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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #97 - Bullion, bottom, lunars, newcomers  (Read 7918 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Oct 15, 03:53:21 pm »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

I agree with tamo42 that the market seems to be stabilizing, and that usually means we've reached the bottom. Normally we would expect to be well into the busy season right now, but I predicted it would be muted, and indeed it is. Some of the best coins are still setting records though, and a few less expensive coins are also. Those are good signs that the market is still kicking.

I've been buying with less aggression than usual lately, but my purchasing intensity is increasing. Good coins are getting harder to find, and that's causing buyers holding out for bargains to find less and less available as time goes by. We'll see how things pick up later.

My overall feeling is that hard times might hold back the cheaper, higher mintage coins because it may be difficult to rally enough buyers with spare cash to keep the supply off the market. However, looming inflation is likely to pull out massive amounts of cash from wealthier buyers who will need expensive coins to absorb their wealth. The effect of this will be that the best coins might increase 10% in a month, while everything else increases 2%, as a random example. It will really pay off to get the best coins.

Watch out for bullion action that might overshadow coins, and draw away buyer attention. Last time silver gained 20% in a month, it was hard to persuade newcomers to look at the numismatic coins, even though during the same time period some coins may have gained 200%. What really gets bullion people's attention is when bullion prices drop or go flat, but coin prices continue rising. That's what gains the market new converts, both as hobbyist collectors, and investors.

Bullion "stacking" can be very satisfying in a quantity-over-quality sort of way, with the impressive size and weight of a pile of glittering gold or silver bars clanking together with a ringing "ping". But, thats commodity stuff, prone to manipulation, regulation, thievery, etc. Coins are harder to categorize and define, but also more profitable than commodity bullion. Some people try to mix the two with "premium" bullion that costs more than generic bullion - that is a mistake. If you choose to diversify into both coins and bullion, don't try to blend them, or you'll lose profits when gains bullion value outstrip numismatic gains, or vice versa.

As a general rule, you will be best off buying the cheapest bullion available, and/or the most expensive coins available. Both are more liquid and more profitable than anything in-between.

If you're new to investing in modern Chinese coins, you have a lot to learn, so where should you start? The pandas are the obvious place where most people begin their education in Chinese coins. They're popular, and great investments. But, going forward, I think they'll be taking a back seat to lunars for a while. Overall, pandas are THE Chinese coin series, but temporarily (most of 2012?), I think bigger profits are going to be made in lunars.

If pandas are China's equivalent of the American Eagle coinage, then lunars are China's Buffaloes. Except, the lunars are far more important to China's portfolio of coins than America's Buffaloes are. Lunars were made BEFORE the pandas, beginning in 1981. The lunars were intended to be collector coins from the beginning, and they all had very small mintages. The pandas were originally intended to be inexpensive bullion, and only later had face values, boxes, and COA's added.

For the next year or so, if you're just getting started in investing in modern Chinese coins, I recommend that you make the pandas your second priority, and the lunars your first. They're simpler to learn than the pandas, since there are few, if any, recognized varieties of lunars. They were minted in much smaller quantities, and far fewer survived in high grades, especially in the early silver coins, which is the recipe for a good investment.

Plus, there's much more information about lunars available now than ever before - they're even included in Peter Anthony's PricePedia now, which originally was dedicated solely to pandas. The lunar market is ready to pop because all the important factors are in place. We have quality references available about them, we have a 2012 year of the dragon coming up, and plenty of wealthy newcomers to the market that collectively will push prices to the stratospheric levels that some of the pandas have reached.

But, since the big move hasn't been made yet, you still have your opportunity to get in on the party!

My choices

Focus your purchases on rarity together with popularity during this weak market. Sprinkle in some underpriced coins to ensure you don't miss out on big percentage gains in the cheaper coins. Stick with the best coins available, in the most popular types (prefer 1 oz over 5 oz, for example). Be sure to continually upgrade your coins so you can keep up with the market as better coins accelerate ahead of lesser coins.

* Coins in a 70 grade.
* Lunars, starting with dragons, and expanding to the whole sets. 2012 year of the dragon will be lunar-mania.
* 1983 15 g silver pig (key)
* 1981 15 g silver rooster
* 1982 15 g silver dog
* 1984 15 g silver rat
* Dragon and phoenix (marriage theme symbolism).
* Peacocks (marriage theme symbolism).
* Pandas, especially silver, the rarer the better.
* Normal sized expo pandas, especially gold accented silver ones, and silver Munich expo medals.
* 1979 year of the child, and possibly other child-themed coins like the 1989 children's fund panda .
* Other 1979 dated early coins and medals.
* Almost all medals are underpriced - buy the rarest, most popular ones first.
* 1990 goldfish medals.
* Gods medals (longevity, war & wealth, mazu, buddhas, etc).
* Underpriced invention & discovery, especially silver.

Remember, there are several kinds of rarity, in order of importance:

* Mintage rarity
* Grade rarity
* Relative rarity within a series ("key" coins)
* Variety rarity/popularity (you have to have popularity too)
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 15, 06:33:55 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Oct 15, 03:53:44 pm »

The tide seems to be shifting. Buy-It-Nows are picking up, and auctions are closing off the lows of their ranges.

I think the precious metals market has stabilized enough so that people aren't so afraid that they will wake up tomorrow with the silver and gold bars being worthless. Personally, I'm long on some GLD calls.

With the tide shifting, now is the time for bottom-picking. I know in a recent list badon talked about how if you buy the best and rarest, you never need to worry about any of this stuff with timing the market. That's true, but I still like it Smiley.

So for me, I want to pick up those coins that have been battered the most for no good reason. This includes the mid-90s silver pandas and the mid-late 2000s MS 70 pandas.
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 15, 04:23:28 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Oct 15, 03:53:52 pm »

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Oct 15, 04:17:52 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Oct 15, 03:54:04 pm »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Oct 15, 03:57:34 pm »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #96 article

Coin Sold  Sale Price  Sale Type  Melt RatioAg oz priceAu oz price
1980 12 g copper olympic figure skating NGC PF 69 CA$373auctionthou11.50.22
1980 12 g copper olympic soccer NGC PF 69 CA$336auctionthou10.40.20
1980 12 g copper olympic wrestling NGC PF 69 CA$311auctionthou9.670.18
1980 6 g copper olympic archery NGC PF 69 UC$550auctionthou17.10.32
1984 15 g silver lunar rat NGC PF 69 UC$1790offer115.55.61.06
1987 S 1/20 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$131.19auction1.564.070.07
1989 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$155Buy-It-Now4.814.810.09
1990 15 g silver unearthed discoveries 4 coin set NGC PF 69 UC$1825auction29.456.71.08
1990 silver dragon & phoenix 2 coin set NGC PF 69 UC$2025auction20.962.91.20
1991 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Hong Xuquan NCS NGC PF 69 UC$249.99Buy-It-Now10.97.770.14
1992 1 oz silver panda large date NGC MS 69$284Buy-It-Now8.838.830.16
1992 1/4 oz gold panda small date PCGS MS 69$750Buy-It-Now2.2323.30.44
1992 P 1/2 oz gold proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM$5706auction6.79177.3.39
1993 1 oz gold panda large date PCGS MS 69$3098Buy-It-Now1.8496.31.84
1993 1/4 oz gold panda small date PCGS MS 69$750Buy-It-Now1.7823.30.44
1994 1 oz silver panda large date PCGS MS 69$225Buy-It-Now6.996.990.13
1996 1 oz silver panda large date NGC MS 69$175Buy-It-Now5.445.440.10
1996 1 oz silver panda small date NGC MS 69$150Buy-It-Now4.664.660.08
1997 1 oz silver panda small date NGC MS 69$150Buy-It-Now4.664.660.08
1998 1 oz silver aviation expo panda NGC MS 69$226Buy-It-Now7.027.020.13
1998 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$344.99auction10.710.70.20
2001 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$162.5auction5.055.050.09
2003 1 oz silver panda mirror PCGS MS 70$530Buy-It-Now16.416.40.31
2004 1 oz silver fan lunar monkey NGC MS 69$249auction7.747.740.14
2005 1 oz silver commercial bank panda NGC MS 70$660auction20.520.50.39
2006 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$300.99auction9.359.350.17
2006 1 oz silver Minsheng bank panda NGC MS 69$128.4auction3.993.990.07
2006 1 oz silver Minsheng bank panda NGC MS 70$650auction20.220.20.38
2006 1 oz silver scallop flower lunar dog NGC PF 69 UC$225auction6.996.990.13
2007 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$335auction10.410.40.19
2007 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$369.99auction11.511.50.22
2008 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$309auction9.609.600.18
2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary panda NGC MS 70$255auction7.927.920.15
2010 1 oz silver capital market panda NGC MS 70$309.99auction9.639.630.18
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70$130.5auction4.054.050.07
Total 35 coins:$24220.54753.14.4
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Oct 15, 03:57:54 pm »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/

The Fishball Panda Index

Created by Fishball at the Silver Stackers forum, the Fishball Panda Index (FPI) is to be an index of entry level Pandas (bullion) which is to be updated on a monthly basis using data from Peter Anthony's pricepedia.

MonthSilver FPIGold 1/20 oz FPIGold 1/10 oz FPIGold 1/4 oz FPI
Aug 20111000100010001000
Sep 20111019.221012.691027.901107.29
Oct 20111025.631122.241142.991183.32
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Oct 15, 03:58:07 pm »

Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Oct 15, 03:58:11 pm »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Oct 15, 03:58:31 pm »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.

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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Oct 15, 03:58:36 pm »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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