary panda NGC MS 70$316auction8.958.950.18
1991 2 oz silver piedfort 10th anniversary proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$1198offer16.933.90.68
1996-1997 1 oz silver proof unicorn 2 coin set NGC PF 69 UC$831.89auction23.523.50.47
1985 15 g silver lunar ox NGC PF 69 UC$800offer47.022.60.45
1987 1 oz silver god of longevity NGC PF 68 UC$688auction19.419.40.39
Total 47 coins:$44954.65127325.7
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Oct 29, 09:53:11 am »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/

The Fishball Panda Index

Created by Fishball at the Silver Stackers forum, the Fishball Panda Index (FPI) is to be an index of entry level Pandas (bullion) which is to be updated on a monthly basis using data from Peter Anthony's pricepedia.

MonthSilver FPIGold 1/20 oz FPIGold 1/10 oz FPIGold 1/4 oz FPI
Aug 20111000100010001000
Sep 20111019.221012.691027.901107.29
Oct 20111025.631122.241142.991183.32
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Oct 29, 09:53:25 am »

Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Oct 29, 09:53:29 am »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!

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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Oct 29, 09:53:42 am »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Oct 29, 09:53:46 am »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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