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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #77 - Pagoda price record, Ebay selling  (Read 7448 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Aug 06, 01:55:37 pm »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

A 1984 20 g silver Chinese scenery ancient temple pagoda NCS NGC PF 69 (UC?) 4 coin set sold privately for a record $25,000 recently. There were a few other sets offered privately at this price level around the same time, but they have been withdrawn from the market, apparently in anticipation of even higher prices. This is a remarkable development, since even I did not expect prices to continue surging so strongly during the slowdown. But, apparently, genuine specimens are much harder to find than the 260 mintage indicates.

I have made a guess that there may be less than 130 surviving sets. I know of only about 40 genuine sets that are certain to have survived. I do not know how many are still out there, waiting to be discovered, but I have made yet another guess that it could be as much as double the known surviving population. We're still talking about only around 100 surviving sets, or less.

The only thing that is known for certain is that it took $25,000 to cause one of these sets to change hands!

During the last year, these sets have been climbing the pricing ladder. At first they were ignored, and $800 was considered a strong price for them. Before that, you couldn't give them away. But, I consider the $800 price level to be the beginning of the exciting chapters in the pagoda story.

From $800 they rose to $1200, then $3000, $4500, and then $8000 for lower grade sets. After the $8000 level, they all disappeared, probably because their owners realized they were on a powerful rise upwards. During all that time I don't remember seeing a single 69 set offered for sale publicly. It seems you have to know somebody that has one, and if they're willing to let it go, they don't need to advertise it.

If this trend continues - and all indications are that it will - I expect to see $30,000 to $40,000 price tags on these sets within 2 years. Of course, we can't be sure of that since sector rotation has a way of stalling coins out at a plateau price for a while, BUT since these surges have taken place during the unlikely time of the slowdown, I can't rule out the possibility that they'll continue to be aggressively sought by wealthy collectors looking for a tremendous challenge. Finding a genuine set is extremely difficult!

...And, extremely rewarding. 3125% gains in one year!

Off the top of my head, I can't think of any other type of coin in the modern Chinese coin market that has had percentage gains as large as the pagodas. Can you? If not, then I nominate the pagodas as the biggest gainers of the last year Smiley

Ebay favors buyers - what about sellers?

I've heard stories like this many times before: An Ebay seller delivers to a buyer as promised, but the buyer asks Ebay to force a refund from the buyer. Despite the seller's most persuasive efforts, Ebay still sides with buyer. In some cases, the buyer might return his purchase, but he only sends an empty box. Or, the buyer might swap out the original item in his return, with another item of lower value.

I mostly talk about the great benefits to buyers for buying on Ebay, but these kinds of problems for sellers cause increases in costs for us buyers too. In the past, I've taken care in my writing to aid good sellers, and it's time for that once again.

Sellers need to know that there are some unwritten rules and important facts to know about how to do business safely on Ebay. Knowing this information will immediately help sellers, and it will ultimately help buyers too. Since buyers need to eventually sell also, this will be helpful in the future for buyers too. Here's some of the basic facts:

* The biggest problems come from sellers, not buyers.
* Buyer satisfaction is Ebay's top priority, even if it hurts sellers sometimes.
* Buyer returns are always allowed on Ebay, even if the seller indicates that the sale is final, or that the problem is NGC or PCGS's responsibility.
* In a dispute, Ebay almost always sides with the buyer.
* When in doubt, Ebay almost always sides with the buyer.

Ebay does a great job of making Ebay a friendly, and safe place for buyers to be fearless with spending their money. On Ebay, the buyer is NOT the enemy, but instead they are the best friend a seller could have. It is much more difficult to do business irresponsibly on the buyer's side than on the sellers. If a fraud is going to be committed, most of the time, it is the seller, not the buyer. So, for these reasons and more, Ebay is wise to favor buyers to ensure the long term health of the sellers in the Ebay marketplace. It's kind of counterintuitive, but it works! When the buyers are happy, the sellers are happy.

* Sellers who are victimized by incompetent/fraudulent/abusive buyers need thorough documentation to prove the truth.

Since Ebay almost always sides with the buyer once the finger-pointing starts, the only hope a seller has of persuading Ebay is to have an ironclad stack of documented proof that the buyer is doing something wrong. Usually, it has to be VERY wrong before Ebay will consider siding with the seller. If the buyer causes losses for the seller because he is simply incompetent, that will probably not be enough for a seller to win the dispute.

For example, I have heard of sellers winning disputes when they recorded video of themselves packaging, weighing, and shipping a buyer's items in a way that could prove that the item was actually shipped. Some shipping labels have a unique tracking number on them. When the seller sticks that label on the package so that the video clearly shows the tracking number, Ebay can confirm that not only did the tracking information show that the package was delivered, but also exactly what was in the box when it was shipped.

If the buyer claims he didn't receive the package, or that it didn't contain the items he purchased, Ebay can catch the buyer lying to them. If the buyer lies to Ebay, and then Ebay is going to much more likely to side with the seller. In fact, every time I have heard of the buyer being caught lying to Ebay, Ebay has decided in the seller's favor.

* Buyers who abuse their privileged status will be sanctioned by Ebay.
* Ebay MIGHT side with seller proof if Ebay also identifies a pattern of problems with the buyer.

Once Ebay notices that something is not right about a buyer, Ebay won't help them anymore. If you were Ebay, would you help some criminal buyer rob all your loyal sellers, if you KNEW FOR SURE that the buyer was doing that? Of course not. On Ebay, the sellers are not the enemy either! If you're a seller that has lost a dispute with a criminal buyer, don't give up. Pay attention to what that buyer is up to, and make sure you coordinate with other sellers (yes, your competition, I know) to accumulate documentation of what that buyer is doing.

I have heard of one case where Ebay has reversed its decision against a seller because a criminal buyer tried the same fraud trick on the next seller he bought from, and both sellers had the same documentation that something wrong was happening. The second seller won the dispute, and the first seller got his money back too, even though he had originally lost his dispute.

* The seller's best protection from fraud is legal action against the buyer.
* Sellers with stellar customer service track records, and large sales, get more consideration from ebay.

The best thing a seller has is their reputation. If a buyer makes false accusations against sellers with less than perfect track records, Ebay isn't going to see anything obvious that's wrong with it. But, if a seller with years of flawless selling, and thousands of happy customers suddenly gets accused, Ebay will want to know why. They may still not side with the seller, but it's one piece of the puzzle that will produce a picture of what the true intentions of the buyer are.

If Ebay feels they are not in a position to side with the seller, the seller can bring the case to court. Fraud is illegal on or off Ebay, and lawsuits are effective at stopping bad buyers. It's a pain for the seller, but since there aren't very many bad buyers, the more of them you push out of Ebay, the fewer there will be to ever bother you or your competitors again. The bad experience of one buyer or seller ends up hurting everyone.

Good buyers and sellers need to pay attention to what's happening to each other. If there's something not right, it should be corrected, even if the victim is your toughest competitor. The competition is healthy for the market, and thus for you too. If you're going to be successful, you need to earn it anyway, so there's no harm for yourself by cooperating with your competitors if you have information that may help them succeed against fraud.

Remember these unwritten rules, and watch out for each other. Overall, Ebay is very safe and prosperous place both to buy AND sell. But, like anything, if you don't know the rules, you're not going to play the game very well, and you may leave disappointed. Nothing is ever perfect, but hopefully if you have a bad experience, it won't be significant enough to discourage you from learning how to do it a little better next time.
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 06, 04:19:04 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Aug 06, 01:57:11 pm »

It's been an extremely eventful week in the world's financial markets. We've seen extreme volatility in the stock market between the worries over European banks and the American debt ceiling deal. And late last night, S&P came out with the news that it is downgrading the credit rating of US Treasury bonds.

So what does this mean for modern Chinese coins? Personally, I think we'll see more and more investors around the world get fed up with the risks and vagaries of the paper markets and start looking for better alternatives. This means new buyers for our markets! Because we are dealing with physical products that aren't securitized into abstractions with derivatives and whatnot Chinese coins have a much more stable value in the marketplace. Advantage: us!

This fall will see lots of new money coming into the Chinese coin market. Be prepared for a ride!
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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Aug 06, 01:57:15 pm »

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Our choices
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Investment grade 1/2 oz silver pandas
* Investment grade large date and small date pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 06, 02:16:19 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Aug 06, 01:57:22 pm »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Aug 06, 01:57:28 pm »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #76 article

1986 27 g silver WWF panda PCGS MS 69 - $382.5 - Wow, quite a move up from $288!

1990 2 g silver dragon & phoenix NGC PF 69 UC - $400 - People are starting to realize the rarity of this coin along with its thematic importance.

2006 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70 - $467.10 - Strong pricing compared to MS 69s going for $150 given the higher quality striking in the 2000s.


Coin Sold  Sale Price  Sale Type  Melt Ratio
1982 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$535Buy-It-Now3.21
1983 1 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$2628.88auction1.58
1984 22 g silver Chinese historical figures kneeling fire NGC PF 69 UC$199.95auction7.35
1985 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$2990offer89.5
1986 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Zhang Heng NGC PF 69 UC$199.95auction7.35
1986 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Zu Chong Zhi NGC PF 69 UC$199.95auction7.35
1986 24 g silver Empress of China NGC MS 69$125.99auction4.24
1986 27 g silver WWF panda PCGS MS 69$382.5auction11.4
1988 15 g silver lunar dragon NGC PF 69 UC$968Buy-It-Now52.2
1989 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$150Buy-It-Now3.91
1989 3.3 oz god of war & wealth clear claw NGC PF 69 UC$1500offer11.8
1990 2 g silver dragon & phoenix NCS NGC PF 69 UC$350Buy-It-Now141.
1990 2 g silver dragon & phoenix NGC PF 69 UC$400offer161.
1992 1 oz silver lunar monkey NGC PF 69 UC$888offer23.1
1992 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Zheng Chenggong NGC PF 69 UC$300offer11.0
1993 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Chou En-Lai NGC PF 69 UC$222.5auction8.18
1993 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Chu Teh NGC PF 69 UC$199.95auction7.35
1993 30 g silver olympic runners NGC PF 69 UC$259.95Buy-It-Now7.00
1994 1 oz silver unicorn PCGS MS 69$211.32auction5.51
1994 P 1 oz silver proof panda NCS NGC PF 69 UC$765auction19.9
1994 P 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$825auction21.5
1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$581auction15.1
1996 1 oz silver proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$449auction11.7
1997 1 oz silver ancient paintings peacock NCS NGC MS 69$350Buy-It-Now9.13
1997 1 oz silver lunar ox NGC PF 69 UC$700offer18.2
1997 1 oz silver Sino-Thailand friendship NGC PF 69 UC$189auction4.93
1997 1/10 oz gold proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC$1319auction7.92
1997 1/2 oz silver unicorn PCGS MS 70$127.55auction6.65
1998 1/4 oz gold small date panda PCGS MS 69$1835Buy-It-Now4.41
1999 1 oz silver large date plain 1 NGC MS 69$575Buy-It-Now15.0
2001 1 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$2399offer1.44
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NCS NGC MS 69$224.5auction5.85
2004 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$295.65auction7.71
2005 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$330.78auction8.63
2006 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$467.1auction12.1
2007 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$406auction10.5
2010 1 oz silver capital market panda NGC MS 69$201.01auction5.24
2010 1 oz silver Shanghai mint panda NGC MS 69$237.51auction6.19
Total 38 coins:$24989.04
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 06, 04:49:01 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Aug 06, 01:57:33 pm »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Aug 06, 01:57:40 pm »

Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Aug 06, 01:57:45 pm »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Aug 06, 01:57:50 pm »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Aug 06, 01:57:56 pm »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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