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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #81 - Diversification, 2012+ predictions  (Read 8836 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Aug 20, 01:00:26 pm »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

From the CCF:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3646.msg18592#msg18592

adamc4 phrases this as a question, but he already has a good guess of what the answer is:

Quote
my question is do you still think buying the best coins people can afford is still as good of a strategy? For example, take someone with less than $100,000 to put in Chinese coins. Really good coins in my opinion are the obvious picks like the 95/96 gold proof Pandas, 1 Oz. gold Peacock, 1 Oz. gold Unicorns, 2 Oz. gold Dragon & Phoenix, etc. Coins that are popular with low mintages and have fairly established price points (with buyers at those price points). But with $100,000 it seems like you would be putting too many of your eggs in one basket by going after these ~$20,000 coins. So instead of buying the best coins you can afford might it be wiser to go after more moderately priced coins that have bigger audiences? In my opinion I think the above mentioned popular coins will hand over the torch of rapid short-term price increases to sub $5000 coins. There just seems like there's a bigger audience going forward for low-mintage popular coins like select year gold proof Pandas.

I guess "best coins" is a relative term that varies from one person to the next. I think that the current star ~$20,000 coins will remain as popular as ever but will have a more difficult time of finding buyers at $30,000 than a $3000 coin finding buyers at $4500.

The total amount of wealth in the modern Chinese coin market continues to expand. That expansion is almost the same thing as maturation of the market. So, as the market matures, the values of all coins will continue to increase. The question is, which ones will increase the most?

2011 has been all about the coins under $5000. Those coins have done very well percentagewise, while the coins over $5000 have mostly not done nearly as well, with a few exceptions. I think that trend will continue for a while longer, but I'm looking ahead at the expensive coins making another big move upwards.

Most of the "expensive coins" are priced around $20,000. Those coins are in the same category as the "obvious picks" that adamc4 mentioned. I think sometime in 2012 or late 2012, and possibly as soon as the end of this year, we'll start seeing the "obvious picks" making another move upwards, after having sat quietly for most of 2011. As a guess, the next pricepoint plateau would probably be near the $30,000 level.

The trigger for this increase in the expensive coins will likely be a resuming of inflationary policies that drive wealthy people's money out of productive productive assets like businesses, into safer hard assets that are not productive per se, but are harder for criminal governments to seize using their previously unnoticed, and socially acceptable tricks like market manipulation and exorbitant debt accumulation - which leads to the consequence of unacceptably high inflation, originating from America, and spreading to the rest of the world.

This means that basic necessities like food will start to become a larger fraction of people's income. That leaves less money for buying the cheaper coins that most people can afford. So, I think the coins under $5000 may soon start to experience some decreased rates of gains compared to the expensive coins.

Coins between $5000 and $20,000 are where most of the percentage action could be. They're rare enough that they're a compelling investment for people with lots of money, but not so rare that too many people are priced out of the market. Let's call those the upper middle class coins, for people with around $100,000 or so in income-producing assets that are negatively affected by the government's control over them.

Those assets will be candidates for conversion into high profitability investments like coins, as opposed to low profitability investments like bullion gold and silver. Those upper middle-class people still aren't rich enough to have their lifestyles unaffected by the ups and downs of life, so they're going to be less attracted to cash-alternatives like gold and silver that people with huge amounts of money and people with small amounts of money will be interested in.

The people with huge amounts of money will not be able to increase their wealth in any market. They have so much money that they would unnaturally affect it themselves if they tried to put enough of their wealth into it to capitalize on the percentage gains that smaller players are able to get.

For example, there are not enough $1 million coins available for a person with $1 billion to invest. It just can't be done without artificially moving prices way up when they buy, and then way down when they sell - for a net loss! They're just too big.

For an example of the lowest class of people, the best of them have no debt, but not much in assets either. All the rest have far more debt than assets, for a negative total net wealth.

For those two classes, the upper class and the lowest class, the best they can hope for is to minimize their losses. That means they'll be buying things like gold and silver, in appropriate quantities according to their wealth. For their sake, I hope the lower classes buy food too, or they'll end up giving away their gold and silver just so they can eat for one more day.

The gold and silver will move up to at least match inflation, thereby preserving some of the "wealth" of wealthy people, and the meager "savings" of non-wealthy people. That means gold and silver will seem to go up in value when priced in American dollars (or any other fiat currency affected by America, which is all of them). They'll overshoot too, which will make the precious metals a good investment at first glance, temporarily, in the short term, for the lower classes. For the upper classes, it won't be too bad, but it won't be as good as having the money in a productive company during better times in the past or in the future.

For the upper classes, they're going to be looking for something better than gold and silver. They'll take some losses and accumulate losing assets at cheap prices, hoping for better days. And, they'll buy underpriced hard assets like art, diamonds, and coins. The high end art has already seen enormous increases that I don't think can be sustained much longer. Diamonds are less attractive now that there are synthetic alternatives that are, or may, drive prices down. Coins are the obvious next best choice.

I think we're about to enter the new heyday of the coin collector. Everything we've seen up to now has just been the opening moves - a prelude to what is about to come. Normally, this near future would be a time of great exuberance, and a time to be wary of bubbles. However, market participants have seen so many bubbles come and go already, they're already wary of it, and I think we're in uncharted territory.

I think it'll be an era of steady, sustained growth in the coin market, and other asset markets outside of criminal government control. It's also going to be a dark age of sorts, where the gap between rich and poor becomes far larger. There will be those with wealth, and those without, and much less hope of the poor people becoming wealthy, like there was in the past.

This is the ugly side of our success - we are successful because everyone else is not (and we were a little bit wiser and smarter). It's not really something to be proud of, because our success in many ways is a consequence of the poverty of others, and oppositely mirrors it. In this new dark age, we are the barons and dukes who pick up the pieces left over when the empire collapses on itself. It's not an age of prosperity for everyone - it is an age of survival. The barons and dukes, the "nobles", are holding their place in a bubble of civilization, surrounded by misery and chaos amongst the masses.

That's your new fiefdom. No amount of skill and hard-working effort can get it back for you once you lose it, so be careful. A dark age is dominated by the cruelest and most evil, so you are always in peril of having them kick in your door to take your honestly accumulated wealth.

Going forward from here, I recommend diversification into coins that are outside the lower end of coins that was so profitable during 2011. Those coins are not necessarily going to do poorly, but I think the best investments will be in classes of more expensive coins that are attractive to people with significant amounts of disposable wealth. The lower classes are going to be struggling just to survive, and won't be able to reach very far into the hard asset markets beyond perhaps small quantities of liquid and easily obtainable gold and/or silver.

The numismatic premiums of marginally numismatic coins will fall to just bullion value. Fortunately, all the modern Chinese coins minted 2000 and earlier are rare enough to avoid most of that, and some of them minted 2009 and earlier will be able to get by too. 1 oz silver and gold panda coins minted 2010 and later are far too numerous, so avoid them. Any numismatic premiums they have will quickly get wiped out if things get out of hand.

igh inflation is going to lead to compensating natural resource exploitation and environmental destruction that will most severely affect the lower classes. In particular, income-starved lower classes will start finding ways to exploit their local environments beyond sustainable levels. Local wildlife will be affected, and unregulated pollution will increase. Criminality will increase as a desperate measure for those looking to exploit the human population.

Those of you that are casual about the information you put out into the world about your wealth will regret it. You will become a target of those less fortunate, and less prepared than you. Protect your wealth, and protect your families.

Hopefully, the governments will back off from their usual criminality, instead of becoming more criminal, as is always the case in these circumstances. So far, it isn't looking good. Still, things are evolving faster in the modern era. The modern historical repeats of the 30 years war and the 100 years war that claimed millions of lives in medieval Europe played out within just 4 and 6 years during the 20th century. So, whatever horrors occur during this new dark age will hopefully transpire quickly, and you can then chalk up my most dire warnings as literary license to exaggerate Smiley

If thing go well, I'm hoping we'll see a transition into new, more stable currencies BEFORE the existing ones collapse. And, hopefully that will not require anybody getting ruthlessly screwed, leading to or becoming a pretext for more nasty wars. That's the worst case scenario. The faster pace of modern times is both good because the bad things go away faster, but also bad because things happen faster than you can get out of the way.
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 20, 03:53:17 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Aug 20, 01:23:36 pm »

It's been an interesting few days. The supply of 70s continues. There have also been many proofs made available. The total for the sold coins is about $36,000 - one of the lowest totals we've seen recently.

So for fun, I thought it might be interesting to count the coins:

70s: 62
Proof Pandas: 46
BU Pandas: 122
Platinum/Palladium Pandas: 5
Other/Expo Pandas: 63
Lunars: 48
Others: 89

Always keep in mind that I trim the list for every new posting. If there are 5 coins of a single type being offered, I eliminate the most expensive 2. So you can be sure that those listed here are the best available deals.
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 20, 01:45:11 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Aug 20, 01:23:41 pm »

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Our choices
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Investment grade 1/2 oz silver pandas
* Investment grade large date and small date pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 20, 01:40:03 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Aug 20, 01:23:47 pm »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Aug 20, 01:23:54 pm »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #80 article

1997 1/10 oz gold auspicious matters NGC MS 70 - $323.88 - This went incredibly cheaply compared to the MS 69 coin.

2010 5 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC - $670 - This one sold for more than its original Buy-It-Now price. Once again, it pays to be quick and snag good deals before the seller realizes it!

Coin Sold  Sale Price  Sale Type  Melt Ratio
1980 12 g piedfort copper olympic archery NGC PF 69 UC$3152auctionThousands
1983 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$5655.55auction151.
1984 20 g silver pagoda Kaiyuan Temple NGC PF 69 UC$2550auction92.4
1984 20 g silver pagoda Songyue Temple NGC PF 69 UC$2550auction92.4
1984 20 g silver pagoda Yingxian Temple NGC PF 69 UC$2500auction90.6
1984 20 g silver pagoda Zhenjue Temple NGC PF 69 UC$2550auction92.4
1986 1 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$2000auction1.07
1987 S 1 oz gold panda NGC MS 69 $2000offer1.07
1988 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$240.09auction1.29
1989 1 oz silver New York expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$635.75auction14.8
1989 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$143.5auction3.34
1989 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$247.5auction1.33
1991 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$290auction1.56
1992 15 g silver Marco Polo NGC PF 69 UC$318Buy-It-Now15.3
1993 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$255.99auction1.38
1993 22 g silver invention & discovery terracotta army NGC PF 69 UC$209auction6.88
1993 22 g silver invention & discovery umbrella NGC PF 69 UC$262auction8.63
1993 22 g silver invention & discovery zero NGC PF 70 UC$985auction32.4
1994 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$441auction2.37
1995 1 oz silver small twig large date panda NGC MS 69$399.99auction9.32
1996 1 oz silver proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$418.19auction9.74
1996 1 oz silver proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$395auction9.20
1997 1 oz silver goddess Mazu NGC MS 69$163.52auction3.81
1997 1/10 oz gold auspicious matters NGC MS 69$234.99auction1.26
1997 1/10 oz gold auspicious matters NGC MS 70$323.88auction1.74
1998 1 oz silver small date panda NCS NGC MS 69$290.01auction6.76
1998 1/2 oz silver Hong Kong expo panda NGC MS 69$155Buy-It-Now7.22
1999 1 oz silver large date serif 1 panda NGC MS 69$1033auction24.0
2000 1 oz silver frosted panda NGC MS 69$483auction11.2
2000 1/10 oz gold frosted panda PCGS MS 69$386.88auction2.08
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NCS NGC MS 69$232.38auction5.41
2002 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$600Buy-It-Now13.9
2003 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$611auction14.2
2004 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$255auction5.94
2006 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$525offer12.2
2009 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$275Buy-It-Now6.41
2010 5 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$670auction3.12
2011 1 oz silver lunar rabbit NGC PF 69 UC$180auction4.19
Total 38 coins:$34617.22
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Aug 20, 01:24:00 pm »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/



Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF

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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Aug 20, 01:24:04 pm »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!

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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Aug 20, 01:24:11 pm »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Aug 20, 01:24:16 pm »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Aug 20, 01:24:23 pm »

Recommended reading



Here's some recent articles of mine that can provide some guidance for investing in the current and coming market conditions:

* LBC makes me rich
* Wealth preservation: USA vs. China (By Zerosum)
* Coins are the hot new investment
* How high will the Chinese coin market go?
* 5 criteria to determine if a coin is a good investment
* 13 coin facts to learn for beginning investors of modern Chinese coins
* For those new to the modern Chinese coin market (By Batman)
* My First Chinese Panda Coin Purchase (By Tamo42)
* Modern Chinese coin investment strategy
* Black Swans, Fake Chinese coins, badon, & ebay! (By r3globe)
* Don't be the "whale" that pays too much for an investment coin
* Modern Chinese coin commentary and market predictions - 2010-Dec-15
* What makes people buy up all the Chinese panda coins?
* Investing in rare modern Chinese coins, some questions answered
* Cash is king for 2011 - Get ready for the coming bargain hunt
* Foresight: Gold, silver, coins, etc will weaken after January or February 2011
* Rumor: Modern Chinese coin charts coming out soon
* Why does this business site talk so much about investments?
* The chess game of rich vs. poor
* Why You Should Collect (or Invest) in Gold Panda Fractional BUs (By Batman)

Here's some handy websites for basic coin facts like mintages:

* Modern China Coins Data sorted by series
* china-mint.info Data sorted by year
* china-mint.info silver actual mintages
* china-mint.info gold actual mintages
* Chinese Coin Forum
* The Coin Compendium is coming!

Gold and Silver Panda Coin Buyer's Guide Book

This is THE panda book, written by the world's foremost expert on Chinese panda coins. Buy the book before the coin. Enough said.

If you have the book, you need the updates. Peter Anthony publishes his Pricepedia giving you all the latest prices in both the US in China for pandas, lunars, and other modern Chinese coins. Essential market information. He also offers a 30 day money-back guarantee. If you don't like it, you'll get a refund and get to keep the first month free! Make sure to tell him that you found his Pricepedia here at LBC!

Get the Pricepedia here!
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