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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #84 - Clumsy buying better than selling  (Read 8951 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Aug 31, 12:26:34 pm »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

The market is clearly heating up. There has been much discussion lately about manipulators trying to influence prices either up or down in various venues, including a big auction house in China, where supposedly the culture is tolerant and considers fraud to be socially acceptable.

This is part of the reason why many obvious fakes are insisted upon as being a "variety", despite evidence to the contrary. Watch out for naysayers - there are many people who are not able to buy all the coins they wish they could buy, and are dismayed that the market is coming back to life before they can get all the coins they want. I don't blame them!

Prices are not making huge gains yet, in most cases, so the window of opportunity remains opens. However, all indications are that the supply we currently have is not sustainable, and will dry up sometimes later this year, possibly beginning near the end of September or early October. I still expect market activity to remain frantic during the "busy" season,  both for buying and selling, into the early parts of 2012.

For those of you that were involved in the market during the last busy season, you already know what to expect. It will not be unusual to see 300% gains as typical for most rare coins during the busy months. We will see sector rotations into and out of hot coins, so be aware of that pattern. In an immature market, there is not much limit to the upside, so what you should be looking for is not "overpriced" coins (an opportunity to sell, which may be quite mistaken), but instead for coins that have not gained much attention yet.

I have never heard anyone wishing they had sold at some perfect time. Instead, I only hear people wishing they had bought. So, when you look at the market to decide how you think the sectors are rotating, I cannot emphasize enough that your attention should be fixed on undervalued or underappreciated coins, and not "overpriced" coins.

Of course, if you have extras, there's nothing wrong with selling a few to fund further purchases. But, this is not the stock market. It is not the commodity market either. It is not very liquid, and buying is much harder than selling. Be very thoughtful about the coins you choose to sell.

Whenever I hear regrets, it is always about selling a coin, and never about buying one. Even in extreme cases of overpaying, there is still very little regret on the part of the informed buyer, because he knows any mistake he makes in buying will be erased in a short time by market gains. But, mistakes in selling are not forgiven.

Let your wealth rise with the market, and it will always be accessible to you. If you get off the elevator, you have to climb the stairs to catch up, and you'll probably always be behind those who never get off.

Good luck!
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 31, 03:15:09 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Aug 31, 12:27:45 pm »

You have to love it when dealers are selling stock to free up cash. It makes tons of coins available!

In putting together list #84, I went through all the coins as I usually do, filling in statistics and sales information where applicable. I noticed something interesting this time though. In list #84, there are about 500 coins listed. A full third of these coins have no previous sales information! This isn't an oversight, I checked the figures going back to list #68 (when I started making these posts). There simply have not been sales of these coins in the past few months.

When you figure in the fact that many of the 500 listings that do have previous sales are different specimens of the same coin type - say... 3 different 1994 1 oz silver pandas - then the ratio of coin types that don't have previous sales is much higher than one-third!

In short, because we look at these listings every day it is easy to fall into the mental trap of thinking, "Oh, there's another one of those." But be careful! These are still incredibly rare coins!
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 31, 01:15:08 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Aug 31, 12:27:54 pm »

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Our choices
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Investment grade 1/2 oz silver pandas
* Investment grade large date and small date pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 31, 01:02:10 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Aug 31, 12:28:15 pm »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Aug 31, 12:28:55 pm »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #83 article

1988 1 oz silver ANA expo panda NGC PF 69 UC - $1350 - Sold almost instantaneously.

1993 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Chu Teh NGC PF 69 UC - $259.95 - A bidder lost out by trying to bid while there was a relatively low Buy-It-Now price. Someone else swooped in and grabbed the coin. If it is a coin you want, always remember there are others who want it too!

1996 1/2 oz gold large date panda NGC MS 69 - $2795 - Sold very quickly.

1999 1/4 oz gold large date serif 1 panda NGC MS 69 - $3618 - This was a very strong price compared to a recent MS 70 auction.

Coin Sold  Sale Price  Sale Type  Melt Ratio
1979 1/2 oz gold year of the child NGC PF 69 CA$3550auction3.8785.81.9
1982 1/10 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$502auction2.7412.10.2
1982 1/4 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$818auction1.7819.70.4
1983 1/4 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$610.77auction1.3314.70.3
1984 20 g silver pagoda Kaiyuan Temple NGC PF 69 UC$1225auction46.029.60.6
1984 20 g silver pagoda Songyue NGC PF 68 UC$1100Buy-It-Now41.326.60.6
1984 20 g silver pagoda Songyue Temple NGC PF 68 UC$721auction27.117.40.3
1984 20 g silver pagoda Yingxian NGC PF 67 UC$1000Buy-It-Now37.624.10.5
1984 20 g silver pagoda Yingxian Temple NGC PF 68 UC$721auction27.117.40.3
1984 20 g silver pagoda Zhenjue Temple NGC PF 65 UC$559auction21.013.50.3
1984 22 g silver Chinese historical figures military officer NGC PF 69 UC$249Buy-It-Now8.516.020.1
1985 1/3 oz gold Chinese historical figures Confucius NGC PF 69 UC$1241.78auction2.0330.00.6
1986 1/3 oz gold Chinese historical figures Liu Bang NGC PF 69 UC$1283auction2.1031.00.7
1986 24 g silver Empress of China NGC MS 69$66.5auction2.081.600.0
1987 1/4 oz gold goddess Mazu NGC PF 69 UC$771.67auction1.6818.60.4
1988 1 oz silver ANA expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$1350Buy-It-Now32.632.60.7
1988 1/4 oz gold Sakyamuni Buddha NGC PF 69 UC$898auction1.9621.70.4
1988 5 oz silver lunar dragon NGC PF 69 UC$2950Buy-It-Now14.271.31.6
1989 1 oz silver New York expo panda NCS NGC PF 69 UC$666auction16.116.10.3
1989 1 oz silver New York expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$625auction15.115.10.3
1989 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$165Buy-It-Now3.993.990.0
1989 1/4 oz gold 40th anniversary of the PRC NGC PF 69 UC$1110auction2.4226.80.6
1989 1/4 oz gold Guan Yu NGC PF 69 UC$1275auction2.7830.80.6
1989 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Huang Dao Po NGC PF 69 UC$588.88Buy-It-Now20.114.20.3
1989 3.3 oz silver god of war & wealth clear claw NGC PF 69 UC$2688.88Buy-It-Now19.765.01.4
1989 3.3 oz silver god of war & wealth super clear claw$1500Buy-It-Now10.936.20.8
1989 P 1 oz silver proof panda NCS NGC PF 69 UC$322.98auction7.817.810.1
1990 1/10 oz gold vault protector NGC PF 69 UC$898auction4.9021.70.4
1990 P 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$283auction6.846.840.1
1990 P 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$305auction7.377.370.1
1991 P 1 oz silver proof panda NCS NGC PF 69 U$450offer10.810.80.2
1992 1/4 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$545auction1.1813.10.2
1992 P 1 oz silver frosted leaf proof panda NCS NGC PF 69 U$515auction12.412.40.2
1993 1/4 oz gold ancient paintings peacock NGC PF 69 UC$982auction2.1423.70.5
1993 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Chou En Lai NGC PF 69 UC$259.95Buy-It-Now8.886.280.1
1993 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Chu Teh NGC PF 69 UC$259.95Buy-It-Now8.886.280.1
1993 22 g silver inventions & discoveries yin yang NGC PF 69 UC$408.88Buy-It-Now13.99.890.2
1994 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69$183.5auction4.434.430.1
1994 1 oz silver unicorn NGC MS 69$235.5auction5.695.690.1
1994 1/10 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$440auction2.4010.60.2
1994 1/10 oz gold proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$459auction2.5011.10.2
1994 P 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$798auction19.319.30.4
1995 1 oz silver small twig large date panda NGC MS 69$240offer5.805.800.1
1996 1/10 oz gold 1/28 oz silver bimetallic proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM$1350auction7.3132.60.7
1996 1/2 oz gold large date panda NGC MS 69$2795Buy-It-Now3.0567.61.5
1996 1/2 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$150offer7.253.620.0
1996 1/20 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69$160.55auction1.753.880.0
1996 1/4 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69$660auction1.4415.90.3
1997 1/10 oz gold auspicious matters NGC MS 69$256.59auction1.406.200.1
1997 1/10 oz gold large date panda NGC MS 69$285auction1.556.890.1
1997 1/10 oz gold proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$1575auction8.5938.00.8
1997 1/2 oz silver Hong Kong expo panda NGC MS 69$105auction5.072.530.0
1997 P 1 oz silver proof unicorn NCS NGC PF 69 UC$550auction13.313.30.3
1998 1/4 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69$1850auction4.0344.71.0
1999 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$316.99auction7.667.660.1
1999 1 oz silver large date panda plain 1 NGC MS 69$567auction13.713.70.3
1999 1/10 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69$950auction5.1822.90.5
1999 1/4 oz gold large date serif 1 panda NGC MS 69$3618auction7.8987.51.9
2000 1 oz silver colored lunar dragon NGC PF 69 UC$700offer16.916.90.3
2001 1/4 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$531auction1.1512.80.2
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$200auction4.834.830.1
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$212.5auction5.145.140.1
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$220Buy-It-Now5.325.320.1
2004 1 oz silver construction bank panda NGC MS 69$178.57auction4.314.310.0
2005 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$207.5auction5.015.010.1
2008 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$299auction7.237.230.1
2010 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 70$275auction1.506.650.1
Total 67 coins:$53833.94 130229
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Aug 31, 12:29:40 pm »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Aug 31, 12:29:59 pm »

Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF

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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Aug 31, 12:30:05 pm »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Aug 31, 12:30:22 pm »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Aug 31, 12:30:28 pm »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.

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