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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #79 - Last chance before the slowdown ends  (Read 8163 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Aug 13, 10:49:43 am »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

The slowdown is almost over. This is your last chance to buy great coins before they either become totally unavailable, or available, but at higher prices. Dealers are selling good stuff to raise cash for a string of big auctions that begin 3 days from now. These sellers need to replace the coins they sell. Since this market is rising now, the prices they sell their coins for in this list are less than the prices that they will need to sell for next time.

The turnaround time at NCS/NGC is about 1 to 3 months, with most recent reports saying it's about 1 to 2 months right now. That means that when dealers go buy replacement inventory for the coins they sell today, they will be putting them on the market within 1 to 3 months, assuming they want to sell, of course.

Many sellers have been suddenly delisting their coins lately. It's often because they've noticed prices rising and they want to hold until they can figure out how much it will cost them to replace their inventory. Some of them just want to hold until prices stabilize, to lock in the maximum "lazy gains" from rising prices, without the work required to buy and sell.

Some of the sellers seem to be delisting because they've heard of some new information that's about to hit the market for their coins. I've leaked some rumors that I'm preparing to post some new info. And, I'm sure there's a lot of other things going on behind the scenes.

The ultra-short version of the above few paragraphs is that the slowdown is perhaps 1 to 2 months away from being obviously, completely, over. Then, a sustained rise in the market is expected to be plainly visible through ever-increasing public sale prices.

Prices are already rising behind the scenes, but it's not consistent - one day it's a record price, the next it's an average price. The opportunities for bargains are blowing away one by one like grains of stirring sand on a barren, wind-tickled rock. After the loose stuff is gone, if you want a piece, you're going to have to unleash a tornado to try to dislodge something. Tornadoes cost a lot more than today's cheap wind-tickling.

Good luck!
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 13, 01:06:52 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Aug 13, 11:12:53 am »

The predominance of a few sellers seems to be continuing. They fall generally into 3 types: those that auction off coins and letting the buyers dictate how much coins will sell for, those that try to guess what buyers will accept, and those that ask prices much higher than recent sales in the attempt to maximize profit margin over sales volume.

Unfortunately, many of the few sellers that regularly make coins available are of the last type.

This makes it appear that there are many more coins available than is truly the case. As a reader of this list, you might say to yourself, "Oh, I've seen this coin available for 5 months." That's because it has been the same coin listed several times by one of these last type of sellers! My whole point here is that even the "common" coins we talk about are still very rare. The summer slowdown is ending, take advantage of that while you can. Already, there have been a few cases of sellers raising their prices as soon as they are listed here. See the sold coins post for more on that.

Still, there are the first type that allow buyers to make the decisions. Check out the sold listings for the results of the 2007 25th anniversary PF 70 UC set that was put up for auction. Very interesting!
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 13, 12:00:46 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Aug 13, 11:13:00 am »

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Our choices
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Investment grade 1/2 oz silver pandas
* Investment grade large date and small date pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 13, 11:37:32 am by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Aug 13, 11:13:07 am »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Aug 13, 11:13:16 am »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #78 article

1981-1992 15 g silver lunar 12 coin set NGC PF 69 UC $19100 auction - just goes to show that even for very rare and expensive coins, there are buyers out there who want complete sets of things they like.

1988-1999 1 oz silver lunar 12 coin set NGC PF 69 UC $13000 auction - ditto.

1984 1/20 oz gold panda NGC MS 69 $260 auction - I highlighted this one because it ended up selling for more than the original Buy-It-Now price. Always remember that you are in competition with every other buyer. Make sure you are getting notified of new posts so you can snag them before others or before sellers raise their prices!

2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1982 NGC PF 70 UC $154.49 auction - This auction is very interesting. Most of these anniversary coins ended up selling for just over $100, but this one was far out in the lead. The mintage for the anniversary coins is the same for all years, but of course the original 1982 is the first panda. Apparently people even want the commemoration of that coin more than other commemorations! A similar thing happened with the 2000 coin, but not to the same degree.

2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1986 NGC PF 70 UC $87.88 auction - The same thing as the 1982 coin, but in reverse. The 1989 panda is probably the least popular of the low-mintage pandas, and its commemoration seems to be the least popular too.

Just in general, pay attention to the melt ratios! I mentioned in the last list that coin prices have not kept up with the surge in gold prices. The melt ratio shows that many buyers were able to buy coins for right around the gold value. These are numismatic coins going for bullion prices!!!


Coin Sold  Sale Price  Sale Type  Melt Ratio
1980 copper olympic 8 coin set NGC PF 69 UC$2888auction6795
1981 1 oz silver Lu Xun NGC PF 69 UC$950offer24.3
1981-1992 15 g silver lunar 12 coin set NGC PF 69 UC$19100auction84.1
1982 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$575Buy-It-Now3.29
1984 1/20 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$260auction2.97
1984 27 g silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM$2600auction76.4
1985 1 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$1925auction1.10
1986 1 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$1880auction1.07
1986 24 g silver Empress of China NGC MS 69$78auction2.57
1987 1 oz gold New Orleans expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$2569auction1.47
1987 S 1 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$1900auction1.08
1987 S 1/2 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$885auction1.01
1987 Y 1/2 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$1579offer1.80
1988 1 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$1925auction1.10
1988-1999 1 oz silver lunar 12 coin set NGC PF 69 UC$13000auction27.7
1989 1 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$1825auction1.04
1989 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$150auction3.83
1989 1 oz silver panda PGS MS 69$159offer4.06
1989 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$208.5auction2.38
1990 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69$225Buy-It-Now5.75
1990 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69$275offer7.03
1990 P 1 oz silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM$320auction8.19
1992 1/4 oz gold dragon and horse NCS NGC PF 69 UC$2850Buy-It-Now6.52
1994 1 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69$2998Buy-It-Now1.71
1994 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69$242.16auction6.19
1994 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69$275Buy-It-Now7.03
1994 1/4 oz gold 1 oz silver proof panda 2 coin set (NGC PF 69 UC)$1353auction138.
1995 27 g silver olympic handball NGC PF 69 UC$191.38auction5.62
1996 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69$220Buy-It-Now5.63
1996 1 oz silver small date panda NGC MS 69$199.95offer5.11
1997 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69$275Buy-It-Now7.03
1997 1 oz silver small date panda NGC MS 69$225Buy-It-Now5.75
1997 1/20 oz gold large date panda PCGS MS 69$193.5auction2.21
1997 P 1 oz silver proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$455.1auction11.6
1998 1 oz silver large date panda NCS NGC MS 69$588.88auction15.0
1998 1/20 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69$1400Buy-It-Now16.0
1998 27 g silver WWF clouded leopard NGC PF 69 UC$225auction6.61
1999 1/20 oz gold large date plain 1 panda PCGS MS 69$315auction3.60
2000 1 oz silver frosted panda NGC MS 69$596auction15.2
2000 1/4 oz gold frosted panda PCGS MS 69$895Buy-It-Now2.05
2004 1 oz silver panda NCS NGC MS 70$1100offer28.1
2006 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NCS NGC MS 69$899Buy-It-Now23.0
2006 1 oz silver horticultural expo panda NCS NGC MS 69$233Buy-It-Now5.96
2006 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$497Buy-It-Now12.7
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1982 NGC PF 70 UC$154.49auction15.8
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1983 NGC PF 70 UC$105.57auction10.8
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1984 NGC PF 70 UC$105.57auction10.8
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1985 NGC PF 70 UC$105.57auction10.8
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1986 NGC PF 70 UC$87.88auction8.99
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1987 NGC PF 70 UC$103.09auction10.5
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1988 NGC PF 70 UC$105.57auction10.8
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1989 NGC PF 70 UC$87.88auction8.99
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1990 NGC PF 70 UC$102.5auction10.4
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1991 NGC PF 70 UC$98.56auction10.0
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1993 NGC PF 70 UC$100.05auction10.2
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1994 NGC PF 70 UC$98.79auction10.1
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1995 NGC PF 70 UC$94.05auction9.62
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1996 NGC PF 70 UC$102.5auction10.4
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1997 NGC PF 70 UC$93.05auction9.52
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1998 NGC PF 70 UC$102.5auction10.4
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1999 NGC PF 70 UC$105.57auction10.8
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 2000 NGC PF 70 UC$117.5auction12.0
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 2001-2002 NGC PF 70 UC$90auction9.21
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 2003 NGC PF 70 UC$105.57auction10.8
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 2004 NGC PF 70 UC$96auction9.82
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 2005 NGC PF 70 UC$105.57auction10.8
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 2006 NGC PF 70 UC$102.5auction10.4
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 2007 NGC PF 70 UC$105.57auction10.8
2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary panda PCGS MS 70$400auction10.2
2010 1 oz silver capital market panda NGC MS 69$152.51auction3.90
2010 1 oz silver Shanghai mint panda NGC MS 69$214.38auction5.48
Total 72 coins:$74746.26
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 13, 12:02:59 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Aug 13, 11:13:22 am »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Aug 13, 11:13:27 am »

Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Aug 13, 11:13:32 am »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Aug 13, 11:13:37 am »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Aug 13, 11:13:43 am »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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