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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #89 - Ebay searches, inflation, medals  (Read 6006 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Sep 18, 10:37:36 am »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

In list #86 I notified the world about a huge Ebay buying opportunity caused by a change in how Ebay handles its Chinese coin categories. The "China" category used to just lump all Chinese coins together, but that had to change when the huge rise in popularity of Chinese coins made it a massive mess of thousands upon thousands of coins. Now, the "China" category is broken up into old and modern sections, with a "Mixed lots" category where everything else goes.

The money-making trick I reported in list #86 was that after Ebay changed the categories, most buyers and sellers were unaware of the change. That meant sellers were listing in the wrong category, and competing buyers would not be able find the coins they wanted, leading to low final auction prices for aggressive buyers!

I said that this confused condition was a rare buying opportunity, and I warned that it would not last. At the time of publication of list #86, there were only a few hundred modern coins in the modern category, with everything else disappearing in the "Mixed lots" bargain bin. Regardless of what category a coin went into, chances were good that many buyers who wanted it were not finding it, so all coins were possibly going to sell dirt cheap due to being overlooked.

That was a little more than a week ago. Now, the majority of coins are in the modern "PRC (1949-Now)" category, where they should be. The bonanza is almost, but not quite over yet though. At the time of this writing, there are about 5500 listings in the modern category, and about 3500 in the mixed lots category. Obviously, word has spread, and sellers are starting to list their coins correctly.

But, there is still enough confusion that buyers and sellers aren't connecting every time for maximum possible prices. In fact, I didn't remember to update the searches in the Helpful searches section until today. Around 8000 people read these articles each month. Now that the searches are updated, you can bet they'll start finding the coins they want now, and bargains will start getting harder to find.

On top of that, we're nearing America's next monetary policy decision that will be reached after a 2 day meeting beginning Tuesday, September 20th. It is very likely that they will decide to allow inflation to resume, and if they do, prices of all hard assets will rise as money flees the dollar for a safe haven. Jobs data isn't looking good lately, and with the holiday season beginning in late October, the pressure to choose between inflation and job losses is increasing.

The holiday season is important because it is the time period that is most scrutinized for clues about the health of America's economy. That makes it a target for manipulation by politicians who want to look good for the 2012 elections! When election season comes, there will be a crucial question to answer: "Which is worse, bad money, or no money?".

It's a choice between jobs that pay people with money created through inflation, or no jobs at all. The choice is obvious: Inflation is better than joblessness. Joblessness is equivalent to withering of the economy, while inflation, as crappy as it is, is not nearly as bad. Therefore, I think policy makers will decide on Tuesday, September 20th, to allow inflation to resume. The situation is so dire in the USA that I'm not sure how much inflation they'll allow - I suspect it will be moderate, in order to balance both inflation and jobs, so that neither issue will stand out as much during the 2012 elections.

But, if things are dire enough, they won't be ABLE to balance inflation and jobs, and so they'll have to choose one or the other. If that choice must be made, and they choose inflation, there's a risk of consequences just as bad as joblessness, or even worse - like complete, sudden collapse of America's banking system.

That's why policy makers are meeting for 2 days, instead of following the decades-long tradition of meeting for only 1 day. They have some tough decisions to make, and they're going to explore alternatives before they make those decisions.

I'm pretty good at predicting stuff, but in this case, I can't see what's going to happen. The only things that are certain at this point is that there's going to be inflation, but I can't tell how much it's going to be. How are they going to manipulate the holiday season economic picture, without wrecking things in the process? It will be interesting to see, and we'll know very soon.

I have been preparing by buying more coins. I was holding back up until now, because there were way more bargains than I could afford to buy, so I had to be picky. With a price rise imminent, I've become a little less picky, and buying a bit more impulsively. I'm still MUCH more conservative than I normally am though. When the market is extremely hot, people do panic buying. In this market, any kind of buying is rewarded, including panic buying that would normally be considered foolish. Still, the supply of investment-grade coins has been very good, with a confluence of several factors leading to the generous availability of bargains too.

Normally I'm harping on and on about how it's OK to "overpay". You may have noticed I haven't been doing that lately. However, I have caught myself "overpaying" on a few coins again, which is a clue that my gut is speaking, and it says "buy more aggressively". We're not in crazy town yet, but definitely the situation warrants continually more aggressive buying as we ride deeper into the busy season.

My overall view of the 2011-2012 busy season is that it will be more muted than the 2010-2011 busy season, which was incredibly mighty. That is still good news, but 300% gains in a month will probably not be normal for most investment grade coins, like it was previously. Instead, I'm looking forward to 25% to 100% gains, with many of the better coins being around 50% to 75%. We'll see what the actual numbers turn out to be, since inflation is a wildcard that can either increase or decrease those figures, depending on whether you want to adjust for inflation in your calculation.

I am noticing a continued trend of medals flowing out of China, into the West. Most Chinese buyers still do not respect the medals, because they have no face value. With a renewed worldwide inflation regime initiated by America next week, Chinese people will start questioning how much difference that little yuan symbol makes (none!).

Either way, the West is doing a very good job of support medals prices. The most valuable medals are the Munich expo pandas, some of which are priced as high or higher than equivalent pandas with face values. Munich panda prices are supported by German buyers who eagerly buy them up, keeping prices high. They fell back a bit when the market did its sector-rotating thing, and rotated out of Munich pandas, and also medals in general.

I think medals have become a good buy, ahead of the market rotating back into the medals sector. I don't think medals are going to get any cheaper than they are now, or have been recently. Tamo42 has noted a drop in supply, and an increase in prices for some of the most popular medals. That pattern matches the overall market, but seems to be somewhat exaggerated for medals, due to their much lower mintages, compared to equally-priced coins. In other words, for example, if prices rose for regular coins by 10%, they went up 50% for medals.

That makes medals more attractive than regular coins, from an investment point of view. When they gain, they gain more. But, that naturally comes with more risk, because when they drop, they're a lot harder to sell. I think that will change for the better as time goes on - that's why I have not been concerned about my medals investments, even when prices fluctuated with high volatility. I see medals as one of the best value-investments, so my medals rank second after the top elite-level, most-popular coins.

Even of those elite level popular coins, some of them are medals! Good examples are the Basel, Zurich, and Munich expo pandas. All very, very rare, and popular at the same time. So, you see, medals need to be considered carefully based on where they're going in the future, despite the poor opinion that most of China has for them now.

I have had to update my choices on the 1984 silver goldfish. There's a credible rumor out there that they are a private issue. If that's true, it would mean that the China mint copied them for their 1990 18 g silver goldfish design. Such events are unusual at the mint, but not unheard of. For example, the China mint copied a 1994 Taiwan panda design for the 1995 proof panda. While China's 1995 panda is very popular and valuable, Taiwan's is not. Likewise, the 1984 silver goldfish coins may be reduced in value if it really is a non-China mint coin that was later copied.

However, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, so the coins that get copied end up gaining some status just because they were good enough for the China mint to copy them. The Taiwan 1995 pandas are expensive and hard to buy, because collectors want them to go with their Chinese 1995 pandas. In other words, the high status of the Chinese coins ends up rubbing off on the other coins.

I'm not saying that's what will happen with the 1984 goldfish, because some of the information says that may not happen. But, nothing is sure yet - I have not been able to verify the rumors, and I remain skeptical until the facts come in. But, you can take that as one example of the risks of investing in medals.

Although the profits on medals have been much higher for me, far above any of the other coins I have invested in, percentagewise, I've also lost more on them than on other coins, due to their unique attributes that cause them to behave differently, and sometimes unpredictably in the markets. It's a lot of fun though, and I feel like I have been well-rewarded. I see a lot of upside ahead on medals, especially the more popular ones like the expo pandas, god of war & wealth, god of longevity, 1990 goldfish, etc.

Good luck, times are getting interesting. It has been a while since I've written an article this long!
« Last Edit: 2011 Sep 18, 04:05:42 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Sep 18, 10:39:07 am »

The past few days have been pretty slow in the Chinese coin market. We've seen a number of deals posted in which the seller drastically underbid the competition, making for screaming deals to savvy buyers.

Auctions are continuing to slowly become more active.

In short, upgrading season continues!
« Last Edit: 2011 Sep 18, 11:00:12 am by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Sep 18, 10:39:15 am »

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Our choices
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Investment grade 1/2 oz silver pandas
* Investment grade large date and small date pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Sep 18, 10:56:02 am by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Sep 18, 10:39:25 am »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Sep 18, 10:41:14 am »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #88 article

Coin Sold  Sale Price  Sale Type  Melt RatioAg oz priceAu oz price
1980 6 g copper olympic archery NGC PF 69 UC$495.17auctionthousands12.10.27
1984 1/2 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$1000auction1.1024.50.55
1984 1/2 oz silver olympic volleyball NGC SP 69 MA$2760auction135.67.81.52
1986 1/2 oz silver World Cup one player NGC SP 69 MA$2800auction137.68.81.54
1987 P 1 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$2327auction1.2857.21.28
1987 P 1/4 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$575auction1.2614.10.31
1989 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$195Buy-It-Now2.154.790.10
1989 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Kublai Khan small army NCS NGC PF 69 UC$480Buy-It-Now16.611.80.26
1989 8 g gold lunar snake NGC PF 69 UC$1250auction2.6830.70.68
1989 P 1 oz silver proof panda NCS NGC PF 69 UC$290auction7.137.130.16
1990 1 oz silver panda large date NGC MS 69$162.32auction3.993.990.08
1990 27 g silver olympic cycling PCGS PR 69 DCAM$150Buy-It-Now4.243.680.08
1990 P 1 oz silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM$431.01auction10.610.60.23
1992 P 1 oz silver proof panda frosted leaf NGC PF 69 UC$487auction11.911.90.26
1995 1 oz gold panda small date PCGS MS 69$5598Buy-It-Now3.08137.3.08
1996 1 oz silver proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$505Buy-It-Now12.412.40.27
1996 1 oz silver unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$565.57auction13.913.90.31
1996 1/2 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$76auction3.731.860.04
1997 1 oz silver panda small date NGC MS 69$145Buy-It-Now3.563.560.08
1997 5 g silver WWF panda NGC PF 69 UC$150offer22.93.680.08
1998 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$495Buy-It-Now12.112.10.27
1998 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$495Buy-It-Now12.112.10.27
1998 1/2 oz silver Hong Kong expo panda PCGS MS 69$125Buy-It-Now6.143.070.06
1999 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$323auction7.947.940.17
1999 1/10 oz gold panda small date PCGS MS 69$960auction5.2923.60.52
2000 1 oz silver panda mirror NGC MS 69$1650auction40.540.50.91
2000 1/2 oz gold scallop flower lunar dragon NGC PF 69 UC$6766auction7.46166.3.73
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NCS NGC MS 69$155auction3.813.810.08
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$157.5auction3.873.870.08
2004 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$194.41auction4.784.780.10
2004 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$179.5auction4.414.410.09
2005 1 oz silver commercial bank panda NGC MS 69$274.89auction6.766.760.15
2006 1 oz silver horticultural expo panda NGC MS 69$199Buy-It-Now4.894.890.10
2006 1/4 oz gold panda NGC MS 70$780auction1.7219.10.43
2007 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$377offer9.279.270.20
2007 1/25 oz gold 25th anniversary proof panda 25 coin set NGC PF 70 UC$3000auction41.373.71.65
2010 1 oz silver lunar tiger NGC PF 69 UC$369Buy-It-Now9.079.070.20
Total 37 coins:$36942.3790820.3
« Last Edit: 2011 Sep 18, 10:56:36 am by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Sep 18, 10:42:28 am »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Sep 18, 10:42:39 am »

Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Sep 18, 10:42:46 am »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Sep 18, 10:42:59 am »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Sep 18, 10:43:06 am »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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