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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #78 - Buy & hold, secrets, 1998 large dates  (Read 8519 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Aug 10, 08:51:07 pm »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

The precious metals markets are on fire. Gold has passed platinum in value. Silver is booming up to the $40 level, but is not quite getting the attention that gold is. adamc4 mentioned some interesting things about why this might be at the CCF:

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3650.msg17531#msg17531

Quote
there are serious concerns about a global economic slowdown, especially with poor manufacturing data coming out of China, and that will be (and has been especially in the past week.) negative for commodities. This all makes for a difficult to read market
...
All this volatility makes for a great trading environment. I'll be looking to short gold simply because it's been acting like how it acted back around the first of May, but if it feels like buyers will continue to dominate then long I'll go. Can't wait to see how equities act tomorrow

http://china-mint.info/forum/index.php?topic=3650.msg17550#msg17550

Quote
Gold can rip while silver can get slammed. The correlation between the two is weak. Gold has firmly established itself as a currency while silver still sways between acting like an industrial commodity or acting like a poor man's gold.

Here's what I see: Criticism of America's inflation has caused the USA to delay pumping more worthless money into the economy. The good news is that the dollar isn't collapsing as fast as it was. The bad news is that people are losing their jobs, and the economy is slowing down. But, that's not all the bad news:

People are turning to gold and hard assets temporarily, but I think the enthusiasm for hard assets, including coins, is going to be muted briefly until America is forced to resume inflation to keep the economy from halting and then deflating. That's worse than inflation.

Rich people are taking their working capital that they use to run their business - which provide jobs for average people - and turning to gold instead. The government in America has been getting more aggressive in blatantly stealing people's wealth, without even pretending it's to "protect the children", or whatever.

This is scaring people, so they're doing what they can to get away from the government. Since business is forced by the government to run on American dollars, people are simply quitting their businesses, and converting their wealth into gold. At least they can hide the gold...

This economic disruption will be temporary. The government in America is exploiting the last few months of the summer slowdown to slow things down even further (so the inflation numbers don't look too crazy), before the holiday season arrives. The holiday season is when the most talk is made about how the economy is doing. That's when they'll turn on the inflation faucet, and let things run again.

The extra money in the economy will allow the hiring of temporary workers to reduce the jobless numbers, as well as produce some nice-sounding holiday sales statistics for the TV watchers - at least until the next dose of reality hits.

I have warned in the past that hard times hurt everybody, including wealthy people. The value of gold is rising, but the profit isn't what it seems. Inflation eats up most of it, and, that money put into gold COULD have been used to create real wealth and productivity, by putting people to work in profitable businesses. With the government taking almost everything from America, either by seizing it directly, or indirectly (inflating it, and then taxing the inflation as "profit", for example), hiding wealth in the form of hard assets like gold, coins, etc. is the wiser choice.

With everybody sitting on wealth, and not working, the value of everything drops. Do not be surprised if you have to sit on your coin investments while you ride out a brief economic contraction. It is possible that, if things go horribly wrong, you may need to sit on your coins for as long as 5 years! However, I don't foresee anything longer than 2 years (yet), and I am prepared for 18 months with no stress or worries.

Remember why you have been making so much money on coins - because these are bad times. Making a ton of money of money in bad times will prepare you for the good times. Even if you temporarily LOSE money during the bad times, you will still come out ahead when things improve. Let me explain this more simply:

Question: The dollar is decreasing in value, so you don't want to put your wealth into that. Hard assets have been increasing in value, but there's a risk they may decrease in value too. Which one is better?

Answer: Hard assets.

Why? Because the dollar isn't real. It'll go to zero, and never come back. The hard assets theoretically could go to zero too, but they WILL come back. In other words, you're stuck between a rock and a hard place. The rock is certain doom, and the hard place isn't. You know the rock is blocking you, you know why, and you know it isn't going to change. The hard place is where you want to be. It has hope.

OK, to be honest, I'm exaggerating how bad things are for asset holders. In fact, if you look at the numbers on gold and silver, things don't look bad at all - they look pretty good! But, I'm trying to prepare you for the inevitable doubts that will creep in, trying to persuade you to sell your hard assets. Ignore the doubts! You have made the right choices, and you will be rewarded in the end, no matter what happens now.

I had a discussion recently about what it takes to become wealthy. Is it luck? Is it hard work? What? Well, all those things help, and everybody has those things at least sometimes. So why isn't everyone rich? Because most of them screw it up eventually, and have to start over.

Right now, you've been riding the luck. You've been making ridiculous amounts of money on every coin you bought, just by reading this website. What are you going to do when you actually have to make a tough decision? Sell, or don't sell? I've been there before, and I made my tough decision. I refused to sell, no matter how hungry I got. I wore a coat in the spring time so I could sit around in the sun and do nothing without burning too much energy, and I waited for better times. I'm serious, I really did do that!

Now, I've got wealth most people only dream of. I earned it with a little hard work, a little luck, and a lot of patience. When the hard times come, do not doubt your decisions. Do not let your grip weaken. If you do, it'll be some hungry schmuck like me buying up your wealth for peanuts, and laughing all the way to the proverbial bank (not a literal bank, of course - that's for fools).

In 2008, prices for gold, silver, and Chinese coins plummeted after a fantastic rise. I feel the same vibes now that I felt back then. It only lasted a few months, but a lot of people sold me everything they had for a lot less than what I knew it would be worth not too far in the future. Those people are probably amongst the jobless masses wishing they had some gold right about now. Me? I'm wealthier than anybody I know (sorry, exaggerating again), and I'm not afraid to skip a meal to hold on to it.

In the end, you have to ask yourself this: "How bad do you want it?".

You don't have to go through what I went through to achieve the riches of your dreams. I'm giving you everything I learned for free. You're on easy-street. Just go through the motions, and you make money. It's simple! Just don't screw it up by suddenly changing your mind, and thinking "I never should have listened to that badon guy. That huge amount of free money I made by following his advice must have been a fluke." - that would be irrational, wouldn't it? Please say yes Smiley

Tip #1: Buy and hold.
Tip #2: Don't forget the "hold" part of tip #1.

For more info, check this out for some other people's points of view: Top people you should listen to on the CCF

I updated "badon's choices". It still has the usual stuff that has been there for a few weeks now, like pandas. Yay, boring, dependable, cha-ching, profit. No complaints here! But, how about a little excitement to go with your routine riches? Here's some stuff in my choices list that I know a secret about, that I'll probably say eventually:

* 1987 3.3 oz silver god of longevity (Surprise coming!)
* 1989 3.3 oz silver CLEAR CLAW god of war & wealth (Surprise coming!)
* 1984 20 g silver goldfish (Secret related to pagodas that just sold for $25,000!)
* 1990 18 g silver goldfish (Secret related to pagodas that just sold for $25,000!)

It wouldn't be a secret if I told you, would it? You'll just have to wait. I'm sure some of you have already guessed it. Here's another one that's not so secret:

* 1998 1 oz silver large date pandas

Buyers pay huge sums of money for not-so-rare sizes of the 1998 gold large date pandas. They have to because they want the whole set. But, they made silver pandas too, and most of the owners of 1998 gold large date panda sets DON'T have a silver one! Imagine that, $40,000 for a set of key gold pandas, but you forget to get the silver one?

The key half-ounce gold version reached a record of $14,000 last week. The silver version sells for $300 to $600, depending on the grade. How long do you think it will be before it costs $2000+ like the 2000 mirror and 1995 microdate?

Buy them when you find them!

One more thing: There are 3 genuine NGC graded pagodas in this list. The seller has a whole set on ebay, but the fourth one is fake. Just get the 3 coins in this list - they are genuine - and ignore the others. Two of those coins are 69's! I think this is the first time that a 69 grade pagoda has ever been publicly offered for sale. They were made in 1984, and we've been talking about them for months - but the first one only appears NOW! Why? Because they're ridiculously rare, of course.

The actual mintage was only 260 coins. I originally estimated that half of those survived. However, so few have come to the market even at big prices that I suspect that perhaps 100 or less may have survived. I'm not sure about that yet, but we keep finding lots of fakes, and no genuine specimens.

Chinese buyers are talking about pagodas now. 2 weeks ago, they had no respect. Now, Chinese buyers want them, and they're not finding them. There are about 45 known genuine sets that I am certain are genuine. Is this all of them? I don't think so, but how many more are out there that haven't been discovered yet? I guess that there's not more than double that number. However I try to fudge the numbers, I'm having a hard time coming up with a surviving population of much larger than 100 coins.

Even at $25k, that's cheap for such a rare SET of 4 coins. Other coins of similar rarity sell for 10 times that much for EACH coin. Obviously, there's a lot of upside left.

Have fun!
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 11, 12:41:47 am by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Aug 10, 08:51:48 pm »

The ebb and flow of the Chinese coin market continues. With the huge events in the financial and precious metals markets, buyers have become very skittish. There are many coins available right now, but the vast majority of them are from a handful of sellers. When these coins are sold, what will replace them? It seems everyone is waiting for the gold and silver prices to calm down and for the fall buying season to begin.

When sellers and buyers start wading back into the pool look out for tidal waves!
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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Aug 10, 08:51:53 pm »

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Our choices
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Investment grade 1/2 oz silver pandas
* Investment grade large date and small date pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 10, 09:39:52 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Aug 10, 08:52:01 pm »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Aug 10, 08:52:09 pm »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #77 article

1980 12 g copper olympic equestrian NGC PF 69 CA - $462 auction. Wow, for a copper coin that is quite a numismatic price.

1982 15 g silver lunar dog NGC PF 69 UC - $3250 auction. Just goes to show how grade rarity can really make an impace.

1985 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Sun Wu NCS NGC PF 69 UC - $333 offer. This one I highlighted because it ended up going for more than was initially stated when I put it on the list. Some sellers are keen observers and raise their prices quickly after appearing here. Be fast and you might snag a deal before the price is raised.

1996 P 1 oz platinum proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC - $14330 auction. A low mintage of 500 really makes this a prime collector's coin.


Coin Sold  Sale Price  Sale Type  Melt Ratio
1980 12 g copper olympic equestrian NGC PF 69 CA$462auction.4470
1980 12 g copper olympic soccer NGC PF 69 CA$355auction.3434
1980 15 g silver bronze age discoveries griffin NGC PF 69 UC$610auction.31.9
1980 15 g silver bronze age discoveries rhino NGC PF 69 UC$581auction.30.4
1982 1/2 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$3195offer.3.53
1982 15 g silver lunar dog NGC PF 69 UC$3250auction.170.
1984 1 oz silver Hong Kong expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$3850offer.97.6
1984 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$139.5auction.1.54
1984 22 g silver Chinese historical figures kneeling fire NGC PF 69 UC$212auction.7.57
1984 22 g silver Chinese historical figures officer looking left NGC PF 69 UC$180.38auction.6.44
1985 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Lao Tse NGC PF 69 UC$271auction.9.68
1985 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Sun Wu NCS NGC PF 69 UC$333offer.11.8
1986 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$138auction.1.52
1986 27 g silver Sun Yat Sen NGC PF 69 UC$650offer.18.9
1986 P 1/20 oz gold proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM$136.05auction.1.50
1987 S 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$142.5auction.1.57
1987 Y 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$139.5auction.1.54
1988 1 oz silver lunar dragon NGC PF 69 UC$925Buy-It-Now.23.4
1988 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$119.16auction.1.31
1988 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Bi Sheng$204.5auction.7.30
1988 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Yue Fei NGC PF 69 UC$227.5auction.8.12
1988 5 oz silver Hong Kong expo panda dragon NCS NGC PF 69 UC$2888offer.14.6
1989 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$150auction.3.80
1989 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$141.38auction.1.56
1989 1/4 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$482auction.1.06
1989 5 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$1800Buy-It-Now.9.12
1989 P 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$298.88auction.7.57
1990 2 g silver dragon & phoenix NCS NGC PF 69 UC$350Buy-It-Now.137.
1990 2 g silver dragon & phoenix NCS NGC PF 69 UC$350Buy-It-Now.137.
1990 27 g silver olympic diving NGC PF 69 UC$197.5auction.5.74
1991 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69$307.99auction.7.80
1991 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$141.5auction.1.56
1991 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Cao Xeuqin NGC PF 69 UC$241.5auction.8.62
1991 8 g gold lunar goat NGC PF 69 UC$1200auction.2.57
1991 P 1/20 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$426.9auction.4.72
1991 P 1/4 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$1033auction.2.28
1992 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69$325auction.8.24
1992 22 g silver invention & discovery compass NGC PF 69 UC$260auction.9.28
1992 30 g silver olympic cross country skiing NGC PF 69 UC$207.5auction.5.43
1993 1/10 oz gold invention & discovery fu lu shu NGC MS 70$830auction.4.59
1993 1/10 oz platinum panda NCS NGC PF 69 UC$1465auction.8.25
1993 1/2 oz gold invention & discovery umbrella NGC PF 69 UC$5888.88auction.6.52
1993 1/20 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69$214.5auction.2.37
1993 22 g silver invention & discovery zero NGC PF 69 UC$241.5auction.8.62
1993 30 g silver olympic fencing NGC PF 69 UC$190.5auction.4.99
1994 1/20 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69$230auction.2.54
1994 27 g silver olympic boxing NGC PF 69 UC$179.95auction.5.23
1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$975Buy-It-Now.24.7
1995 1/2 oz silver small date panda NGC MS 69$150Buy-It-Now.7.60
1995 1/4 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69$1360auction.3.01
1995 22 g silver invention & discovery tuned bells NGC PF 69 UC$190.5auction.6.80
1995 22 g silver traditional culture dancer NGC PF 69 UC$197.5auction.7.05
1995 27 g silver dinosaur set NCS NGC PF 69 UC$1888offer.54.9
1995 27 g silver olympic kick boxing NGC PF 69 UC$214.5auction.6.24
1996 P 1 oz platinum proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$14330auction.8.07
1997 1 oz silver forbidden city throne NGC PG 69 UC$350Buy-It-Now.8.87
1997 1 oz silver unicorn NGC MS 69$148.5auction.3.76
1997 1/10 oz gold auspicious matters NGC MS 69$237.5auction.1.31
1997 1/10 oz gold auspicious matters NGC MS 69$280Buy-It-Now.1.55
1997 2/3 oz silver modern paintings penguin NCS NGC PF 69 UC$888Buy-It-Now.33.7
1997 22 g silver forbidden city palace NGC PF 69 UC$191.16auction.6.82
1998 1 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69$3926.66auction.2.17
1998 1 oz silver large date panda NCS NGC MS 69$609auction.15.4
1998 1 oz silver small date panda NGC MS 69$300auction.7.60
1998 1 oz silver spring greeting PCGS MS 69$144.5auction.3.66
1999 1 oz silver large date serif 1 panda NGC MS 69$898.88auction.22.7
1999 1 oz silver small date panda NGC MS 69$305auction.7.73
1999 1 oz silver small date panda NGC MS 69$310.01auction.7.86
2000 1/10 oz gold lunar dragon NGC PF 69 UC$799auction.4.42
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$204.52auction.5.18
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$179.51auction.4.55
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$190.5auction.4.83
2004 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$209.51auction.5.31
2005 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$210.58auction.5.33
2005 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$206.99auction.5.24
2005 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$400Buy-It-Now.10.1
2006 1 oz silver horticultural expo panda NGC MS 69$187.51auction.4.75
2007 1 kg silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$3550auction.2.79
2007 1/25 oz gold 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 2 coin set NGC PF 70 UC$192.5auction.2.34
2007 1/25 oz gold and 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda NGC PF 70 UC $248.25auction.3.02
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1992 NGC PF 70 UC$214.49auction.21.7
2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 1992 NGC PF 70 UC$214.49auction.21.7
2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary panda PCGS MS 70$279.99auction.7.09
2010 1 oz silver Shanghai mint panda NGC MS 69$212.5auction.5.38
2010 5 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$660Buy-It-Now.3.34
2011 1 oz silver lunar rabbit NGC PF 69 UC$172.5auction.4.37
Total 86 coins:$72390.12
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Aug 10, 08:52:42 pm »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Aug 10, 08:52:47 pm »

Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Aug 10, 08:52:54 pm »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Aug 10, 08:52:59 pm »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Aug 10, 08:53:05 pm »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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