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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #100 - Market coming to life! LBCMMR!  (Read 635 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Oct 26, 05:28:20 am »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

We're getting close to the end of October, so be sure to post photos of your coins posed with an LBCMMR note over at the LBC makes me rich topic. We send out Ebay gift certificates every month for our favorite ones. All you have to do is write a note that says "LBC makes me rich" and then take a photo of it with the coins you purchased arranged around it. It's free money! Or, I guess you could consider it a bribe in exchange for some eye-candy :)

As tamo42 notes below, the market is coming back to life. It's slow, and staggering around, but each new big list of sales is bigger than the last, so we're seeing a growth pattern here. It's about time too, since the busy season started 1 or 2 months ago, but has so far failed to impress us.  As I pointed out in list #99, this sluggish market was predicted in advance, so there's no surprises that this busy season has so far been more "muted" than the jaw-dropping busy seasons from previous years.

Overall, there has been strong confidence throughout the market, in anticipation of stronger prices in the near future. Although we've been through a weak patch, nobody is panicking, but there have been a few people with substantial stakes in rare modern Chinese coins that have become a bit nervous. I think that having reliable predictions and analyses of market "weather" available in the frequent articles at LBC has done much to keep the market more or less stable, compared to other markets. Nothing provokes fear more than uncertainty.

Yes, this is list #100! It is quite a milestone. I'm glad that it is so nearly coinciding with the modern Chinese coin market's upcoming 2012 milestone, where both lunars and pandas will get a boost from the year of the dragon and the 30th anniversary of the Chinese panda coin. It will be exciting to see what 2012's market environment is like, and whether it will attract the attention we're hoping it will.

Either way, even if 2012 itself is mostly unremarkable, I still think it will be seen as the boundary marking the end of an era, and the beginning of a new one. Lucky for us, we all staked our claims during the best possible time. From here, the long term picture for pre-2012 coins looks very good for almost everything, even the most common 2011 and 2010 1 oz silver pandas with mintages over 1 million.

In some of the older postings on this site, I remember mentioning that it would take 30 years of Chinese silver panda mintage to equal just one year of American silver Eagle mintage. There will come a time when owning ANY of the most common pre-2012 modern Chinese coins will be experienced like a rite of passage for a beginning collector who has finally become an intermediate or advanced collector.

The rare modern Chinese coin market is the best long term hard-asset investment market of any that I know of. Remember, this is a business website, not a coin website. We're business people, not coin cheerleaders. We're heavily into this market because we know where it is going.

I have mentioned in older articles that the last big boom in a coin market peaked approximately 7 years after the end of the Vietnam war. That is because it takes that long for the American economy to just BEGIN to recover from such incredible squandering of wealth and life. Well, the Iraq war seems to be winding down, but is not yet finished. Even if it actually ends as promised, we still have the Afghanistan war sucking the wealth out of the West. But, eventually that will have to end too, and then we can start looking forward to the largest gains we've ever seen before in the coin business.

That's saying a lot, considering that the rare modern Chinese coin market has already experienced record shattering growth that has never been seen before in numismatics. However, don't forget that 2012 isn't here yet, and compared to where we're going, we're still in a golden age. On top of that, 2012 isn't a wall - it'll just be a convenient year to pick out as the standard demarcation. In actuality, it'll be a gradual process as pre-2012 golden age coins and post-2012 coin issues become more and more separated from each other both in price, and availability.

While we're picking somewhat arbitrary dates to define an era, 2009 stands out as the last year pandas were produced with mintages under 1 million. I think we could say that 2009 to 2012 is the "width" of the demarcation that separates the golden-age coins from the later issues. 2009 to 2012 would be the near-vertical middle portion of a stretched-out S-shaped graph. Coins from the golden age will nearly continuously increase in price, year after year, decade after decade, while coins produced later will be much more flat, probably mostly following bullion values much like the pre-1965 "junk" silver coinage of the USA, with a few exceptions from time to time for rare dates, varieties, and grades.

The NCS conserved search near the beginning of the list, and the helpful searches near the end have been updated, so it'll be easier to find what you're looking for.
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 26, 04:03:47 pm by badon » Logged

Chinese coin investment articles
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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Oct 26, 05:41:59 am »

List #100, amazing. When badon started these lists, I really never thought it would get this far. But here we are, and the richer for it!

The Chinese coin market is exploding. When I took over listing the coins, we'd have on average something like 300 coins for each new list. This list has 532 coins, quite an increase. The sold listings from list #99 is over $90k, also quite an increase! It took me 19 minutes just to cut and paste all the posts (at about 10 seconds per post).

We seem to be see-sawing back and forth between ebb and flow on the sold listings. That's to be expected, more buying happens on the weekends than during the week. That's a large part of why we publish these lists Wednesdays and Saturdays. But the levels of high and low have been more extreme than usual as of late. That may make for good opportunities during the weekday auctions.

Lunars are starting to get scarce again. There are only 40 lunar coins in this list at present. For the 31 years of lunar coins out there, that's not a lot.

Oh, one change that may be of note: For all those who send me PMs asking my opinion on this or that, I'm going to be publishing those in the lists (references to names removed). Fair warning. Part of the purpose of LBC is to share business and investment ideas, so that should all be public discussion. It'd be easier to cut out the middle man (me) and just post your questions directly on the forum where others can see.
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 26, 06:10:41 am by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Oct 26, 05:42:04 am »

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 26, 06:00:04 am by tamo42 » Logged

Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Oct 26, 05:42:21 am »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Oct 26, 05:42:37 am »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #99 article

Coin Sold  Sale Price  Sale Type  Melt RatioAg oz priceAu oz price
1988 1/2 oz gold proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM$1028.99auction1.2030.80.60
2002 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$600auction18.018.00.35
2003 1 oz silver panda frosted NGC MS 70$482.77auction14.414.40.28
2007 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$320auction9.609.600.18
1991 P 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$325.06auction9.759.750.19
1992 P 1 oz silver proof panda mirror leaf NGC PF 69 UC$356.99auction10.710.70.20
2004 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$210.5auction6.316.310.12
1998 1 oz silver colored proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$180.27auction5.405.400.10
1985 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$1850auction63.955.51.08
1997 1 oz silver ancient paintings peacock NCS NGC MS 69$300offer9.009.000.17
1989 1 oz gold panda large date NGC MS 69$2499.99Buy-It-Now1.4675.01.46
2006 1 oz silver Beijing bank panda NGC MS 69$151.38auction4.544.540.08
1991 2 oz silver piedfort 10th anniversary proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$1080.56auction16.232.40.63
1995 1/20 oz platinum proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$2995auction38.389.81.75
2000 1 oz silver fan lunar dragon NGC MS 69$358auction10.710.70.20
1988 1 oz platinum proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$4576.2auction2.92137.2.67
1986 P 1/2 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$1226auction1.4336.70.71
1986 P 1 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$2251.2auction1.3167.51.31
1987 Y 1/10 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$260auction1.527.800.15
1998 1/2 oz silver colored proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$182.5auction10.95.470.10
1999 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$283auction8.498.490.16
1983 1/4 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$590auction1.3817.70.34
1985 1/10 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$265auction1.557.950.15
1986 1/10 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$215.13auction1.256.450.12
1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$678.89auction20.320.30.39
1998 P 1/10 oz gold culture of dragons NGC PF 69 UC$1036auction6.0631.00.60
1986 P 1/10 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$333auction1.949.990.19
1986 P 1/4 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$665auction1.5519.90.38
1997 1/20 oz gold auspicious matters NGC MS 69$460.55auction5.3913.80.26
1989 15 g silver lunar snake NGC PF 69 UC$360.56auction22.410.80.21
1980 15 g silver olympic soccer NGC PF 69 UC$732auction45.521.90.42
1988 8 g gold WWF golden haired monkey NGC PF 69 UC$778auction1.7723.30.45
1994 1 oz silver panda large date NGC MS 69$195.49auction5.865.860.11
2000 1 oz silver panda frosted NGC MS 69$446.03auction13.313.30.26
2000 1 oz silver panda mirror NGC MS 69$1647auction49.449.40.96
1993 1/4 oz gold ancient paintings peacock NGC MS 69$903.99auction2.1127.10.52
1993 1 oz silver ancient paintings peacock NGC PF 69 UC$716auction21.421.40.41
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$146auction4.384.380.08
1986 24 g silver Empress of China NGC MS 69$88.99auction3.452.660.05
1986 24 g silver Empress of China NGC MS 69$91.89auction3.572.750.05
1990 1 oz silver panda large date NGC MS 69$188.58offer5.655.650.11
1998 1 oz gold panda small date NGC MS 69$4200auction2.45126.2.45
1990 2 oz silver piedfort dragon & phoenix NGC PF 69 UC$1375auction20.641.20.80
1994 1 oz silver Munich expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$712.89auction21.321.30.41
1996 1 oz gold proof unicorn NCS NGC PF 69 UC$8413auction4.92252.4.92
1996 1 oz silver proof panda NCS NGC PF 69 UC$715auction21.421.40.41
1996 1/2 oz gold panda small date NGC MS 69$2025auction2.3760.71.18
1999 1/4 oz gold panda large date serif 1 NGC MS 70$5888Buy-It-Now13.7176.3.44
1998 1/10 oz gold lunar tiger NGC PF 69 UC$650auction3.8019.50.38
1999 1 oz silver panda small date NGC MS 69$232.5auction6.976.970.13
2006 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$348offer10.410.40.20
1987 5 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$759.99Buy-It-Now4.5622.80.44
1987 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$525auction18.115.70.30
1980 8 g gold olympic skiing NGC PF 69 UC$1243auction2.8237.20.72
1986 8 g gold lunar tiger NGC PF 69 UC$2276auction5.1868.21.33
2004 1/2 oz palladium proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$791auction2.4523.70.46
2005 1/2 oz palladium proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$738auction2.2822.10.43
1994 1 oz gold proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$10000auction5.85300.5.85
1999 1/4 oz gold panda large date serif 1 NCS NGC MS 69$3888Buy-It-Now9.10116.2.27
1996 1/20 oz gold panda small date PCGS MS 69$177.5auction2.075.320.10
1989 P 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$240.5auction7.217.210.14
1998 1/2 oz silver colored proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$63.38auction3.801.900.03
1996 1 oz silver panda large date NGC MS 69$106.35auction3.193.190.06
1989 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$116.09auction3.483.480.06
2005 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$290auction8.708.700.16
1997 1/10 oz gold auspicious matters NGC MS 69$228.06auction1.336.840.13
1989 1 oz silver New York expo panda NCS NGC PF 69 UC$621auction18.618.60.36
1990 1 oz silver panda small date NGC MS 69$178.5auction5.355.350.10
2008 1/10 oz gold panda NGC MS 70$300offer1.759.000.17
1995 1 oz silver proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$895.05auction26.826.80.52
1992 15 g silver unearthed artifacts deer NGC PF 69 UC$768auction47.723.00.44
1999 2/3 oz silver scallop flower lunar rabbit NGC PF 69 UC$461auction20.713.80.26
1997 1 oz gold panda large date NGC MS 69$2495auction1.4674.81.46
1989 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$223.5auction1.306.700.13
1988 1 oz gold San Francisco expo dragon NGC PF 69 UC$3961auction2.31118.2.31
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$184.58auction5.535.530.10
2001 1 oz silver panda NCS NGC MS 69$159.99offer4.804.800.09
1989 P 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$231.39auction6.946.940.13
1989 5 oz silver Kuan Yin NGC PF 69 UC$3105.56auction18.693.11.81
1996 1 oz silver panda small date NGC MS 69$127auction3.813.810.07
1993 1/2 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$129.88auction7.793.890.07
2010 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$134.51auction4.034.030.07
2005 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$192.5auction5.775.770.11
1980 9 g copper olympic wrestling NGC PF 69 UC$405auctionthou12.10.23
1998 1 oz silver panda small date NGC MS 69$168.47auction5.055.050.09
Total 85 coins:$92800.7278454.3
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Oct 26, 05:42:50 am »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/

The Fishball Panda Index

Created by Fishball at the Silver Stackers forum, the Fishball Panda Index (FPI) is to be an index of entry level Pandas (bullion) which is to be updated on a monthly basis using data from Peter Anthony's pricepedia.

MonthSilver FPIGold 1/20 oz FPIGold 1/10 oz FPIGold 1/4 oz FPI
Aug 20111000100010001000
Sep 20111019.221012.691027.901107.29
Oct 20111025.631122.241142.991183.32
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Oct 26, 05:43:02 am »

Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Oct 26, 05:43:07 am »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Oct 26, 05:43:20 am »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
 
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Oct 26, 05:43:23 am »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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