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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #74  (Read 7143 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Jul 27, 10:21:31 am »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

How about a little excerpt from today's chat:

<+groovemac> badon: so the summer slowdown is slowing down at an ever-slowing rate?
<+groovemac> lol
<@badon> groovemac: exactly!
<@tamo42_wk> the 2nd derivative of the slowdown is positive Smiley
<@tamo42_wk> curvature up!
<+groovemac> lol
<+groovemac> it's been a long time since i took calculus
<+groovemac> i guess it all depends on what PMs do once the debt "crisis" settles down
<+groovemac> if the commodity sector takes a hit then pandas stay range bound
<+groovemac> otherwise, they'll explode upward?
<@tamo42_wk> that seems likely
<@tamo42_wk> although there will be upward pressure from china no matter what happens in the us

In other words, the window of opportunity for hugely profitable buying is closing. Prices are moving upwards, and instantly-profitable bargains are getting harder and harder to find. If you have a secret weapon in reserve that you've been saving for purchasing coins (like a big wad of cash under your mattress), now is a good time to pull it out and raid the market with it.

The summer slowdown was a buyer's market. Even pansies could flourish with little competition from other buyers. But, pansies are getting trampled as the aggressive tigers come back to the market, and buy up "your" coins while you wait patiently for a better deal. There are still plenty of "better deals" out there, but beginning next month, everything is going to look like it was a "better deal" during the summer.

I am thrilled that by the time we publish another list, it will be serving readers at the beginning of August! The summer slowdown will be hanging on by its fingernails over the edge of a Chinese office building like Jackie Chan in Rush Hour, doomed to be spoken of in the past tense while grumbling "I'm not dead yet!".

And so ended the summer movie season too Smiley

What have I been buying during the slowdown? Pandas, dragons, and panda/dragon medals (can you think of the one I'm talking about?). I've bought a few other lunars too, always high grade, with emphasis on the scallop plum flower shaped coins. I've been buying coins with a 1990 date because they're all rarer than people realize, due to the decreased demand for Chinese products after the 1989 Tiananmen Square incident.

My favorite coin for 1990 is the 2 gram silver 5 jiao dragon & phoenix. This coin has enormous popularity in the larger silver and gold versions, but has been totally ignored in the 2 gram silver version. The only reason they don't appear in my list very often is because they're so hard to find! The planned mintage was 50,000, which is still a low figure, but I don't think anything even close to that many were actually produced.

On top of that, it is the perfect size for jewelry. The popularity of the dragon & phoenix coins is also their curse, due to being damaged for use in jewelry.

There's a small 1 gram gold version too, which is even more difficult to find, than the 2 gram silver. It has a planned mintage of 50,000 also, but I have only found one of them!

Another notable series of coins to mention is the Romance of the Three Kingdoms sets from 1995 to 1997. In America, teenage girls read the Twilight series and Harry Potter. In China, it's the ancient epic true story of the Three Kingdoms. Everyone knows and loves this dramatic piece of literature describing wealth and power, romance and tragedy, and the rise and fall of dynasties. That has made the coins commemorating it very popular, but they have declined in price during the slowdown. Even more importantly, they have become AVAILABLE during the slowdown. They are an important, culturally significant series to collect.

In the discussions following the publication of the last list, #73, it came to light that some of the coins of the Chinese Historical figures series honor some of the same people in the Romance of the Three Kingdoms sets. If I were to make a bet on which coins from the historical figures series were going to shine the brightest, the fastest, I would say it's going to be the rarest key 1989 set AND the individual coins that represent the people in the Three Kingdoms.

Another interesting thing to mention is that it was recently revealed that the 1989 set does NOT have any restrikes. That means that the plentiful availability of them was just another temporary fluke - that seems to have passed already! Congratulations to everyone that bought those while they were cheap. Ignoring the critics who question a coin's true rarity has always been a wise decision for me. It's not often that a recognized rare coin is discovered to be even rarer than previously believed.

There's lots of choices of good stuff to buy in this market, and lots of new things to learn and discoveries to make. For example, I don't know all the characters of the Three Kingdoms, and that means whoever figures it out first, will have the first opportunity to buy the historical figures coins that depict them. You get a chance to do some research on your own for a topic that has never been published before, and you'll be able to profit from it.

Happy collecting and investing!

P.S. Has anybody else noticed how much improved the list is now that tamo42 is helping with it? Be sure to tell him when you benefit from the changes he's making. Great job tamo42!
« Last Edit: 2011 Jul 27, 12:02:16 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Jul 27, 10:24:00 am »

Welcome to list #74. You might notice a change on the sold listings. I've reformatted things a little bit after reading a post by Grip on CCF. He made the point that with the recent moves in precious metals that the prices of pandas have not kept up. This would mean that the pandas were getting cheaper compared to their melt value. This really struck home for me. I've always considered melt values in my purchases, but had not applied any rigorous analysis to more than one listing at a time. Now I have Smiley. Each sold listing will also have a melt ratio. If a silver coin has a ratio of 2.51, this means that the coin sold for 2.51 times the value of the silver.

Another change is that I am going to be adding new listings with just pricing information first. I will go back in later and fill out all the research details about previous sales, mintages, and so on. This way if you find something you are looking for, you will be able to buy it as quickly as possible (before your competition!).

The third change has nothing to do with me. It has to do with the increasing number of sellers out there who have wised up about our little lists here. There have been several cases, more than usual, of sellers raising their prices after being listed here on LBC. So if you want to get the best deal, you'll probably want to be on your toes and get notified of new postings ASAP. We recently moved servers, and the notifications were off for a day or two. If you haven't received a notification lately, be sure to click "Notify" on the menu bar at the top-right of the page.

The LBC investment lists continue to evolve. As things change, I'd love to hear feedback from everyone. Don't be shy about posting. The more the merrier!

Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* My choices
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Investment grade 1/2 oz silver pandas
* Investment grade large date and small date pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Jul 27, 10:50:47 am by tamo42 » Logged

Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Jul 27, 10:24:07 am »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.
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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Jul 27, 10:24:19 am »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #73 article

1993 1 oz silver ancient paintings peacock NGC PF 69 UC $1100 Buy-It-Now. Someone was very quick on the ball and snapped up this deal in a hurry.

2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70 $2470 offer. Wow! Almost 10x the price for a MS 69 specimen. That's what can happen if you are selling one of only 18 such coins.

1998 P 1/10 oz gold culture of dragons NGC PF 69 UC $1177 auction. Dragons continuing their move.

Coin Description   Sale Price     Sale Type   Ratio to Melt
1979 1/2 oz gold 30th anniversary of the People's Republic of China Hall of the People PCGS PR 69 DCAM$2025auction2.49
1979 1/2 oz gold 30th anniversary of the People's Republic of China Heroes Monument PCGS PR 69 DCAM$1600auction1.97
1979 1/2 oz gold 30th anniversary of the People's Republic of China Mao Memorial Hall PCGS PR 69 DCAM$2051auction2.52
1979 1/2 oz gold 30th anniversary of the People's Republic of China Tiananmen Square PCGS PR 69 DCAM$2026auction2.49
1979 1/2 oz gold year of the child NGC PF 69 UC$3250auction4.00
1982 1/10 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$511.99auction3.15
1983 1/2 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$1228auction1.51
1984 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$199auction2.45
1984 1/4 oz gold Chinese historical figures Huang Di NGC PF 69 UC$1237.67auction3.05
1985 1/20 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$204.5auction2.52
1986 1/2 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$885auction1.09
1987 1 oz gold San Francisco expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$2875auction1.77
1987 Y 1/2 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$978auction1.20
1988 1/2 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$958auction1.18
1988 8 g gold WWF golden haired monkey NGC PF 69 UC$920auction2.20
1988 P 1/4 oz gold proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM$798Buy-It-Now1.96
1989 1 oz gold panda NGC MS 69$2225.01auction1.37
1989 1 oz silver New York expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$762.02auction18.6
1989 1/2 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69$1027auction1.26
1989 1/4 oz gold New York expo panda NGC PF 69 UC$970auction2.39
1989 8 g gold WWF Chinese tiger NGC PF 69 UC$911auction2.18
1993 1 oz silver ancient paintings peacock NGC PF 69 UC$1100Buy-It-Now26.9
1993 1 oz silver large date panda PCGS MS 69$290.02auction7.10
1994 1 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69$2898Buy-It-Now1.78
1994 1 oz silver large date panda PCGS MS 69$273auction6.69
1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$909auction25.6
1995 1 oz silver small twig small date panda PCGS MS 69$1043auction25.5
1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC$740auction18.1
1997 1 oz silver large date panda PCGS MS 69$163.5auction4.00
1998 1 oz aviation expo panda NGC MS 69$203.5auction4.98
1998 1 oz silver small date panda PCGS MS 69$232.51auction5.69
1998 P 1/10 oz gold culture of dragons NGC PF 69 UC$1177auction7.25
1999 1 oz silver small date panda NGC MS 69$311auction7.62
1999 2/3 oz scallop flower lunar rabbit PCGS PR 69 DCAM$900offer0.76
2000 1 oz silver frosted panda NGC MS 69$611auction14.9
2000 1/10 oz gold frosted panda NGC MS 69$395.01auction2.43
2001 - 2011 1 oz silver panda 11 coin set NGC MS 69$1640auction3.65
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69$275offer6.74
2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$2470offer60.5
2004 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$320auction7.84
2005 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$221.02auction5.41
2005 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69$234.4auction5.74
2006 1 oz silver horicultural expo panda NGC MS 69$203.5auction4.98
2007 1/25 oz gold 25th anniversary proof panda 1993 NGC PF 69 UC$104auction1.60
2008 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70$300auction7.35
2008 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70$300auction7.35
2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary panda NGC MS 70$222.5auction5.45
2011 1 oz silver lunar rabbit NGC PF 69 UC$201auction4.92
Total 48 coins:$45380.15
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Jul 27, 10:25:10 am »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Jul 27, 10:25:20 am »

Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF



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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Jul 27, 10:25:27 am »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Jul 27, 10:25:35 am »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Jul 27, 10:25:42 am »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Jul 27, 10:25:50 am »

Recommended reading



Here's some recent articles of mine that can provide some guidance for investing in the current and coming market conditions:

* LBC makes me rich
* Wealth preservation: USA vs. China (By Zerosum)
* Coins are the hot new investment
* How high will the Chinese coin market go?
* 5 criteria to determine if a coin is a good investment
* 13 coin facts to learn for beginning investors of modern Chinese coins
* For those new to the modern Chinese coin market (By Batman)
* My First Chinese Panda Coin Purchase (By Tamo42)
* Modern Chinese coin investment strategy
* Black Swans, Fake Chinese coins, badon, & ebay! (By r3globe)
* Don't be the "whale" that pays too much for an investment coin
* Modern Chinese coin commentary and market predictions - 2010-Dec-15
* What makes people buy up all the Chinese panda coins?
* Investing in rare modern Chinese coins, some questions answered
* Cash is king for 2011 - Get ready for the coming bargain hunt
* Foresight: Gold, silver, coins, etc will weaken after January or February 2011
* Rumor: Modern Chinese coin charts coming out soon
* Why does this business site talk so much about investments?
* The chess game of rich vs. poor
* Why You Should Collect (or Invest) in Gold Panda Fractional BUs (By Batman)

Here's some handy websites for basic coin facts like mintages:

* Modern China Coins Data sorted by series
* china-mint.info Data sorted by year
* china-mint.info silver actual mintages
* china-mint.info gold actual mintages
* Chinese Coin Forum
* The Coin Compendium is coming!

Gold and Silver Panda Coin Buyer's Guide Book


This is THE panda book, written by the world's foremost expert on Chinese panda coins. Buy the book before the coin. Enough said.

Pricepedia modern Chinese coin price guide with bonus using "LBC" referral code


$68.88 Buy-It-Now.

In addition to the book you can subscribe to the PricePedia, which gives up-to-date monthly pricing information on over 700 different coins, as well as a few pointers on what's hot or undervalued in the market. If you send a message to the author mentioning LBC for the referral code, you get a bonus list of undervalued coins, along with your subscription.
« Last Edit: 2011 Jul 27, 11:07:44 am by tamo42 » Logged

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