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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #99 - Anniversary pandas, lunars, big size  (Read 806 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Oct 22, 07:22:31 am »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

Most of my commentaries have been getting included with each new list. I had originally planned to do them separately from the list, but with tamo42 ensuring the list gets published twice each week, there hasn't been much need to put up-to-date commentary anywhere else. But, something happened a few days ago that resulted in an urgent late-night posting of commentary #64 in its own article. If you haven't seen it already, please go read Modern Chinese coin investments commentary #64 - The golden age of China's coins. In this commentary, I'd like to recap and add a few more interesting bits of info, so keep reading.

2012 is end of an era for the Chinese coin market due to it being both the year of the dragon, and the 30th anniversary of the Chinese panda coin. These are two big events for both of China's flagship mint products, and the market is now - after 30 years - finally well-tuned to eagerly receive the full mintage that the mint decides to produce.


Lunars


In the early days of lunars, China's "original" lunars were being overshadowed in popularity by similarly huge countries with far smaller populations. The lunar offerings of Canada and Australia were hot commodities amongst collectors, with innovative minting technologies and never-before-seen artistic styles.

The coins of Australia eventually stole the show with their stunning 2000 dragon that was a true jaw-dropper, and arguably one of the most beautiful coins ever minted. That coin convinced the world that the Australian coins had to be taken seriously by collectors throughout the world. But, they still were seen as mostly collector coins, without the word "investment" getting mentioned very often. That started to change in 2004. A few very smart people were noticing how popular the Australian lunars were, and that they had very low mintages compared to similarly popular Western coinage, and so the investments started.

Australian lunars were a fantastic investment, and they did better than any other coins for several years. At one point a complete set of gold lunars was selling for somewhere in the $100,000 range! Remember, those coins were originally sold when $500 per ounce gold was an impressive historic achievement, so with only 12 coins in the set, we're talking about some pretty ridiculous profits those investors were making...until prices dropped.

You know why prices for the Australian lunars dropped? Because lunars aren't Australian, they're CHINESE! Even Australia's own marketing material describes them as:

"The Chinese Lunar Calendar - captured on bullion coins."

I remember buying gold CHINESE lunars for only a little more than bullion value back in the mid-2000's. When prices got very high on the Australian coins, it was because they were gorgeous and had low mintages. When prices dropped, it was partly because investors were taking profits to invest in Chinese coins. Take a look at the Australian 2000 dragon. It's a copy of one of the dragons from the ancient Nine-Dragon Wall in China's Imperial Beihai Park. If you look closely at the several dragon designs, you can find the dragon used on China's 2000 2/3 oz silver scallop flower dragon (and the others too). When an Australian silver dragon has a mintage of 118,697 and the authentic Chinese 2000 2/3 oz silver scallop dragon has a mintage of 6800, it's not hard to figure out which coin is the better investment.

While the prices of Australian lunars were dropping, prices of Chinese lunars were steadily rising. A portion of the investor money that was in the copycat Australian lunars has been moving over to authentic original Chinese lunar coins, but not enough to push prices up to anything even close to realistic valuations for a low-mintage flagship coin series of China. The Australian lunars aren't Australian, but Chinese lunars are Chinese. For years China's coins were so disrespected that people would buy foreign copies over the authentic Chinese coins. Afterall, if Chinese people didn't care enough about their cultural heritage to buy their own coins, why should anyone else? Thankfully, all that has changed.

China's coins now command significant respect not only from the international community, but also from patriotic Chinese people. China has been making their lunar series of coins since 1981, and most of the dragon year coins have surviving investment grade populations of less than 10,000 - some, like the 2000 2/3 oz silver type, have much lower mintages.

Last I heard the Australian mint was already sold out of 2012 dragons, and it's not even 2012 yet (they were already distributing them). What does that tell you about the direction China's lunars are headed? By the way, Xu Hong (in China!)is one of the biggest Ebay dealers in Chinese coins. Guess what he's freshly added to his inventory? 2012 Australian lunar dragons! Why do you suppose a shrewd dealer in China cares at all about Australian lunar dragons? Dragons are HOT!

If you don't have lunars yet, it's time to start shopping. Just make sure you buy the rare, older Chinese lunars, not the Australian ones. Dragons are going to be so hot, it might get tempting to taste the grass on the other side of the fence, but once the dragon mania dies down in 2013, nobody will care as much about the Australian lunars, but the rare Chinese lunars will just keep getting more expensive. That's what you want as an investor.


Pandas


Peter Yeung of PandaAmerica answered questions about where all the 2007 25th anniversary pandas have gone in a post on the Chinese Coin Forum:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=4284.msg22954#msg22954

So, one of the biggest dealers in the world is buying up 25th anniversary pandas because he thinks they're too cheap, and that they'll double in price when the 30th anniversary comes in 2012. I hope you bought some of these before PandaAmerica cleaned out the market! They come in 1/25th oz gold and 1/4 oz silver types, both proof. My favorite is the silver, especially in a 70 grade.

What about the other anniversary pandas? Oh yes, those, and all other pandas will benefit from the recognition that the historic 30th anniversary provides for the Chinese panda series of coins. You might be wondering why we're having a 30th anniversary AGAIN. Well, the 2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary panda was not commemorating the 30th anniversary of the panda coins that began in 1982 - it commemorates the 30th anniversary of ALL modern Chinese coins, which began 3 years earlier in 1979. Still, it's a panda, and I'm sure it will get swept up in the 30th anniversary enthusiasm also.

Pandas have done very, very well in late 2010 and much of 2011, especially the top, rarest, investment grade pandas. Prices are currently reduced from their recent highs, which leaves some room for further upward movement in 2012. However, while we were all shocked by the $14,000 price tag of the 1998 1/2 oz gold large date panda, but there isn't much talk about record prices for lunars yet. In fact, I can't think of anything in the lunars that stands out as much as the pandas. Therefore, I think the lunars have more short term room for growth than the pandas do, especially since many very nice rare specimens are still quite affordable despite their ridiculously low surviving investment grade populations, while many of the pandas have become to expensive for entry-level buyers.


Past predictions


I have been getting messages asking very good questions about why I don't explain my reasoning when I say something that normally ought to be explained. In one of the recent older posts, I predicted we would have a "muted" market, but I didn't give much explanation as to why I thought that. And, as usual, the prediction was correct. I feel Nick Brown at has done a good job of explaining a few of the significant factors involved in the Chinese coin market, although I believe most of them that he cites are actually symptoms, and not really the true cause (the true cause is larger than the coin market):

http://majesticrarities.com/pages/blog/constantly-asked-questions-soft-market/

Does it make me any less correct if I don't explain why I'm saying what I'm saying? No, of course not.

I said it first on 2011 August 10 in Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #78 - Buy & hold, secrets, 1998 large dates:

The precious metals markets are on fire. Gold has passed platinum in value. Silver is booming up to the $40 level...but I think the enthusiasm for hard assets, including coins, is going to be muted briefly...

I said it again, and got more specific about the coins on 2011 August 27 in Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #83 - Consolidation:

I am expecting a little more muted coin rally than the fundamentals are geared for. I think we'll get a much better performance after the normal busy season.

My first mention that I thought the market was going to be "muted" on August 10th was nearly a week before the August 2011 auctions initiated the busy season. It was also before the Fed meeting ocurred where it was decided not to allow inflation to resume. It would appear that I had no way to know that the market was going to be much different than all previous busy seasons - Regardless of any other clues and cues that happened previously, if the Fed had decided to allow inflation to boost the economy prior to the holiday buying season, my prediction would have been wrong.

I went out on a limb and made a correct prediction, again, without any obvious way for anyone to know for certain what was about to happen. Was it a lucky guess? Not a chance. Nobody makes correct publicly-posted lucky guesses for 8 years straight.

So, what were my responses to the people asking for further explanations about how I come up with my predictions? After some lively discussion, I just concluded by saying that I'm basically not willing to expound in great detail about it. By the time I get done explaining it, 20% of readers will be thoroughly convinced, 20% will be thoroughly confused, 20% will think it's all hot air, 20% won't care, and I have no idea what the last 20% will think of it. I'm not a student trying to impress my professor with a rigorous term paper.

Instead, I prefer to defer to my track record for being right when questioned for the logic behind my conclusions, and then add it to the list a few months later. It's almost as fast as explaining it in detail, but a whole lot more convincing.

For now, all I'm asking is that you pay attention to what I'm telling you, and not dismiss it if, for some reason, I don't explain how I came to my conclusions. If you take it on faith that what I'm telling you is reliable even though you can't verify it, the responsibility is still on you to make the best investment decisions for yourself, in your own unique circumstances. No amount of foreknowledge can achieve anything meaningful on its own, without some effort and thought put into how it will be used.

I'm almost always receptive to question, especially if there's some specific detail you want explained.


Why such small sales in list #98?


$18k+ isn't all that small, but let's pretend it is so we can lead into some more great info.

do you think that the apparent increase in ebay buy-it-now auctions has anything to do with the slowdown? when people list interesting coins at ridiculous buy-it-now prices, it seems to deaden interest, as opposed to when someone lists a nice coin at a low starting bid, which seems to generate excitement and interest.

I think that there are a lot of coin sellers who don't understand anything about eBay :) (slowdown or not).

Yes, high Buy-It-Now listings generally don't get bought. Especially from smart LBC readers who have the research info on mintage, grade rarity, and previous sales at their fingertips.

Listings that have Buy-It-Nows and an auction starting price very close to the Buy-It-Now price also have a hard time selling.

These listings that don't sell get relisted and relisted, and end up creating what I call "listing fatigue." You've seen the same coin put up 5 times and it makes you think that the coin is much more available than it really is. If the seller were willing to listen to the market and sell for a reasonable price, the true rarity of these coins would be come clearer.

But, they still have good coins so they still get put in the list if appropriate. Always keep in mind that I only put up the best available coins in the list. The 1987 platinum proof panda above is $1500 or so above the most recent sale. The reason I put it in the list is that it's the only one available!

In general, only the lowest price Buy-It-Nows and auctions will be put in the list.

Oh, one other thing, don't be shy about using the offer button. If the seller has put up a Buy-It-Now, or offer listing, then he is probably open to negotiating. If the Buy-It-Now price is well above recent sales, make a fair offer. Just be careful about trying to bargain too hard. If the Buy-It-Now is reasonable, you'll generally miss out while someone pays the asking price.

I agree that some seller’s prices are way to high (e.g., AU3000).  However that being said, many experienced sellers won’t or don’t lower their prices for several reasons:

1)   They know that their coins for sale are either scarce or rare, and replacement costs are high or non-existent

2)   They typically buy ungraded coins and have them graded.  Since many quality OMP coins are getting harder to find, they may only end up with one 69, when they bought 2 or 3.  This cost is passed onto the buyer

3)   Experienced sellers of China coins very rarely sell at no reserve auctions, unless there is a high starting price.  Many sellers that have engaged in auctions with low starting prices have experienced very poor results recently (not always the case, but they won’t take the risk)

4)   Many auctions you see are from non-experienced sellers, or the seller has a very low cost basis (my guess is many low cost basis coins have already changed hands, hence the high current prices)

5)   This cost basis issue could be one of the reasons.  It is possible that many sellers sold all their cheap inventory over the last 12 months.  Replaced that inventory with higher cost coins.  The seller is still expecting returns that they previously experienced and are therefore unwilling to lower prices.

My answer is that you should pay what you have to pay. I haven't used that phrase often lately, but it seems it's time to dust it off and put it to work. Good coins are out there, going unsold. Get a cheap price if you can, but pay what you have to pay if you must. There are coins available right now that have a combined mintage and grade rarity sufficient to make the coin one of just a few known surviving specimens. Be prudent in how you choose to blow your cash, but when you find the right coin, get it.


Large size coins


To mention Nick Brown again, he's got some interesting info in his blogs. I don't read them regularly, but every few months or so I'll read through his site to see what has changed. He's updating his blog more frequently now, apparently to address the weak hands that are worried about their investments. He's absolutely right, quit worrying. But, that's not what I want this section to be about. This section is about the coins I think you SHOULD worry about. Well, "worry" is too strong a term for the Chinese coin bull market.

I suppose I want to differentiate which investments I think are better than others - It's hard to go wrong in this market, so I'll have to make up some fictional and non-Chinese examples to make this work. Of all the Chinese coins I can think of, you pretty much have to buy a 2011 1 oz silver panda in a no-name 70 grade holder, with white spots all over the coin, and a $400 price tag before I'd say, yep, you definitely screwed up :)

Every time I've mentioned Nick Brown, I've had only the most glowing praise to say about him. He is truly a dynamo. He specializes in some of the hottest investment grade coins ever seen in the history of numismatics. Most of these are large sizes of 5 oz or bigger. I love them, Nick loves them, and his customers love them. Lots of people made their first or 20th million dollars on these coins. However, I have one significant criticism: Rarity DOES sometimes go out of style, and I think some of the most "relatively common" large size coins are at a good time to sell, especially the recent hefty gold ones.

The key phrase here is "relatively common". Nick Brown at Majestic Rarities doesn't even deal in the common coins I'm speaking of - the only reason I'm picking on him is because his catchphrase "Rarity never goes out of style", which he and many others believe to be correct, is ALMOST always true. The devil is in the details. There are some rare cases with relatively common rare coins where it might not be true. I know that sentence was just confusing nonsense, so here's the examples I promised:

How many people might want to buy your particular coin? My rule of thumb is that I will expect it to take at least 2 months to sell a key 5 figure coin ($10k+) for its current market value, because that's a safe figure for how long it'll take for the top buyer, the seller, and the money to all come together in the same place at the same time to do the transaction if normal market volatility is accounted for, and a reasonable price can be agreed upon. At most, I expect to be able to sell one of these coins in 18 months, assuming the market conditions aren't favorable but not unusual, and I still want a high price, so I have to wait even longer for the right buyer.

This is in a rarified end of the market where there's probably only 1 or 2 of these coins that is being publicly offered at any given time. The mintage for such a key, popular coin would probably 500 or less, with a few unusual exceptions. $10k+ is a lot of money, but chances are, there's probably between 1 and 5 buyers who would be interested in my coin in a 2 to 18 month timeframe. For the combination of price and rarity, I can reasonably expect to be able to sell my coin when I'm ready, within that timeframe, without any trouble. Of course, anyone else who chose to sell would also have the same reasonable expectation.

What I've just described to you is a strong market. That particular combination of rarity, popularity, price, and financially eligible potential buyers, is the formula for stable or rising prices. That's what I want, as an investor.

But, what if my coin wasn't a key coin in its series, was the same price or more, and maybe has a mintage of 5 times higher - but just for kicks, let's say it's half, at 250 coins. Now, even though the coin has a significantly lower mintage, the formula is all wrong.

Since it's not a popular key coin, not all of the financially eligible buyers who could afford it will be interested in it. Only SOME of them will want it, if they're collecting the whole series AND they don't already have that particular coin. If it's a big series, that means we're talking about collectors who have a LOT more money than the coin requires to be purchased. There's fewer of those buyers, and with ridiculous amounts of money available to them and other equally (un)desirable coins from the series available, if they don't like your coin due to a minor flaw, they won't buy it and you'll have to wait for the next perfect buyer to purchase your coin, possibly years later. It sounds like not such a good investment compared to the earlier example.

The investor that bought the coin in the second example might end up selling his coin for bullion value just to get out of it, in a variety of circumstances that are more common than our current one-track bullish market condition. If 5 sellers decide they want out, the numismatic premium price above the bullion value might never come back in your lifetime.

Canada minted only 4 or 5 2007 100 kg gold Maple coins. Technically, it may be the key to the whole maple series. And you know what? When one of the owners decided to sell, all he got was bullion value for it. It was a $4 million coin, for just the bullion! A few people might both have the money, and the desire, for such a coin AT BULLION VALUE, but the auction did not attract the minimum 2 competing bidders who were willing to pay for numismatic value, so it went cheap. Canada may sound like an unusual country to pick as an example, but it's not. Canadians are as proud of their country as any in the world, without actually crossing the line into fascism :) They're so proud of their coins, that their coins have been known to take the crown from American collectors for the world's most valuable coin.

You know which coins usually get the top spot for world's most valuable coin? Almost always silver, but sometimes base metal like nickel, and maybe once or twice that I can think of it was gold.

There's a ceiling on the lowest value of a coin, and an entire collection of the coin series, that whittles down the market until it's so small, the coins essentially become worthless. Most normal silver coins start out at around $50. Most normal gold coins start at around $2000. BIG DIFFERENCE, and radically different markets for both.

I don't buy big gold coins unless they're very rare, and either part of a small series, or a key coin. They have to have everything a collector could ever want, or it'll be too expensive to get more expensive (too big to fail? unsinkable?), and that's a bad investment. The Chinese market is a bit different from the Western market - I cut it a little more slack because of the East's vast experience with, and love of, big boat shaped ingots of bullion. You don't find those things much in the relatively poor West. I don't know exactly why that is, it's just the way it is.

It's changing now, as the West tries to catch up to the East, but still, the place for big coins is China. So far, I have never had any interest in any Western large-size coin, whatsoever, in any metal. But for Chinese coins, I love them - Nick Brown has shown the world what they can do, and it's no parlor trick. There's real, BIG money in large size Chinese coins, especially in the super rarities he specializes in. But, you have to be picky, and you have to get the formula right, or you're taking a significant risk that you could lose everything very fast.

Silver is the safest large size investment. I still prefer key coins, but for the most part, I think any large size modern Chinese silver coin is a safe investment, even recent 2011 ones with higher mintages. Some are better than others, of course, but they're all "safe" if you have no problem giving them the time they need to do their thing. Big Chinese gold has done very well, and I don't think it's going to turn into a disaster like Canada's 100 kg coin did - that was an extreme example in many ways, to illustrate a point. The entire Canadian market is supported by too few people who could toss out a bid on last-minute bankruptcy sale, like what happened with Canada's 100 kg gold maple. That's the advantage China has over Canada - lots more wealthy people, who are for the most part very careful and methodical about how they handle their money.

I like pandas, panda medals, gods medals, unicorns, three kingdoms, invention & discovery, etc, etc, etc. The large size modern Chinese silver market has a lot of very rare and affordable coins that are within shouting distance of the main series of coins where fresh buyers will come from. Some of the large size series are actually the main series, like the god of war & wealth, god of longevity, etc. The smaller coins are the oddballs in that category. Coins with populations of a few hundred cost less than $2000 - in other words, the risk is low, the stakes are low, and the potential is high. The formula looks pretty good for those coins.

5 oz silver and larger pandas have popularity going for them, but the number of coins in the series makes it so you have to make sure you get the rarest coins you can first, just like you do with the regular main series of normal sized 1 oz coins. If you can't get the key coins first, you're better off buying in a cheaper area of the market.


My choices

* Coins in a 70 grade.
* Lunars, starting with dragons, and expanding to the whole sets. 2012 year of the dragon will be lunar-mania.
* 1983 15 g silver pig (key)
* 1981 15 g silver rooster
* 1982 15 g silver dog
* 1984 15 g silver rat
* Dragon and phoenix (marriage theme symbolism).
* Peacocks (marriage theme symbolism).
* Pandas, especially silver, the rarer the better.
* Underpriced invention & discovery, especially silver.
* Child-themed coins
* Other 1979 dated early coins and medals.
* Almost all medals are underpriced - buy the rarest, most popular ones first.

Tips:

* Pay what you have to pay for good coins that stubbornly do not drop in price.
* Focus your purchases on rarity together with popularity during this weak market.
* Sprinkle in some underpriced coins to ensure you don't miss out on big percentage gains in the cheaper coins, if you don't mind the hassle of reselling soon.
* Stick with the best coins available, in the most popular types (prefer 1 oz over 5 oz, for example).
* Be sure to continually upgrade your coins so you can keep up with the market as better coins accelerate ahead of lesser coins.

Remember, there are several kinds of rarity, in order of importance:

* Mintage rarity
* Grade rarity
* Relative rarity within a series ("key" coins)
* Variety rarity/popularity (you have to have popularity too)

It is too late for blame, but not for learning. Separated, or together, we are all still a family. Every one of us. We have missed you, very much. The loneliness will leave when the forgiveness comes. Bring forgiveness, and come a little closer, for YueYue.
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 23, 05:25:09 pm by badon » Logged

Chinese coin investment articles
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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Oct 22, 07:22:55 am »

The past few days have been a roller coaster! After having a huge sold coins section in list #98, trading activity dropped off to a very low level for this list. It is normal for the Saturday lists to have fewer solds than the Wednesday lists, but this is a bit more extreme than usual.

Fundamentally, I think many sellers are jumping the gun and asking prices that are too far above the market. Right now only 1/3 of the listings here are in auction format, the rest being some variety of Buy-It-Now. That is very unusual as I will always list an auction before I'll list a Buy-It-Now if there is a choice.

On Friday, we had a huge set of gold listings put up by one of the biggest panda sellers in the world. My guess is that they are trying to free up some inventory in order to bring in the new 2012 dragon coins.

Now is the time to be loading up on lunars of all kinds, especially dragons.
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 22, 09:25:46 am by tamo42 » Logged

Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Oct 22, 07:23:01 am »

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 22, 07:48:35 am by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Oct 22, 07:23:18 am »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Oct 22, 07:24:45 am »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #98 article

Coin Sold  Sale Price  Sale Type  Melt RatioAg oz priceAu oz price
1989 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$117.53.713.710.07
1990 1 oz silver panda small date NCS NGC MS 69$1635.155.150.09
1994 1 oz silver unicorn NGC MS 69$176.55.585.580.10
1987 1/20 oz gold Tokyo expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$3734.5111.70.22
2000 1 oz silver panda frosted NGC MS 69$43413.713.70.26
2006 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$355.0111.211.20.21
2000 1 oz silver panda frosted NGC MS 69$421.8813.313.30.25
1995 1/20 oz gold panda large panda NGC MS 69$270.563.278.550.16
2003 1 oz silver panda frosted NGC MS 70$53016.716.70.32
1987 P 1/2 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$1249.991.5139.50.75
1997 1 oz silver panda small date NGC MS 69$116.493.683.680.07
1998 1/4 oz gold panda small date PCGS MS 69$21505.1967.91.29
1992 1/2 oz gold panda small date NGC MS 69$1313.881.5841.50.79
2000 1/4 oz gold panda frosted PCGS MS 69$9702.3430.60.58
1990 1 oz gold panda large date PCGS MS 69$29001.7591.71.75
1991 1 oz gold panda large date PCGS MS 69$32501.96102.1.96
1991 P 1 oz gold panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM$39502.38124.2.38
Total 17 coins:$18741.81592.11.3
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Oct 22, 07:25:22 am »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/

The Fishball Panda Index

Created by Fishball at the Silver Stackers forum, the Fishball Panda Index (FPI) is to be an index of entry level Pandas (bullion) which is to be updated on a monthly basis using data from Peter Anthony's pricepedia.

MonthSilver FPIGold 1/20 oz FPIGold 1/10 oz FPIGold 1/4 oz FPI
Aug 20111000100010001000
Sep 20111019.221012.691027.901107.29
Oct 20111025.631122.241142.991183.32
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Oct 22, 07:25:36 am »

Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF
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Neal McSpadden
Honest Silver and Gold, LP - Earn 3% a Month By Turning Silver and Gold into Cash Flow
The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Oct 22, 07:25:40 am »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!

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Neal McSpadden
Honest Silver and Gold, LP - Earn 3% a Month By Turning Silver and Gold into Cash Flow
The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Oct 22, 07:25:52 am »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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Neal McSpadden
Honest Silver and Gold, LP - Earn 3% a Month By Turning Silver and Gold into Cash Flow
The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Oct 22, 07:25:58 am »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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Neal McSpadden
Honest Silver and Gold, LP - Earn 3% a Month By Turning Silver and Gold into Cash Flow
The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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