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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #98 - Feed success long term, inflation  (Read 6023 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Oct 19, 09:11:21 am »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

The market is coming back to life. Some sellers are pulling their good coins from the market, in anticipation of higher prices. Many sellers with unsold inventory consistently resist the temptation to lower their prices to score sales of the best coins, which apparently they'd rather keep.

Batman's posts are often front-page material here at LBC, but lately they have been disappearing into the noise since he started posting them over at the Chinese Coin Forum. Still, I managed to find this one that provocatively reminds us that even the most common of pandas may still be very undervalued, due to the near constant discovery and improving recognition of varieties:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=4266.0

With so much attention focused on the lunars, it's tempting to cash out panda profits to jump into the lunar market as the sectors rotate. However, it might be wise to refrain from selling your pandas just for that purpose, and instead fund your lunar purchase other ways that don't involve selling your good investments.

My investing motto is "starve failure, feed success". If some of my investments are doing better than others, I preferentially allocate additional funding for the best investments, at the expense of the worse ones. When it comes time to sell, I sell the losers before I sell the winners. In general, I don't take profits on good investments, I just let them keep running.

The end result of that is that my investment portfolio has become heavily concentrated in very rare key coins. The not so rare coins tend to get bought and then sold more frequently. At the moment, I can't think of any coin with a mintage under 1000 that I have ever sold. In fact, I'm having trouble thinking of any coins with mintages under 5000 that I have ever sold. Keep those rare coins - it will cost you more to replace them than you'll be able to get by selling them.

In another bit of news, ghostrider80811 reports that China has been selling U.S. Treasuries in response to some unkind words the American Congress has said about China:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=4271.0

The effect of that is 100% pure inflation. That's just one more factor that's coming together to cause an avalanche of buying activity. A confluence of various factors is what characterizes a predictably strong market, and a safe investment. Most of the investors in the modern Chinese coin market have wisely ignored recent price weakness. Instead, most of us have treated it as a buying opportunity, and I think it won't be long before we get to experience the rewards of our consistent confidence in the modern Chinese coin market.

We called the slow season the "upgrade season", which officially ended in August with the start of the auction season, even while price weakness continued to persist. Now, nearing the end of October, we're finally seeing many different signals that seem to indicate increasing market strength as we continue into the economically-boosted holiday buying season.

Here's some more interesting chatter from the last list #97:

With only $24,000 in coins sold this week form this list, this is a weak market, with volumes below many weeks this past summer, and many items selling below what they could have sold for in the summer. Items are selling at stronger discounts to Pricepedia prices, unlike the previous trend which was to add a percentage onto the most recent Pricepedia prices. Gold has not finished correcting yet but as it is in a long term bull, it is stronger than silver which seems just plain weak. The considerable number of auctions for investment grade coins indicates some seller still think prices could weaken further, so why not get market price now and go back on the stink bid later.

I actually think $24k sold is pretty healthy. My older articles back from earlier in the year sometimes had only a few hundred dollars in sales. I remember thinking how great it was if the sold coins list topped $5000. Buying activity is vigorous, but not aggressive.

I think we're at the bottom. That doesn't mean we're going to go up from here, necessarily, because we could bounce around near the bottom for a while before we clearly see the market lifting. I predicted that this busy season would be "muted", and indeed, that's what we're seeing. But, it seems like we haven't actually reached the busy season yet...

...

Just a few months ago you could buy as many 1999 1 oz silver Beijing expo pandas as you wanted at around $100 each, and they were only about double that in a 69 grade. Then, they boomed to $400 to $700 in 69 grade. Occasionally one will go cheap on auction, but asking prices for the investment grade coins has remained high, while ungraded and lower grade coins have dropped back again.

My interpretation of that is that there is strength in the investment grade coins because people know they're rare and hard to find, so sellers aren't letting them go cheap. There is still weakness that is holding back sales, but prices generally have not dropped. Sellers seem to be willing to hold on to them as long as they have to, which means the consensus is that the current market situation is temporary.

Another interesting thing to look at is the page views at the Chinese Coin Forum:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?action=stats

At the bottom, you'll see that September 2011 was the second busiest month EVER, for the CCF. June was #1 at almost 300,000 page views. So, I think your observation is correct that summer was quite busy, and things got slower after the summer - but there are a few independent indicators that show increasing interest in investing in modern Chinese coins that is approaching the levels we had back in June.

It really does appear that market activity is increasing.

I would like to end with a note that, while our busy season has so far been "muted" just like I predicted. I think we'll stay "muted" for all of the remainder of 2011, in comparison to previous years, but everything will change in 2012. It's too soon to say for sure, but the early 2012 portion of the busy season may take the market to new, unprecedented gains - or, we may have to wait until the late 2012 busy season.

The wildcard that I'm not sure about is how the market will respond to the introduction of the 2012 Chinese lunar dragons. If the market gets enthusiastic about it, we could see some more perkiness in the market a little sooner than the end of 2011. Pay close attention to how the market reacts to the 2012 lunar dragon, and you'll get a better idea of what the early part of 2012 will be like.

My choices

Focus your purchases on rarity together with popularity during this weak market. Sprinkle in some underpriced coins to ensure you don't miss out on big percentage gains in the cheaper coins. Stick with the best coins available, in the most popular types (prefer 1 oz over 5 oz, for example). Be sure to continually upgrade your coins so you can keep up with the market as better coins accelerate ahead of lesser coins.

* Coins in a 70 grade.
* Lunars, starting with dragons, and expanding to the whole sets. 2012 year of the dragon will be lunar-mania.
* 1983 15 g silver pig (key)
* 1981 15 g silver rooster
* 1982 15 g silver dog
* 1984 15 g silver rat
* Dragon and phoenix (marriage theme symbolism).
* Peacocks (marriage theme symbolism).
* Pandas, especially silver, the rarer the better.
* Expo pandas, especially gold accented silver ones, and silver Munich expo medals.
* 1979 year of the child, and possibly other child-themed coins like the 1989 children's fund panda .
* Other 1979 dated early coins and medals.
* Almost all medals are underpriced - buy the rarest, most popular ones first.
* 1990 goldfish medals.
* Gods medals (longevity, war & wealth, mazu, buddhas, etc).
* Underpriced invention & discovery, especially silver.

Remember, there are several kinds of rarity, in order of importance:

* Mintage rarity
* Grade rarity
* Relative rarity within a series ("key" coins)
* Variety rarity/popularity (you have to have popularity too)
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 19, 07:31:11 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Oct 19, 09:12:12 am »

Can I say, "Boom goes the dynamite!" or is that too cliche?

I don't know, but what I do know is that activity has picked up quite a bit in the last few days. There has been a lot of buying going on, to the tune of over $80k in coins traded since the last list was put up on Saturday. There have been reports of large buyers coming in and wiping out the majority of a dealer's stock. Other indications that buying is picking up:

The 1994 1 oz gold proof unicorn sold for over $13k, well above the last sale of $10k.

The 1994 bimetallic proof panda sold for $400 more than the most recent high.

The average coin sold from the last list was over $1,000!

So, will this continue, or is this just a spike? We are at the beginning of the traditional holiday season in the East. Gifts of gold typically see much higher demand during this part of the year. So it could be that this is a short-term spike, I think that the way forward is up. badon has stated several times recently that he thinks this holiday season will be a more muted than recent years, so keep that in mind.

On a slightly different note, it seems we are getting more supply of lunars. Lunars are one of the most popular series, especially with the 2012 dragon coins just around the corner. Dragons especially (as always) will benefit, but it seems all the other lunars will come along for the ride to some degree.

My choices are still in those bottom-level pandas. They have started their moves off the bottoms of their ranges, but I still rate them as a good buy. That's in addition to the perennial recommendations of dragons, 5 oz proof pandas, and fractional gold pandas.
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 19, 11:15:08 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Oct 19, 09:12:20 am »

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 19, 09:28:40 am by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Oct 19, 09:12:29 am »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Oct 19, 09:12:48 am »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #97 article

Coin Sold  Sale Price  Sale Type  Melt RatioAg oz priceAu oz price
1983 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$4900auction178.154.2.96
1983 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$3950auction143.124.2.38
1984 1/4 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$535Buy-It-Now1.2916.90.32
1984 15 g silver lunar rat NGC PF 69 UC$1076.92auction70.634.00.65
1984 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$2205auction80.369.71.33
1985 15 g silver lunar ox NGC PF 69 UC$800auction52.425.30.48
1985 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$2125auction77.467.21.28
1985 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$1875auction68.359.21.13
1986 1 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$1850auction1.1158.51.11
1986 24 g silver Empress of China NGC MS 69$113.5auction4.653.580.06
1986 P 1/2 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$1125.1auction1.3635.50.68
1987 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$750auction27.323.70.45
1987 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$685auction24.921.60.41
1987 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$725auction26.422.90.43
1987 P 1 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$2237.2auction1.3570.71.35
1987 P 1/4 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$595.13auction1.4318.80.35
1987 S 1/2 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$961auction1.1630.30.58
1987 S 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$158.06auction1.914.990.09
1987 Y 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$200.5auction2.426.340.12
1988 8 g gold WWF golden haired monkey NGC PF 69 UC$695auction1.6321.90.42
1989 1 oz silver New York expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$694.8auction21.921.90.42
1989 22 g silver children's fund panda NGC PF 69 UC$219.38auction9.806.930.13
1989 P 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$275Buy-It-Now8.698.690.16
1990 1 oz silver dragon & phoenix 5 coin set NGC MS 69$1350auction42.642.60.81
1990 P 1 oz silver proof panda NCS NGC PF 69 UC$310.89auction9.839.830.18
1990 P 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$354.99auction11.211.20.21
1990 P 1/10 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$395auction2.3812.40.23
1991 1 oz silver panda large date NGC MS 69$175.5auction5.555.550.10
1991 1/20 oz gold panda small date PCGS MS 69$210.5auction2.546.650.12
1991 1/4 oz gold panda large date NGC MS 69$618.88auction1.4919.50.37
1991 2 oz silver piedfort 10th anniversary proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$1288auction20.340.70.77
1992 1 oz silver panda large date NGC MS 69$307auction9.709.700.18
1992 1/20 oz gold panda small date PCGS MS 69$178.06auction2.155.630.10
1992 1/4 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$558.88auction1.3517.60.33
1992 15 g silver invention & discovery coins PCGS PR 69 DCAM$479.95Buy-It-Now31.415.10.29
1992 15 g silver lunar monkey NGC PF 69 UC$550auction36.017.30.33
1994 1 oz gold proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$13200offer7.98417.7.98
1994 1 oz silver lunar dog NGC PF 69 UC$571.88auction18.018.00.34
1994 1 oz silver unicorn NGC MS 70$610auction19.219.20.36
1994 1/4 oz gold 1/8 oz silver bimetallic proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$3495Buy-It-Now442.110.2.11
1994 2/3 oz silver modern paintings magpies NGC PF 69 UC$2457.24offer116.77.71.48
1994 gold proof unicorn 3 coin set NCS NGC PF 69 UC$1913auction2.8960.41.15
1994 proof unicorn 2 coin set NGC PF 69 UC$9100auction7.31287.5.50
1996 1 oz gold 15th anniversary proof panda NGC MS 69$4300auction2.59135.2.59
1996 1 oz silver panda small date NGC MS 69$142.5auction4.504.500.08
1996 1 oz silver proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$433auction13.613.60.26
1996 1/20 oz gold panda large date NGC MS 69$182.5auction2.205.770.11
1997 1 oz silver ancient paintings peacock NGC MS 69$325auction10.210.20.19
1997 1 oz silver piedfort auspicious matters NGC MS 69$120auction3.793.790.07
1997 1/10 oz gold panda small date PCGS MS 69$325Buy-It-Now1.9610.20.19
1997 1/2 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$81auction5.122.560.04
1997 1/20 oz gold panda small date PCGS MS 69$183.38auction2.215.790.11
1997 2/3 oz silver modern paintings penguin NGC PF 69 UC$635.56auction30.120.00.38
1998 1 oz silver aviation expo panda NGC MS 69$219.95auction6.956.950.13
1998 1 oz silver colored proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$255auction8.068.060.15
1998 1/2 oz silver colored proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$132.5auction8.384.190.08
1998 1/20 oz gold panda small date PCGS MS 69$1126auction13.635.60.68
1999 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$295auction9.329.320.17
1999 1 oz silver colored lunar rabbit NGC PF 69 UC$370auction11.711.70.22
1999 1 oz silver panda large date plain 1 NGC MS 69$372auction11.711.70.22
1999 1 oz silver panda small date NGC MS 69$207.5auction6.566.560.12
1999 1/20 oz gold panda large date plain 1 PCGS MS 69$310.55auction3.759.820.18
1999 2/3 oz silver scallop flower lunar rabbit NGC PF 69 UC$438auction20.713.80.26
2000 1 oz silver panda frosted NGC MS 69$413auction13.013.00.24
2000 1/20 oz gold panda frosted PCGS MS 69$431auction5.2113.60.26
2001 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$306auction3.709.670.18
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$142.5auction4.504.500.08
2003 1 oz silver panda frosted NGC MS 70$510auction16.116.10.30
2003 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$405auction12.812.80.24
2005 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$203.5auction6.436.430.12
2005 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$186.47auction5.895.890.11
2006 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$350auction11.011.00.21
2007 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$293.99auction9.299.290.17
2009 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70$384.99auction12.112.10.23
2009 1 oz silver scallop flower lunar ox NGC PF 69 UC$555auction17.517.50.33
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70$365.5auction11.511.50.22
2011 1 oz silver Beijing-Shanghai rail panda NGC MS 70$550Buy-It-Now17.317.30.33
Total 77 coins:$82427.75260649.8
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Oct 19, 09:13:03 am »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/

The Fishball Panda Index

Created by Fishball at the Silver Stackers forum, the Fishball Panda Index (FPI) is to be an index of entry level Pandas (bullion) which is to be updated on a monthly basis using data from Peter Anthony's pricepedia.

MonthSilver FPIGold 1/20 oz FPIGold 1/10 oz FPIGold 1/4 oz FPI
Aug 20111000100010001000
Sep 20111019.221012.691027.901107.29
Oct 20111025.631122.241142.991183.32
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Oct 19, 09:13:28 am »


Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF

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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Oct 19, 09:13:35 am »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!

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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Oct 19, 09:13:47 am »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Oct 19, 09:13:51 am »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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