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tamo42
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« on: 2011 Jun 20, 04:10:04 PM » |
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In badon's recommendation lists there has been a bit of discussion as to which coins among a list are the best buys. This little post is my take on the subject.
To my eyes, there are essentially 3 factors in numismatics: mintage rarity, grade rarity, and popularity. The lower the first two and the higher the third, the more numismatic premium there is. A coin that is undervalued is one where the rarities are there, but the popularity is not. As a coin gains in popularity, it becomes less and less undervalued.
The modern Chinese coin market as a whole is experiencing a rise in popularity, both domestically within China and abroad. However, I think badon is correct in saying that the market has a long ways to go to reach a mature, low/population growth stage. In essence, everything is undervalued to some degree or another. As a result, I don't worry too much about current popularity. Coins that are out of favor will eventually be picked up.
So that leaves the first two factors, mintage rarity and grade rarity. My system is simple:
Mintage*Grade rarity < Cutoff Number
Everything that satisfies that inequality is a keeper. Everything else I sell to other collectors.
Grade rarity is the ratio of the population of coins with the same grade or higher to the population of all graded coins. So if a coin has a graded population that looks like this: 65 - 4, 66 - 30, 67 - 100, 68 - 478, 69 - 289, 70 - 3 for a total of 904, then the grade rarity of a 70 is 3/904; the grade rarity of a 69 is 292/904; the grade rarity of a 68 is 770/904; and so on.
What your cutoff number is will depend on how much money you're willing and able to put into coins. Basically, the lower the better, but it will vary as your collection improves and what metal you are collecting. A gold coin of mintage 15,000 is very different in cost than a silver coin of mintage 15,000.
The reason I like this method is that it allows me to take into account the population of coins that are, for example, 68 or better whereas just looking at the mintage alone still includes all the lesser coins. It's not a perfect method as the graded populations are skewed towards the high end by submission bias, but it works for me!
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Neal McSpadden
Honest Silver and Gold, LP - Earn 3% a Month By Turning Silver and Gold into Cash Flow
The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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badon
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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Jun 20, 08:59:15 PM » |
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Which coin is best? The answer to that question depends on the answer to the question of "What is best in life?", which everyone knows is "To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women."
The God of War & Wealth of course.
What other coin shows a big mean looking guy waving a sword around, stomping on a tiger, AND toting a big pile of gold? The only thing that's missing are the lamenting women :)
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tamo42
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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Jun 20, 09:19:11 PM » |
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Hah, well I'm not aware of any PRoC coins that have Genghis on them, but Kublai is 2nd best.
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Neal McSpadden
Honest Silver and Gold, LP - Earn 3% a Month By Turning Silver and Gold into Cash Flow
The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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badon
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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Jun 20, 09:32:28 PM » |
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Genghis is on the 1989 1/3 oz gold Chinese historical figures coin.
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tamo42
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Jun 21, 04:36:23 AM » |
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Well then, there you go. "No. To crush your enemies, and see them fall at your feet - to take their horses and belongings, and to hear the lamentation of their women. That is the best life." Yeah, you thought that came from Conan the Barbarian, didn't you? Well Ghengis said it first. The screenwriters thought it was so badass, they borrowed it, and Cracked starts every weekday by having every employee chant this in unison.
Read more: The 5 Pimpingest Historical Figures | Cracked.com http://www.cracked.com/article_15706_the-5-pimpingest-historical-figures.html#ixzz1PuD60pYq |
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Neal McSpadden
Honest Silver and Gold, LP - Earn 3% a Month By Turning Silver and Gold into Cash Flow
The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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dobedo
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Jun 21, 05:55:09 AM » |
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And all this time I thought only MS/PF/PR-70 coins were the best!?
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r3globe
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Jun 21, 07:22:03 AM » |
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This topic took an interesting turn lol Here is Ramses MS 63! Look up NGC # 2455832-001.
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tamo42
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Jun 21, 08:15:39 AM » |
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Ramses is anywhere near as cool as genghis. He didn't kill nearly as many people, and thats how we judge leaders.
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Neal McSpadden
Honest Silver and Gold, LP - Earn 3% a Month By Turning Silver and Gold into Cash Flow
The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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dobedo
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Jun 21, 11:13:13 AM » |
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Ramses is anywhere near as cool as genghis. He didn't kill nearly as many people, and thats how we judge leaders.
In that case, buy up the Mao coins. Directly or indirectly, he killed most people. |
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tamo42
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Jun 21, 11:20:58 AM » |
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A good point!
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Neal McSpadden
Honest Silver and Gold, LP - Earn 3% a Month By Turning Silver and Gold into Cash Flow
The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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