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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #76 - You heard it here first  (Read 6715 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Aug 03, 06:50:26 pm »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

The market is gaining speed quite nicely. Many, many inexpensive coins have been continuously booming even during the slowdown. In the section titled "Our choices", you see coins that have been getting continuously recommended as top picks, and now, they've taken off conspicuously, ahead of other coins.

You heard it here on LBC first:

* 1990 platinum pandas

I recommended these vigorously last year, but very few people were interested in them. I frequently know what's about to happen, but not always why it will happen, so I wasn't very good at persuading people to buy them. List after list, the same 1990 platinum pandas went unsold, even when I kept mentioning over and over that I think they're rarer than people realize - but I didn't know how correct I was, or why I was correct. Then, it was recently reported that some of the largest dealers in the world had melted hundreds of 1990 platinum pandas, and from there, the rest is history. I hope you took my advice and bought a few!

* Small size "fractional" gold pandas

They're only recently being called "fractional". I've never called them that until just now. For most of the last year, I've been telling people they need to buy the small gold pandas, and this time I was able to provide a few better explanations as to why I thought that.

Firstly, they're smaller and more affordable, therefore, there's more money chasing them up to higher percentage gains than coins that start out expensive just because of their gold value. Secondly, they got no respect, so many were damaged through handling, usage in jewelry, etc. Thirdly, not only are the planned mintages higher than the actual mintages, but even the reported actual mintages were much higher than the number that were finally sold - many of the unsold coins went straight back into the melting pot.

Now, everybody is talking about fractional gold pandas. The half ounce pandas were the big stars, while a few of the 1/10 and 1/20 oz gold coins were pretty impressive too. In addition, many of the most valuable platinum pandas are "fractionals".

This month's Pricepedia discusses fractional pandas in more detail, so if you aren't a subscriber yet, you better catch up to the rest of us and get educated with Peter Anthony's most popular publication.

Note that I've also pushed the 1/2 oz silver pandas, which haven't made huge moves yet. You might want to get yourself a few of those...

* Cheaper coins

When I first started my list, it was heavy on the very rare coins with extremely low mintages. Those quickly passed the $5000 mark, where most people could no longer afford them. Since then, the emphasis in this list has shifted to cheaper coins that everybody could afford. Sure enough, the hot topic now is the impressive gains that "common" coins are achieving as more and more people join this incredible market. Just watching how many new readers show up here and at the Chinese Coin Forum every day is impressive.

But, even with all this action, it's still nothing like it will soon become. This market is still somewhat of a secret. The Pricepedia mentions a funny situation where some people have been trying to keep this incredible market a secret, totally unsuccessfully, of course. But, not everyone has yet figured out how profitable it is, even in the cheaper coins.

It's getting quite difficult to find an investment grade coin for under $200! When this list started, they were available as cheaply as $30.

* Dragons, and other lunars

I've been telling you to buy dragons since the beginning. During the slowdown, I started practically yelling at you that you need to own dragons and other lunars. Now, prices for dragons are about triple what they were at the start of 2011, and still rising. The surging interest in dragons is "dragging" all the other lunars upwards too. Now, everyone is talking about dragons and lunars - Everyone smart, that is, because 2012, the year of the dragon, isn't even close yet! When the mints around the world start up their lunar dragon marketing machines, they'll be doing all the work for you, IF you are one of the smart people who are buying dragons and lunars well before 2012. Once that marketing does it's job, everybody is going to want what you have, and prices will rise.

* 1998 large date gold pandas

I've been pushing those pretty hard because I knew that the demand from wealthy Chinese investors was absolutely crazy. They're not the rarest coins to have, but for some reason they were among the first to catch on big, and now everyone uses them as a standard for comparison. When big-rich-Chinese-businessman compares his collection to that of his friends, if he's the only one that doesn't have a 1998 gold large date panda set, his collection doesn't matter! And, it has to be the SET, not just the key 1998 1/2 oz gold large date panda.

But, speaking of the key, when I first started recommending them, I think they were selling for about $6000, up from around $1500 in just a few months. That's a big increase, and seemingly a bad time to be just barely getting into them - but you know what? One just sold for $14,000 a few days ago! FIVE FIGURES! The few, the proud, the 5 figure panda...

* 70 grade coins

People used to not care about these, but collectors get competitive, and now they matter. I was recommending them when their premium was only 50% more than the same coin in a 69 grade. Now, it's hard to find a coin that sells for less than 200%. Some of the biggest prices have pushed up to around 1100%, or higher! Wow!

If there's 10 coins on the market during the worst of the slow times, but one of them is a 70, which one do you think is going to attract the most bidders? That's right, the 70. Even if it's a fairly common coin, it may be very rare in a 70 grade. Don't underestimate basic collector pride - some of them will throw huge amounts of money at the best coins, not because they really care that it has one less microscopic marks than a 69 does, but instead only because nobody else has it!

Now during the summer slowdown, everyone is noticing how well 70 coins are doing compared to 69's and lower. When there's competition, it will favor the best of the best disproportionately. Sometimes, it goes crazy, and seems to make no sense at all - but that's OK, as long as it's money in your pocket.

One thing's for sure - The West is still ahead of China at every phase of the maturation of their coin market, AND, China is catching up as soon as they feel comfortable to move forward. I have lost many fine 70 coins to Chinese buyers with more money than I've got, and I regret it every time I think about it. I will never see those coins again. I see the 69 versions every day, but the 70's are the ones that only a few people will be able to own, and it does amazing things to a collector's sense of pride to have the finest possible coin there is.

* Everything else

What in the list HAS NOT been a good investment? NOTHING! Everything we've listed here has been a winner. We ignored coins that weren't quite ready, and we focused your attention on the best coins for YOU. Many of us have become quite a bit more wealthy following these articles. I have many times encouraged people to put all of their disposable income into these coins, because I was completely confident it would pay off, and it has.

I take my own advice - if it works for me, it'll work for you. With a clear conscience, I've recommended that people "overpay" for nice investment coins, just like I do for myself. I have never regretted overpaying for a great coin, but I have always regretted not grabbing it when I got the chance, just because I was waiting for a bargain that never came...

But, occasionally, the bargains DO come, and I have to frantically scrape together some cash to get it, and it's so very exciting when I finally get the coin into my hands Smiley

You heard it here first. If you reacted when you heard it here first, you made lots of money. Sometimes, you only had minutes or seconds to make a decision on something that got posted that was priced at a fraction of the fair market value. Those of with that are registered on the forums and receive notifications of new posts usually get the first chance to buy.

And then you tell us about it in the "LBC makes me rich" topic, here:

http://www.livebusinesschat.com/smf/index.php?topic=2485.0

The slowdown is almost over, exciting times are coming! Have fun, and enjoy your profits!
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 03, 08:37:52 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Aug 03, 06:58:13 pm »

All I can say is "Wow!" After a slow few weeks, the supply of available investment grade Chinese coins has exploded! List #75 ended up being 25 pages long, and this list is starting off at 14 pages.

A lot of auctions are presenting buyers with great deals, but we are also seeing much more aggressive bidding on Buy-It-Now listings. In the recent past offers far outnumbered Buy-It-Nows, but that has reversed in this most recent counting of sold coins.

That is not to say there isn't opportunity. Check out my choices for a new selection. Yes, you'll have to actually scroll down and read it - this minimal amount of legwork separates the wannabe's from the collectors who will make the big bucks.

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* Our choices
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Investment grade 1/2 oz silver pandas
* Investment grade large date and small date pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 05, 01:56:34 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Aug 03, 06:58:24 pm »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Aug 03, 06:58:30 pm »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #75 article

Look at the fractional gold sales. Notice anything interesting?

How about the 2000 1 oz silver frosted pandas?

Coin Sold       Sale Price  Sale Type       Melt Ratio
1979 1/2 oz gold year of the child NGC PF 69 UC$3600auction4.35
1980 10 g gold olympic NGC PF 69 C$1825auction3.41
1980 8 g gold olympic skiing NGC PF 69 UC$1426auction3.33
1983 1/10 oz gold PCGS MS 69$260.55auction1.57
1983 1/2 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$1226auction1.48
1985 1/10 oz gold PCGS MS 69$255auction1.54
1986 P 1 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$2600offer1.57
1986 P 1/20 oz gold proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM$181.38auction2.19
1987 S 1/10 oz gold PCGS MS 69$228.5auction1.38
1987 S 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$511auction6.17
1987 Y 1/10 oz gold PCGS MS 69$250auction1.51
1987 Y 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$152.5auction1.84
1988 1 oz gold lunar dragon NGC PF 69 UC$4695offer2.83
1988 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$130.53auction1.57
1989 1 oz platinum proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM$5648auction3.14
1989 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$176.99auction4.33
1989 1 oz silver proof NGC PF 69 UC$293.88auction7.19
1989 15 g silver lunar snake NGC PF 69 UC$668Buy-It-Now33.8
1990 1 oz silver large date panda NCS NGC MS 69$152.5auction3.73
1990 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$130.5auction1.57
1990 1/4 oz platinum panda NGC PF 69 UC$1251auction2.78
1990 15 g silver China unearthed artifacts leopard NGC PF 69 UC$406auction20.5
1990 P 1/20 oz gold proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM$221.38auction2.67
1991 1 oz silver large date panda PCGS MS 69$247.5auction6.06
1991 1 oz silver large date panda PCGS MS 69$300Buy-It-Now7.34
1991 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$473.11auction11.5
1991 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$511auction6.17
1991 3/8 oz bimetallic Hong Kong expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$2025auction4.83
1992 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$476.1auction11.6
1992 1 oz silver small date panda NGC MS 69$430offer10.5
1992 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$511auction6.17
1992 22 g silver Chinese historical figures Zheng Chenggong NGC PF 69 UC$249.99auction8.62
1993 1 oz silver small date panda NGC MS 69$321.01auction7.86
1993 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$220.5auction2.66
1994 1 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$2750auction1.66
1995 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 70$2008offer49.1
1995 1 oz silver large twig panda NGC MS 69$160Buy-It-Now3.91
1995 1 oz silver large twig panda PCGS MS 69$213.5auction5.22
1995 1/20 oz gold small date panda NCS NGC MS 69$260auction3.14
1995 1/20 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69$325Buy-It-Now3.92
1995 1/20 oz gold small date panda PCGS MS 69$504auction6.09
1996 1 oz silver small date panda NCS NGC MS 69$152.51auction3.73
1996 1/10 oz gold large date panda NGC MS 69$455Buy-It-Now2.74
1997 1/20 oz gold large date panda PCGS MS 69$460auction5.56
1997 1/4 oz gold large date panda PCGS MS 69$850Buy-It-Now2.05
1997 2/3 oz silver modern paintings penguin NCS NGC PF 69 UC$888Buy-It-Now32.6
1997 22 g silver Chinese traditional culture 4 coin set NGC PF UC$1699Buy-It-Now58.6
1997 22 g silver traditional culture Genghis Khan NGC PF 69 UC$259.95Buy-It-Now8.97
1998 1 oz gold small date panda PCGS MS 69$4199.99Buy-It-Now2.53
1998 27 g silver WWF clouded leopard NGC PF 69 UC$259.95Buy-It-Now7.30
1999 1/10 oz gold small date panda NCS NGC MS 69$637.77auction3.85
1999 1/20 oz gold large date plain 1 panda PCGS MS 69$366auction4.42
2000 1 oz silver frosted panda NCS NGC MS 69$555auction13.5
2000 1 oz silver frosted panda NCS NGC MS 69$556auction13.6
2000 1 oz silver frosted panda NGC MS 69$560auction13.7
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$225.5auction5.52
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$212.5auction5.20
2004 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$280auction6.85
2004 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$883auction21.6
2005 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$209.51auction5.13
2005 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$251auction6.14
2006 1 oz gold panda MS 70$4050auction2.44
2006 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$500offer12.2
2007 1/25 oz gold 25th anniversary proof panda 1994 NGC PF 69 UC$106.5auction0.25
2008 1 oz silver olympic goat jumping NCS NGC MS 69$164.49auction4.02
2008 1 oz silver olympic hoop rolling NCS NGC MS 69$140.5auction3.44
2008 1 oz silver olympic kite flying NCS NGC MS 69$158.49auction3.88
2008 1 oz silver olympic shuttlecock NCS NGC MS 69$157.5auction3.85
2011 1 oz silver Xi'an horticultural expo panda NGC MS 69$274.88Buy-It-Now6.73
1994 1 oz silver small date panda NGC MS 69$222.51auction5.44
2009 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$202.5auction4.95
2007 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$427.77offer10.4
1998 1 oz silver Kuan Yin NGC MS 69$375Buy-It-Now9.18
Total 73 coins:$59016.24
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 03, 07:25:08 pm by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Aug 03, 06:58:39 pm »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/



Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Aug 03, 06:58:47 pm »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Aug 03, 06:58:54 pm »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Aug 03, 06:58:59 pm »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Aug 03, 06:59:11 pm »

Recommended reading



Here's some recent articles of mine that can provide some guidance for investing in the current and coming market conditions:

* LBC makes me rich
* Wealth preservation: USA vs. China (By Zerosum)
* Coins are the hot new investment
* How high will the Chinese coin market go?
* 5 criteria to determine if a coin is a good investment
* 13 coin facts to learn for beginning investors of modern Chinese coins
* For those new to the modern Chinese coin market (By Batman)
* My First Chinese Panda Coin Purchase (By Tamo42)
* Modern Chinese coin investment strategy
* Black Swans, Fake Chinese coins, badon, & ebay! (By r3globe)
* Don't be the "whale" that pays too much for an investment coin
* Modern Chinese coin commentary and market predictions - 2010-Dec-15
* What makes people buy up all the Chinese panda coins?
* Investing in rare modern Chinese coins, some questions answered
* Cash is king for 2011 - Get ready for the coming bargain hunt
* Foresight: Gold, silver, coins, etc will weaken after January or February 2011
* Rumor: Modern Chinese coin charts coming out soon
* Why does this business site talk so much about investments?
* The chess game of rich vs. poor
* Why You Should Collect (or Invest) in Gold Panda Fractional BUs (By Batman)

Here's some handy websites for basic coin facts like mintages:

* Modern China Coins Data sorted by series
* china-mint.info Data sorted by year
* china-mint.info silver actual mintages
* china-mint.info gold actual mintages
* Chinese Coin Forum
* The Coin Compendium is coming!

Gold and Silver Panda Coin Buyer's Guide Book

This is THE panda book, written by the world's foremost expert on Chinese panda coins. Buy the book before the coin. Enough said.
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Aug 03, 06:59:18 pm »

badon's choices


* 1/2 oz silver pandas
* 1990 dated coins
* 1990 small size 1 g gold and 2 g silver dragon & phoenix
* 1995 to 1997 Romance of the Three Kingdoms
* Chinese Historical Figures coins that feature Three Kingdoms people
* 1989 Chinese Historical Figures set.
* Lunars, all of them
* All kinds of dragons
* Pandas, all of them - yes, ALLLL of them (except the exceptionally unexciting exceptions like the high mintage 2010 and 2011 1 oz silver and gold)
* 1989 3.3 oz silver god of war & wealth clear claw, when selling too cheaply in a 69 grade.
* Coins in a 70 grade
* All unrecognized varieties
* All expo coins, including coins that do not have pandas on them
* Painting, literature, and all other kinds of art-themed coins

tamo42's choices

* 1995 silver large twig pandas - everyone is focused on the microdate leaving the large twigs as a deal
* fractional gold pandas from the 80s and 90s
* gold proof pandas selling at a discount to gold BU pandas
* dragons of all types
* 5 oz silver proof pandas
* 2001 D silver pandas
« Last Edit: 2011 Aug 03, 08:29:54 pm by badon » Logged

Neal McSpadden
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