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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #83 - Consolidation  (Read 9690 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Aug 27, 01:32:47 pm »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

We are in a consolidation phase. Or, more accurately, we're almost done with the consolidation phase. Many, many excellent coins have been selling for incredibly cheap prices.

The American government has decided against QE3 (more inflation), during August, which has kept money from chasing coins, and thus also kept prices low. The next meeting will be next month, in September. Normally the meetings only last one day, but this one is scheduled for 2 days, due to its importance. It is the time when the holiday preparations begin.

That's why the discussion of QE3 is going to be so important during September. Too much inflation is bad, but not as bad as a unemployment and a declining economy. Increasing inflation leading up to the holiday season is the government's best tool for ensuring that all the economic indicators look good as we enter the 2012 election year. Voters will make their 2012 voting choices based on the economic numbers that are reported during the 2011 holiday season.

The 2 day meeting will be probably a lot of discussion about whether there's any possible way they can avoid too much inflation. I don't think they're going to have a choice - it's not a question of "if" there's going to be inflation, but more like "how much". They have to be careful not to overdo it, or make it too obvious, while at the same time they have to make sure that Christmas is not filled with news reports of unemployed homeless workers and their families freezing to death.

Since we are not sacrificial pawns in this government game, we don't fear freezing to death. September is when the fire will be lit under the rare modern Chinese coin market to keep us warm. If we get substantial inflation, or even just the announcement of QE3, however small it may be, we might have to put on our sun block lotion.

I am expecting a little more muted coin rally than the fundamentals are geared for. I think we'll get a much better performance after the normal busy season. I think I wrote somewhere when I thought that was going to happen, but I've forgotten it already. Still, good times are ahead.

Remember, if the government can't crash-land the economy with a gentle impact, we may see mayhem. I'm hoping things don't get that bad, and so far it isn't looking to be that bad. It's when we see gold and coin prices making huge, sudden moves upwards that we have to worry about that the most. When things are happening more slowly, they are less likely to mean that something bad is about to happen. Ideally, we'll get a sustained upward move in our investments with only small seasonal dips from time to time.

That's actually the nature of the coin market, which is why I'm so heavily invested into it. Volatility comes from uncertainty, and the coin market is very well shielded from those problems. The cost is liquidity, which is OK by me. You must not invest in the coin market with a contingency plan for selling. Whenever things go wrong, your reaction should not be to sell. If things go wrong, you should be either holding, or buying, depending on your financial strength (income).

Remember this: When volatility strikes, you're in the best market to weather it. If you second guess yourself in a moment of weakness, you will regret it. You made the right choices in investing in this market, and now you have to defend it. Don't let good coins out of your hands, unless you are doing it to buy more coins.

For more info, read my new commentary article Modern Chinese coin investments commentary #62 - Cashing out, consolidation, UP!
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 28, 12:11:16 am by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Aug 27, 09:49:09 pm »

While not a 6 figure sum, $55k on the sold coins is certainly a respectable amount of coins changing hands.

A new technical note. In the sold coins listings, you will see 2 additional columns. These are the silver and gold costs for coins. Essentially this translates the US Dollar sale price into an equivalent number of ounces of gold and silver. For example, the 1987 S 1 oz gold panda sold for $1977 or 47.6 ounces of silver or 1.08 ounces of gold.

This way you can track the coins in 4 different ways: US Dollars, melt ratios, silver ounces, or gold ounces. Pick your standard(s) and enjoy!
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 27, 10:12:09 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Aug 27, 09:49:17 pm »

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Our choices
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Investment grade 1/2 oz silver pandas
* Investment grade large date and small date pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 27, 10:06:26 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Aug 27, 09:49:30 pm »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Aug 27, 09:49:59 pm »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #82 article

1997 1/10 oz gold auspicious matters NGC MS 70- $275 - These are selling incredibly cheaply compared to the MS 69s.

1990 18 g silver goldfish 4 coin set NGC PF 66-69 UC - $2000 - Whoever bought this got a steal!

2004 1/2 oz palladium panda PCGS MS 69 - $3280 - The final price on this is triple the original Buy-It-Now listing. It pays to check the new listings often before sellers realize their prices are too low!

1996 22 g silver silk road sculptures NGC PF 70 UC - $458.88 - These silk road coins sold very quickly.

1996 22 g silver silk road caravan NGC PF 70 UC - $458.88 - These silk road coins sold very quickly.

Coin Sold  Sale Price  Sale Type  Melt RatioSilver Cost (oz)Gold Cost (oz)
1979 1/2 oz gold year of the child NGC PF 69 UC$3800Buy-It-Now4.1591.52.0
1985 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$2325auction64.556.01.2
1986 1 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$2144auction1.1751.61.1
1987 S 1 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$1976.51auction1.0847.61.0
1987 Y 1 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$1951.51auction1.0647.01.0
1990 18 g silver goldfish 4 coin set NGC PF 66-69 UC$2000Buy-It-Now20.848.11.0
1991 P gold proof panda 5 coin set NGC PF 68-69 UC$8275offer2.38199.4.5
1992 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69$299.99auction7.227.220.1
1992 P 1 oz silver mirror leaf proof panda NGC PF 70 UC$2000offer48.148.11.0
1993 P 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$549offer13.213.20.3
1994 1 oz gold lunar dog NGC PF 69 UC$5588auction3.05134.3.0
1995 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$575offer13.813.80.3
1995 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 70$2250offer54.254.21.2
1995 1 oz silver small twig small date NGC MS 69$511auction12.312.30.2
1996 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69$138.38auction3.333.330.0
1996 1 oz silver small date panda PCGS MS 69$229.99offer5.545.540.1
1996 1/2 oz gold large date panda NGC MS 69$2801auction3.0667.41.5
1996 1/2 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69$1981auction2.1647.71.0
1996 22 g silver silk road caravan NGC PF 70 UC$458.88Buy-It-Now15.611.00.2
1996 22 g silver silk road sculptures NGC PF 70 UC$458.88Buy-It-Now15.611.00.2
1997 1 oz silver lunar ox NGC PF 69 UC$499offer12.012.00.2
1997 1 oz silver lunar ox reduced size NGC PF 70 UC$2999Buy-It-Now72.272.21.6
1997 1/10 oz gold auspicious matters NGC MS 70$275auction1.506.620.1
1997 1/10 oz gold proof unicorn NGS PF 69 UC$1310auction7.1631.50.7
1997 2/3 oz silver scallop flower lunar ox NGC PF 70 UC$2400offer86.757.81.3
1998 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69$611.88auction14.714.70.3
1999 1 oz silver large date panda plain 1 NGC MS 69$477auction11.411.40.2
1999 1/2 oz gold large date plain 1 panda NGC MS 69$2003auction2.1948.21.0
2000 1 oz silver frosted panda NGC MS 69$485auction11.611.60.2
2000 1 oz silver frosted panda NGC MS 69$490.5auction11.811.80.2
2004 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$251.38auction6.056.050.1
2004 1/2 oz palladium panda PCGS MS 69$3280Buy-It-Now8.3479.01.7
2009 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$279.99Buy-It-Now6.746.740.1
Total 33 coins:$55674.89
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 28, 09:02:21 am by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Aug 27, 09:50:20 pm »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Aug 27, 09:50:33 pm »

Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Aug 27, 09:50:40 pm »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Aug 27, 09:50:53 pm »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Aug 27, 09:50:58 pm »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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