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Author Topic: Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #73  (Read 5401 times)
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badon
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« on: 2011 Jul 23, 10:41:10 am »



The article is broken up into separate posts - The coin investments list is at the end of the article

Fakes are a hot topic these days. The high prices of modern Chinese coins have brought many more fakes into the market. These new fakes are very high quality, and require an expert to distinguish from a genuine coin. Some of them are so good, NGC must consult with these outside experts to be sure of a coin's authenticity.

Once holdered in a genuine NGC holder, NGC is backing their determination of authenticity with their guarantee of compensation for coin buyers if it turns oun NGC made a mistake. NGC's guarantee is the best in the industry. PCGS has begun rejecting many Chinese coins simply because they're not willing to put in the work it takes to verify the authenticity of a coin. There is no such thing as a fake that is identical to a genuine coin.

Medals are being targeted for counterfeiting in China because they do not have the legal protections that coins with a face value have. I have written in the past why medals matter: all coins become "medals" eventually, when their legal status becomes obsolete. China is the most familiar with this phenomenon, and they're the most likely to value "medals" with no face value equally to "coins" that do have a face value.

When I write about coins, I call them all coins, and I tend not to distinguish between medals and coins. Historically, there has been no distinction, and the notion that some "medals" are not "coins" is a recent idea that seems to come from America, where there is little to no experience with obsolescence and replacement of national currencies.

In China, and much of the rest of the world, a coin is a "coin" if it is a metal disk that could be used as money, even if it was privately issued. America does have that too (mostly colonial and territorial issues), but it is often forgotten in discussions of medals versus coins.

However, right now, Chinese collectors are making the same mistake that has been made over and over in the past. They're turning away from medals because they think they should because they have no legal protection against counterfeiting from the government. This has kept medals very cheap for wise Western buyers who know that Chinese people will eventually figure it out as well as some of us have.

China's legal protection extends only to their fiat currency, which is guaranteed to eventually become worthless. Even China's own government is preparing for this eventuality by hoarding the world's gold and silver. This is means that China is selling Westerners their "medals" too cheaply by mistake.

The first thing that usually makes a coin collectible is its official status. It doesn't matter much what it is made of, or what is printed on it, as long as it is official. With the world facing a devaluation crisis in the legally protected fiat currencies, the official "medals" that are made of precious metals like gold and silver (or even copper) are quickly becoming equal to the coins that have a face value. In both cases, the face value is, or will become, equally zero.

This is why expo pandas are very valuable, even though they're "only medals". They're official, rare, popular with collector, and made of gold, silver, copper, etc - and that's what gives them value. The face value does not exist, and wouldn't matter even if it did. Some of these medals are more valuable than equally rare pandas that have a face value, just because their rarity is more appreciated by collectors for whatever reason.

In the end, it will all come down to rarity. Face value - "coin" versus "medal" - will not matter. For this reason, I have been putting most of my effort into buying rare medals (and I prefer to just call them "coins"). They are terrifically undervalued due to fear of fakes and the lack of legal protection for medals in China.

The legal protection for medals is something that can come at any time. The USA has already done this with the Hobby Protection Act, where counterfeiting pretty much anything is a crime. China will eventually be forced to do the same, just to protect their market. Now is the time to be buying medals, when only some of them have fair values relative to their rarity.

NOTE:

Other coins can become valuable collectibles even if they're not technically official. In some cases, even if they're not at all official. The 1987 1 oz silver god of longevity medal was mentioned at the CCF today to possibly not be official, even though it was made at the Chinese mint. Coins that are unofficially made at the Chinese mint are strong candidates for being exceptions to the rule that a coin must be official to be valuable. Indeed, the 1987 1 oz silver god of longevity is currently being offered at around $2500, which is certainly not cheap for an ounce of silver, but is quite a bargain for a popular coin with a mintage estimated to be about 750.
« Last Edit: 2011 Jul 23, 01:58:02 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Jul 23, 10:50:39 am »

A couple notes: The fractional gold coins from the 80s and 90s have been seeing a lot of activity. The availability of lunar coins is once again decreasing. The availability of platinum and palladium coins is decreasing. The slow down isn't over, but it's clearly past the slowest part. Auctions remain your best bet for picking up an undervalued coin.


Table of contents


Not everything is in the table of contents, but all the important stuff is here.

* Opera web browser
* Coins sold from the previous list
* Chinese coins are better
* Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts
* Recommended reading
* My choices
* Problem sellers
* NCS conserved
* 70 grade coins
* Proof pandas
* BU pandas
* Investment grade 1/2 oz silver pandas
* Investment grade large date and small date pandas
* Platinum and palladium pandas
* Other pandas and expo coins
* Lunar coins
* Other investment grade coins
* Helpful searches
« Last Edit: 2011 Jul 23, 11:05:43 am by tamo42 » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Jul 23, 10:50:45 am »

Opera web browser



I have found that the fastest web browser for loading these pages of coins is the Opera web browser. With other browsers, my fastest quad core computer slows down a lot on just one page. With Opera, I can load the whole thing up on my slowest computer, no problem. Get it now:

http://www.opera.com/browser/download/

There's also a handy "portable" version that does not require installation:

http://www.opera-usb.com/operausben.htm

Click on "Mainpage" to find versions in other languages besides English.



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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Jul 23, 10:50:55 am »

Coins sold from the Modern Chinese coin investments LIST #72 article




1982 gold panda 4 coin set PCGS MS 69  $9,995 auction. Someone scooped up a good deal here, depsite the high price. The 1/2 ounce alone sold recently for $3100.

Over $26,000 worth of coins sold from List #72!

2002 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70  $911 auction.
2005 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70  $400 offer.
2008 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70  $300 auction.
2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary panda NGC MS 70  $305.11 auction.
1982 1/4 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69  $668 auction.
1982 gold panda 4 coin set PCGS MS 69  $9,995 auction.
1983 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69  $330.88 auction.
1984 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69  $255.02 auction.
1984 1/4 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69  $898 auction.
1985 1/10 oz gold panda PCGS MS 69  $255.02 auction.
1985 1/2 oz gold panda NCS NGC MS 69  $1091.60 auction.
1986 1/2 oz gold panda NCS NGC MS 69  $1061.60 auction.
1991 1 oz gold panda NGC MS 69  $1999 auction.
1996 1 oz gold small date panda PCGS MS 69  $3151 auction.
1989 1 oz silver New York expo panda NGC PF 69 UC  $768.88 auction.
2011 1 oz silver Xi'an horticultural expo panda NGC MS 69  $274.88 Buy-It-Now.
1990 P 1/2 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC  $1279 offer.
1989 P 1/4 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC  $585 offer.
1987 P 1/4 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC  $585 offer.
1987 P 1/2 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC  $1120 offer.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Jul 23, 10:51:01 am »

Chinese coins are better





* Fidelity Overseas Fund (FOSFX)
* NASDAQ Average
* Brazilian Stock Index (BVSP)
* Crude Oil
* Gold
* Silver
* Chinese coins

This information comes from http://www.pandacollector.com/
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Jul 23, 10:51:08 am »

Sell your coins on LBC or CCF forums



The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

There's also a similar place at the CCF

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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Jul 23, 10:51:14 am »

Register, read replies, get NOTIFICATIONS, access drafts



Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click the "NOTIFY" button on this article to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes or seconds before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

Also, once you're registered on the forums, you can access the drafts forum where I post stuff I'm working on. Having access to my drafts lets you see the good stuff before anybody else - sometimes only minutes before, and sometimes more than a week before! You'll have valuable advanced information before the rest of the market gets it! Of course, you MUST click on the "NOTIFY" button for the drafts forum if you want to receive an instant notification that a draft has been posted.

Hint: Once you see the first draft, click the "NOTIFY" button for the draft. When my draft is almost ready for publishing, I break up the post into replies that follow the first post of the draft. You'll get a notification that a reply has been posted, and that will tell you the draft is almost done. A near-finished draft with the replies will contain more, better info than the first draft notification, so that's the good info you want to see.

Finally, you'll want to stay up-to-date on my postings, so click the "NOTIFY" button on my blog forum. You may want to take a look there from time to time, especially to read my older postings that are packed with valuable money-making information. If you're wondering if I'm worth listening to, you can see a list of my articles sorted by date. Check out the older ones to see my track record at predicting the markets. It's impressive, if I do say so myself. No one on the planet as a track record like mine. You can trust my predictions, they're always right!
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Jul 23, 10:51:21 am »

NCS and NGC need to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment



I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Jul 23, 10:51:27 am »

NCS conserved certificates?



What if NCS started selling certificates that said that a coin had been conserved? Would you want one for each of your coins, so you could prove to a buyer that your coins are professionally conserved? It's been impossible so far to persuade NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins. But, they may be willing to produce certificates, especially if it earns them a little extra money.

Prices earned by sellers have been significantly better for the coins they advertise as NCS conserved. When buyers have a choice between 2 coins, one that's cheaper, but not NCS conserved, and one that's significantly more expensive, but has been NCS conserved, the buyers almost always choose the NCS coins first. Once those are gone, then the unconserved coins start selling again.

Many of the sellers are able to provide paperwork to show that a coin has been conserved, and the seller's reputation leads to buyers trusting sellers when they say the coins are conserved. But what about the buyer when it comes time to sell? It would be very helpful if they had a certificate from NCS that says for certain that a coin has been conserved. It would add value to the coins when they initially sell from a dealer, and it will also make it easier for the buyer to sell later too.

Further down in this article is Craig Fiumara's contact information at NCS. It would be helpful to make this possibility a reality if you told him you'd like to buy conservation certificates for your coins.
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Jul 23, 10:51:34 am »

Recommended reading



Here's some recent articles of mine that can provide some guidance for investing in the current and coming market conditions:

* LBC makes me rich
* Wealth preservation: USA vs. China (By Zerosum)
* Coins are the hot new investment
* How high will the Chinese coin market go?
* 5 criteria to determine if a coin is a good investment
* 13 coin facts to learn for beginning investors of modern Chinese coins
* For those new to the modern Chinese coin market (By Batman)
* My First Chinese Panda Coin Purchase (By Tamo42)
* Modern Chinese coin investment strategy
* Black Swans, Fake Chinese coins, badon, & ebay! (By r3globe)
* Don't be the "whale" that pays too much for an investment coin
* Modern Chinese coin commentary and market predictions - 2010-Dec-15
* What makes people buy up all the Chinese panda coins?
* Investing in rare modern Chinese coins, some questions answered
* Cash is king for 2011 - Get ready for the coming bargain hunt
* Foresight: Gold, silver, coins, etc will weaken after January or February 2011
* Rumor: Modern Chinese coin charts coming out soon
* Why does this business site talk so much about investments?
* The chess game of rich vs. poor
* Why You Should Collect (or Invest) in Gold Panda Fractional BUs (By Batman)

Here's some handy websites for basic coin facts like mintages:

* Modern China Coins Data sorted by series
* china-mint.info Data sorted by year
* china-mint.info silver actual mintages
* china-mint.info gold actual mintages
* Chinese Coin Forum
* The Coin Compendium is coming!

Gold and Silver Panda Coin Buyer's Guide Book   This is THE panda book, written by the world's foremost expert on Chinese panda coins. Buy the book before the coin. Enough said.
Pricepedia modern Chinese coin price guide with bonus using "LBC" referral code   $68.88 Buy-It-Now.
In addition to the book you can subscribe to the PricePedia, which gives up-to-date monthly pricing information on over 700 different coins, as well as a few pointers on what's hot or undervalued in the market. If you send a message to the author mentioning LBC for the referral code, you get a bonus list of undervalued coins, along with your subscription.
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