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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #88 - The upgrading season  (Read 6556 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Sep 14, 08:41:57 am »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

The gold and silver pundits are making dramatic predictions of high target prices for the last few months of 2011. I'm not quite as enthusiastic as they are - I've already stated that I think we'll have a more muted busy season - but, since we're already in the "muted busy season", that opens the door for the next possibility of a more powerful surge upwards than would have been possible without being preceded by a muted busy season.

In other words, if you plug the fire hose, the pressure builds up until the water comes gushing out with more force than normal.

Of course, all of that action in the precious metals market will be good for coins. Our coins are more stable on the downside, which means usually they don't drop much, or at all, when the metals drop. Sometimes they just keep going up. And, when the metals go up, the coins go up faster. This is more true for rarer coins, and less true for more common coins.

That means that if things go crazy soon, the coin that will benefit the most are your more expensive ones. The really common coins might get completely left behind, and only do as well as bullion.

1 oz silver 2010 and 2011 pandas are the best example of coins that will probably be reduced to bullion value when prices rise dramatically. When bullion values catch up to numismatic values, you will realize that you would have been better off buying just one or two very rare coins, instead of hundreds of common ones.

I guess I would like to call this time between the slowdown and the busy season "the upgrading season". Almost everyone who is selling, is selling so they can upgrade. According to tamo42's market observations in this article, the supply has begun to diminish. That means that what upgrading can be done, has been done, and the next step is a move upwards for all coins, both rare and semi-rare.

The conditions are right for the precious metal pundit fantasies of a boom in gold and silver to come true. Even though coins don't track gold and silver very much, they do follow similar patterns. When rich people have been selling so they can upgrade - it's an opportunity for everyone else beneath them to upgrade also.

Did you buy up the coins you wanted while they were available? There's still many good coins in the list, but it appears the upward price pressure is increasing, now that supply is diminishing. It will be exciting to watch. Good luck!
« Last Edit: 2011 Sep 14, 01:32:12 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Sep 14, 08:42:52 am »

It looks like supply is starting to dry up in the rarer coins. As an example, over the summer we had a lot of 1989 1 oz silver New York expo pandas (the kung fu panda) up for sale. It appears that the last one just sold. Of course, since we're talking rare Chinese coins, that means 7 coins. You have to love it when 7 is a flood.

Similarly, as mentioned last time, the flood of gods of war & wealth seems to be over.

There are still plenty of the somewhat more common pandas on the market, like the 1996 and 1997, so that wave hasn't crested yet.

It also appears that a few big sellers are getting tired of waiting for the market to come to them. As you browse through the lists, you'll see that several coins have changed format from a Buy-It-Now to an auction with a lower starting price.

Two last points. One, I hope to have a big announcement for you guys on either Saturday or next Wednesday. So just look out for that. Two, I didn't have a chance to post Tuesday night's coins in list #87, so they are here in list #88. If you always skip to the new coins at the end, you'll be missing lots of good stuff!
« Last Edit: 2011 Sep 14, 09:14:52 am by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Sep 14, 08:42:58 am »

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Our choices
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Investment grade 1/2 oz silver pandas
* Investment grade large date and small date pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Sep 14, 09:02:28 am by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Sep 14, 08:43:10 am »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Sep 14, 08:47:43 am »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #87 article

1979 1/2 oz silver Year of the Child NGC SP 69 MATTE - $9101 - Nothing to say except "Wow!"

1983 1/2 oz gold panda NGC MS 69 - $1625 - $300 above recent auctions.

1989 1 oz silver New York Expo panda NGC PF 69 UC - $599 - This seems to be the last of the flood.

1990 P 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC - $306.88  - I think it's crazy that these sell for less than MS versions.

1991 1 oz silver Munich expo panda NGC PF 69 UC - $935 - A very low price. The fact that the seller never put up a picture probably has something to do with it.

1999 1 oz silver panda large date serif 1 NGC MS 69 - $1199 - A new high.


Coin Sold  Sale Price  Sale Type  Melt RatioAg oz priceAu oz price
1979 1/2 oz silver Year of the Child NGC SP 69 MATTE$9101auction450.225.4.86
1980 10 g gold olympic committee NGC PF 69 CA$1975auction3.2848.81.05
1980 12 g copper olympic speed skating NGC PF 69 UC$465auctionThou11.50.24
1980 18 g copper piedfort olympic wrestling NGC PF 68 CA$1425auctionThou35.20.76
1980 6 g copper olympic archery NGC PF 69 UC$500auctionThou12.30.26
1980 8 g gold olympic skiing NGC PF 69 UC$1350auction2.8033.40.72
1982 1/10 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$494auction2.6412.20.26
1982 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$595Buy-It-Now3.1814.70.31
1983 1/2 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$1625auction1.7340.20.86
1984 1/20 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$182.88auction1.954.520.09
1984 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$2840offer80.970.21.51
1984 27 g silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM$3525auction100.87.21.88
1985 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$2105auction60.052.11.12
1986 24 g silver Empress of China NGC MS 69$102.5auction3.282.530.05
1987 P 1/2 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$1175.1auction1.2529.00.62
1987 P 1/4 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$565auction1.2013.90.30
1988 1/10 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$242.5auction1.296.000.12
1988 1/20 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$134.5auction1.433.320.07
1988 1/4 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$535auction1.1413.20.28
1989 1 oz gold panda small date NGC MS 69$2000auction1.0649.51.06
1989 1 oz silver New York Expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$599auction14.814.80.32
1989 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69$127.61auction3.153.150.06
1990 1 g gold dragon & phoenix NGC PF 69 UC$374auction6.229.250.2
1990 1 oz silver dragon & phoenix NGC MS 69$450offer11.111.10.24
1990 1 oz silver dragon & phoenix NGC PF 69 UC$750Buy-It-Now18.518.50.40
1990 1 oz silver panda small date NGC MS 69$399Buy-It-Now9.879.870.21
1990 2 g silver dragon & phoenix NGC PF 69 UC$258.25auction99.46.390.13
1990 2 g silver dragon & phoenix NGC PF 69 UC$249.49auction6.176.170.13
1990 2 oz silver piedfort dragon & phoenix NGC PF 69 UC$2088Buy-It-Now25.851.61.11
1990 8 g gold lunar horse NGC PF 69 UC$1360auction2.8233.60.72
1990 P 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$306.88auction7.597.590.16
1991 1 oz silver Munich expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$935auction23.123.10.5
1992 1 oz silver panda large date NGC MS 69$285auction7.057.050.15
1992 P 1 oz silver proof panda frosted leaf NGC PF 69 UC$512.33auction12.612.60.27
1993 1/2 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69$180offer8.914.450.09
1994 1 oz gold lunar dog NGC PF 69 UC$6200auction3.31153.3.31
1994 1/10 oz gold panda large date NGC MS 69$450auction2.4011.10.24
1994 P 1 oz silver proof panda PCGS PF 69 UC$865Buy-It-Now21.421.40.46
1995 1 oz silver panda small twig small date NCS NGC MS 69$1684auction41.641.60.90
1996 1 oz silver Munich expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$1400offer34.634.60.74
1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$755auction18.618.60.40
1997 1/2 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$65.01auction3.211.600.03
1998 27 g silver WWF clouded leopard NGC PF 69 UC$209.5auction5.975.180.11
1999 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$510auction12.612.60.27
1999 1 oz silver panda large date plain 1 NGC MS 69$454auction11.211.20.24
1999 1 oz silver panda large date serif 1 NGC MS 69$1199Buy-It-Now29.629.60.64
1999 1 oz silver panda small date NGC MS 69$222.61auction5.515.510.11
1999 1/10 oz gold panda large date plain 1 NGC MS 69$540auction2.8813.30.28
2000 1 oz silver panda frosted NCS NGC MS 69$438auction10.810.80.23
2000 1 oz silver panda frosted NGC MS 69$440auction10.810.80.23
2000 1 oz silver panda mirror NGC MS 69$1738auction43.043.00.92
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$168auction4.154.150.08
2004 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$183.38auction4.534.530.09
2005 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$191.38auction4.734.730.10
2005 1 oz silver commercial bank panda NGC MS 69$274.89auction6.806.800.14
2005 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$425offer10.510.50.22
2006 1 oz silver Minsheng bank panda NGC MS 69$124.47auction3.083.080.06
2006 1/4 oz gold panda NGC MS 70$780auction1.6619.30.41
2007 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$397offer9.829.820.21
2008 1 oz silver olympic 4 coin set NGC PF 70 UC$580.06auction3.5814.30.31
2008 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$450offer11.111.10.24
2009 1/10 oz gold panda NGC MS 70$289auction1.547.150.15
2010 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 70$235.5auction1.255.820.12
2010 5 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 70 UC$828auction4.0920.40.44
Total 64 coins:$61908.84153233.1
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Sep 14, 08:47:57 am »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Sep 14, 08:48:03 am »

Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Sep 14, 08:48:07 am »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Sep 14, 08:48:12 am »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Sep 14, 08:48:17 am »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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