Live Business Chat
2015 Sep 11, 06:49:56 pm *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?

Login with username, password and session length
News: This is a friendly non-profit discussion group about making money. Click the "NOTIFY" button every chance you get to receive instant alerts about new information. We don't like spam. If your first posts are about something you want from us, it is probably spam, and you will be banned in forums worldwide. No soliciting! If you have problems with the forum, contact badon in the business chat.
 
   Home   Help Search Calendar Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2  All   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments commentary #61 - Super clear claw & ghost claw  (Read 3630 times)
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
badon
Administrator
Capitalist Pig
*****
Online Online

Posts: 10307


badon™


« on: 2011 Aug 21, 06:50:42 pm »

Modern Chinese coin investments commentary #61 - Super clear claw & ghost claw

The article is broken up into separate posts

You can find the current investment list article and the previous commentary #60 in badon's blog.

In Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #78 - Buy & hold, secrets, 1998 large dates I promised to reveal some secrets:

I updated "badon's choices". It still has the usual stuff that has been there for a few weeks now, like pandas. Yay, boring, dependable, cha-ching, profit. No complaints here! But, how about a little excitement to go with your routine riches? Here's some stuff in my choices list that I know a secret about, that I'll probably say eventually:

* 1987 3.3 oz silver god of longevity (Surprise coming!)
* 1989 3.3 oz silver CLEAR CLAW god of war & wealth (Surprise coming!)
* 1984 20 g silver goldfish (Secret related to pagodas that just sold for $25,000!)
* 1990 18 g silver goldfish (Secret related to pagodas that just sold for $25,000!)

It wouldn't be a secret if I told you, would it? You'll just have to wait.

Well, wait no longer! Here's the info you've been waiting for...


* IMG_2105 clear claw god of war and wealth.jpg (55 KB, 400x400 - viewed 1090 times.)

* IMG_2106 super clear claw god of war and wealth.jpg (54.77 KB, 400x400 - viewed 1055 times.)

* IMG_2332 normal god of longevity obverse.jpg (138.17 KB, 600x592 - viewed 876 times.)

* IMG_2335 normal god of longevity reverse.jpg (134.82 KB, 600x600 - viewed 898 times.)

* IMG_2325 ghost claw god of longevity obverse.jpg (145.39 KB, 600x600 - viewed 907 times.)

* IMG_2311 ghost claw god of longevity reverse photo 1.jpg (137.2 KB, 600x600 - viewed 910 times.)

* IMG_2312 ghost claw god of longevity reverse photo 2.jpg (129.21 KB, 600x600 - viewed 893 times.)

* IMG_2318 ghost claw god of longevity phoenix head.jpg (78.58 KB, 400x524 - viewed 870 times.)

* IMG_2319 ghost claw god of longevity dragon head.jpg (68.79 KB, 400x437 - viewed 861 times.)

* IMG_2316 ghost claw god of longevity phoenix tail.jpg (59.65 KB, 400x371 - viewed 870 times.)

* IMG_2317 ghost claw god of longevity dragon tail.jpg (56.06 KB, 400x407 - viewed 888 times.)

* IMG_2319 ghost claw god of longevity.jpg (72.18 KB, 400x400 - viewed 894 times.)

* IMG_1714 super clouded god of war & wealth closeup.jpg (73.14 KB, 400x400 - viewed 1011 times.)

* IMG_1276 clouded claw god of war & wealth closeup.jpg (60.54 KB, 400x400 - viewed 1014 times.)
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 21, 09:37:20 pm by badon » Logged

If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
FreeArc is amazing.
User contributions for Badon - Coin Compendium
badon
Administrator
Capitalist Pig
*****
Online Online

Posts: 10307


badon™


« Reply #1 on: 2011 Aug 21, 09:37:33 pm »

Secret #1 1989 god of war & wealth SUPER clear claw



That's right, another 1989 3.3 oz silver god of war & wealth variety! My statistics so far show the super clear claw to be equal in rarity to the clear claw. So, the already low estimated mintage for the clear claw is now split in half. That means these coins are much rarer than we previously thought. They were considered the most common variety in terms of mintage, but now they're the second most common variety. Heres' the rough approximate 69 grade population estimates:

250 clear claw
250 super clear claw
200 clouded claw
180 super clouded claw

Those numbers are adjusted upward to be conservative. They do not include losses from melting or other causes. They're also based on statistics that need to be updated and recalculated once the Coin Compendium is ready to process the numbers. Eventually, the market price will us with reasonable certainty which variety is the hardest to obtain, and thus probably the rarest. Despite the unknowns, I think these estimates are a reasonable indication of the actual relative rarities.

How many of you out there have ALL 4 varieties in your collection? It's going to be quite a challenge to get them all. New discoveries are just one of many reasons why it's a good idea to diversify your collection. Many people were ignoring the clear claw variety because they thought they were the most common, and thus not the best investment. Eventually, the prices got to be a bit too low for the clear claw, and people were able to get them cheap. Now that we have a new variety to search for, I expect prices on the clear claw to make some quick gains.

Here's some photos of all known varieties to help you in your quest:

1989 3.3 oz silver super clouded claw god of war & wealth closeup of claw


1989 3.3 oz silver clouded claw god of war & wealth closeup of claw


1989 3.3 oz silver clear claw god of war & wealth closeup of claw


1989 3.3 oz silver super clear claw god of war & wealth closeup of claw


There may be another variety, but I'm not sure, since all I've seen for it is a photo. Can you see anything unusual about this coin? It may be a new variety, if the lighting isn't playing tricks on us in the photo:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=2428.msg9626#msg9626

Hint: look in the area of the phoenix's chest.

I seem to remember someone pointing out this area on another photo, but I don't remember it getting my attention at all. Maybe it's nothing, maybe it's something? Anybody have more info?
Logged

If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
FreeArc is amazing.
User contributions for Badon - Coin Compendium
badon
Administrator
Capitalist Pig
*****
Online Online

Posts: 10307


badon™


« Reply #2 on: 2011 Aug 21, 09:37:51 pm »

Secret #2 1987 god of longevity ghost claw



This new variety fits the progression of claw varieties in the god of war & wealth series pretty well, except for the fact that it's earlier, and a completely different coin. But still, I like to look at all 5 varieties in order of less and less frosting. They go like this:

1. super clouded claw god of war & wealth
2. clouded claw god of war & wealth
3. clear claw god of war & wealth
4. super clear claw god of war & wealth
5. ghost claw god of longevity

Even though they're different coins, the progression of variations in frosting and mirroring that we see on these 5 coins is actually quite related. They're all caused by decreasing amounts of frosting combined with increasing amounts of polishing. The ghost claw is so heavily polished that parts of the dragon and phoenix are beginning to disappear, specifically the claw:

1987 3.3 oz silver ghost claw god of longevity closeup of claw


So many other parts of the bodies of these creatures have been polished away that they're starting to look like skeletons! There are also differences on the front side, in both frosting and mirroring, can you find them? Here's a set of photos to help you:

1987 3.3 oz silver normal "clear claw" god of longevity obverse


1987 3.3 oz silver ghost claw god of longevity obverse


1987 3.3 oz silver normal "clear claw" god of longevity reverse


1987 3.3 oz silver ghost claw god of longevity reverse photo 2


1987 3.3 oz silver ghost claw god of longevity reverse photo 1


1987 3.3 oz silver ghost claw god of longevity phoenix head


1987 3.3 oz silver ghost claw god of longevity dragon head


1987 3.3 oz silver ghost claw god of longevity phoenix tail


1987 3.3 oz silver ghost claw god of longevity dragon tail


On the dragon & phoenix side, the frosted heads and tails are the most obvious difference, even more than the claw. I had a hard time coming up with a name for these. Here's everything I could think of calling them:

* Disappearing claw
* Ghost claw
* Ghost dragon
* Ghost phoenix
* Ghost dragon & phoenix
* Ghost reverse
* Ghost (just "ghost")
* Skeleton dragon
* Skeleton phoenix
* Skeleton dragon & phoenix
* Skeleton reverse
* Skeleton (just "skeleton")
* Weak reverse
* Weak dragon & phoenix
* Weak clouds
* Over-polished reverse
* Over-polished dragon & phoenix
* Over-polished clouds
* Frosted head
* Frosted tail
* Frosted head and tail

My favorites, in order, are:

* Ghost claw
* Ghost dragon
* Frosted tail

I like "ghost claw" because it follows the same theme as the god of war & wealth claw varieties. People are used to looking in that location for finding varieties. Plus, all the god of war & wealth and god of longevity varieties come from the same cause: frosting and polishing variations. So, we would have a consistent naming pattern that people can make sense of if we decided we liked the "ghost claw" name. That's good for the market, and thus valuations of your collection. Any other suggestions or ideas?
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 21, 09:51:17 pm by badon » Logged

If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
FreeArc is amazing.
User contributions for Badon - Coin Compendium
badon
Administrator
Capitalist Pig
*****
Online Online

Posts: 10307


badon™


« Reply #3 on: 2011 Aug 21, 09:38:04 pm »

So, which should you invest in?



I was asked why I preferred the god of war & wealth over the god of longevity, for investment purposes. My answer was basically that even the most common variety (as was thought at the time) was rarer than the god of longevity. I said that my opinion on that might change in the future, and I thought discovering a new variety would do it. But, since I also discovered a new variety of the god of war & wealth, it's still not clear which is rarer - the rarest god of war & wealth, or the rarest god of longevity?

I have not been able to find another specimen of the ghost claw god of longevity. Those coins have dispersed into the market already, so there's not enough of them circulating to get a feel for it. As far as I know, there are no hoards of them left out there, unlike the god of war & wealth, which is near the end of the plentiful supply after a 50 coin hoard, and a few smaller hoards, hit the market this year.

Still, I've been looking around for a few months now, and I have not seen another ghost claw coin yet, so I think it's a safe bet that it's the rarest of the 2 currently known varieties. Will there be other varieties discovered? Maybe. A lot of people have been looking at both the god of war & wealth and the god of longevity for varieties. If anybody out there has discovered something new and interesting, they just buying quietly without talking about it.
Logged

If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
FreeArc is amazing.
User contributions for Badon - Coin Compendium
badon
Administrator
Capitalist Pig
*****
Online Online

Posts: 10307


badon™


« Reply #4 on: 2011 Aug 21, 09:38:13 pm »

Secret #3 1984 pagodas vs. 1984 goldfish



This secret is pretty simple. We already know about the pagodas that I have mentioned many times in the past. I wrote quite a bit about them in article #59. They had a planned mintage of 1000, an actual mintage of 260, and an estimated surviving 69 grade population of around 100.

They also have a mysterious cousin, the 1984 goldfish. Those have little or no published information about them. I have mentioned them many times, but I haven't said too much specific about them because I was still researching them. Well, guess what? I had a very difficult time finding ANY genuine specimens. As rare as the pagodas are, the goldfish are something like twice as rare.

Another LBC/CCF member has done more extensive research on goldfish than me. If he wants to identify himself, he can, but I'll protect his privacy for now, and just relay a few basic facts he has discovered. I know of around 45 existing, genuine, NGC authenticated pagoda sets. These sets were discovered after around a year of searching by myself, several dealers, and a few collectors. All that simultaneous searching for both pagodas and goldfish has only turned up about 25 goldfish sets!

As a wild guess, I'd say there's probably around 50 surviving 69 grade goldfish sets.

Why are they so rare, and why are they undocumented? I speculated that they might be patterns, but I could not explain why there was 6 years between the mysterious 1984 goldfish and the officially distributed 1990 goldfish. They're a very striking design, and likely to be popular, so I had to come up with a good explanation why more of them were not made. NGC told me they definitely are not patterns, and further research by this other LBC/CCF researcher has revealed that they were probably given to distributors as gifts from the mint.

This explains why such an amazing design was not made available to the public. They were probably VIP gifts, and not technically patterns. However, I think the mint eventually realized how nice they were, and decided to strike them for public issue in 1990. They had the potential to be popular, but 1990 was the year after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, and no one wanted to buy Chinese products back then.

The 1990 goldfish had a planned mintage of 2000, and nobody knows how many were actually minted. Just like the 1984 goldfish, I have seen fewer of the 1990 type than I have of the 1984 pagodas. We have sufficient data to know how many of the pagodas are out there, but BOTH the 1984 and 1990 goldfish seem to be rarer than the pagodas!

As of this writing, 1984 goldfish are of unknown value. They're too rare, and I haven't seen any public sales, and I have very little knowledge about private sales. The 1990 goldfish typically sell for about $1350 ungraded, and between $2000 and $3000 in a 69 grade. A full set of 69 grade 1984 pagodas recently sold privately for $25,000. I have seen no other sales, ever, of a full set of 69 grade pagodas.

So, if we're going to compare the popular goldfish to the (formerly) unpopular pagodas, we can learn something. The goldfish are incredible buys right now. They're ALL very, very rare, and underpriced. The 1990 goldfish are available sometimes. As far as I know, the 1984 goldfish are not available. If you can find either of them, I think they're great buys.

Pagodas, goldfish, and goldfish. Simple!
Logged

If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
FreeArc is amazing.
User contributions for Badon - Coin Compendium
badon
Administrator
Capitalist Pig
*****
Online Online

Posts: 10307


badon™


« Reply #5 on: 2011 Aug 21, 09:38:23 pm »

Secret #4 you are the expert!

I'd like to end this article with a quotable quote:

Quote
While those of us who have had an interest in Chinese coins for years...bring hopefully valuable experience to the discussions, many interesting and worthwhile observations come from newer collectors who bring fresh eyes to the field. That is part of the magic that makes the Forum a must-read for me everyday.

Best wishes,
Peter Anthony
http://www.pandacollector.com

I was once a new collector of Chinese coins. Many of the greatest recent discoveries have come from new collectors. Most of the best secrets are sitting in somebody's collection, waiting to be posted on the LBC or CCF forums. There are a lot of things to learn, and you can be a part of it - Make history, discover something new, and then make money. Have fun!
Logged

If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
FreeArc is amazing.
User contributions for Badon - Coin Compendium
r3globe
Mogul
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 436


« Reply #6 on: 2011 Aug 22, 08:41:44 am »

Is this a 1984 Goldfish?





* GoldFishO.jpg (3306.04 KB, 3456x2592 - viewed 780 times.)

* GoldFishR.jpg (3311.31 KB, 3456x2592 - viewed 770 times.)
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 22, 08:47:48 am by badon » Logged
badon
Administrator
Capitalist Pig
*****
Online Online

Posts: 10307


badon™


« Reply #7 on: 2011 Aug 22, 08:48:52 am »

Yes, it is. It appears to be genuine too.
Logged

If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
FreeArc is amazing.
User contributions for Badon - Coin Compendium
r3globe
Mogul
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 436


« Reply #8 on: 2011 Aug 22, 08:51:25 am »

Cool! Thanks. I only found one and I took a chance on it. It has a thumbprint and some tarnish. I hope NCS can clean that up.
Logged
zombiecoins
Doer
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 31


« Reply #9 on: 2011 Aug 22, 09:25:04 am »

Thanks Badon!!! I must have read it 5 times last night. Badon thank you for taking your time. It's always fun being here.
james
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  All   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.18 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.074 seconds with 17 queries.