Live Business Chat
2015 Sep 10, 12:52:02 am *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?

Login with username, password and session length
News: This is a friendly non-profit discussion group about making money. Click the "NOTIFY" button every chance you get to receive instant alerts about new information. We don't like spam. If your first posts are about something you want from us, it is probably spam, and you will be banned in forums worldwide. No soliciting! If you have problems with the forum, contact badon in the business chat.
 
   Home   Help Search Calendar Login Register  
Pages: [1] 2  All   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Black Swans, Fake Chinese coins, badon, & ebay!  (Read 3980 times)
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
r3globe
Mogul
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 436


« on: 2011 Jun 04, 05:37:36 pm »

You might be wondering how the topic words relate to each other! Well,a buying experience I just went through hopefully will connect the dots for you.
I have been buying modern Chinese coins as an investment for the past 4 months. Finding LBC and badon’s articles were very instrumental in getting me into that market. Looking at the value of my purchases rise has been a very rewarding experience. When I first started reading badon’s advice, I was not sure why he was so particular about buying graded coins (mostly NGC) on eBay. Well, it all made sense with the $3000 I was about to lose buying a fake chinese coin set.

Late April I bought a 1984 Pagoda set for around $3000 on ebay. I shared my buying experience with badon, and I am so happy I did. For all I knew, the set looked authentic ,and I was excited about owning such a set with an ultra low mintage of 260!! Well, it turns out that purchase was the black swan event of my buying. Losing $3000 buying a fake set is a big blow to any coin buyer. But, badon & ebay’s 45-day buyer protection guarantee came through. 

Badon learned of new information about the seller and the pagoda sets ,and he alerted me to the good possibility that the 1984 pagoda set I purchased was fake! Well, after a back and forth with badon and the seller, the seller did not acknowledge that the sets were fake.However,he silently refunded my money after I returned the set. He most likely did that because of ebay’s buyer protection guarantee. Badon believes that the Seller was duped himself and did not know he was selling fakes. From my experience with the seller, I have no reason to doubt that.

So the moral of the story is that badon came through with his advice & expertise and I thank him. Unless you have a good amount of expertise in buying modern Chinese coins, it is best to stick to buying graded coins (by NGC or PCGS) on ebay! You will have the double protection of the reputable grading companies AND ebay’s buyer protection; oh, and having badon on your side can make your buying experience black-swan proof Smiley
Logged
badon
Administrator
Capitalist Pig
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 10294


badon™


« Reply #1 on: 2011 Jun 04, 05:51:12 pm »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

Here's an article by Tamo42 about black swans:

http://www.livebusinesschat.com/smf/index.php?topic=3401.0

Although we at LBC probably come across as foolishly confident, we are not fools. We know bad things can happen, and that's why I push so hard about only buying graded and authenticated coins on Ebay. Ebay is the key part - even though it costs more to do business on Ebay, you only need one black swan like r3globe experienced in order to wipe out years of saving money by skipping ebay, or buying ungraded coins.

Both are doable, but you have to understand that it's only a matter of time before you get stung with a big loss. If you plan for it, then take your risks and save some money. It sounds easy, but it's not. That's why the only people who do that regularly are dealers. It's so much work, you have to make it your profession (at least part time) in order to justify dealing with all the detailed problems.

If you're like me, and you just want to have a good time buying coins, even if you're savvy enough to deal with the problems, then you just buy good quality NGC coins on ebay. It's 95% trouble-free, and when a problem does come up, it's simple to deal with.

Thanks for sharing this experience r3globe. It's a lesson that almost cost a lot of money, but didn't. We can all learn from it, just the same. From me, to you, and now to the thousands of people that read this site.

Thank you.
Logged

If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
FreeArc is amazing.
User contributions for Badon - Coin Compendium
dobedo
Mogul
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 440


« Reply #2 on: 2011 Jun 04, 09:57:33 pm »

Thanks for sharing your story, r3globe. And thank you badon, for spreading your knowledge. Now, if I can only tell a fake NGC or PCGS holder from the real ones, then I'd feel better.
Logged
badon
Administrator
Capitalist Pig
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 10294


badon™


« Reply #3 on: 2011 Jun 04, 09:59:17 pm »

The best way is to look it up on NGC's website. You can look up the coin by the serial number, and you'll see the genuine holder there to compare to.
Logged

If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
FreeArc is amazing.
User contributions for Badon - Coin Compendium
tamo42
Capitalist Pig
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 17830



WWW
« Reply #4 on: 2011 Jun 05, 11:05:33 am »

I'm glad the eBay/PayPal insurance held up.
Logged

Neal McSpadden
Get Coin Investments List Updates Here
The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
r3globe
Mogul
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 436


« Reply #5 on: 2011 Jun 05, 11:10:01 am »

Thanks for sharing your story, r3globe. And thank you badon, for spreading your knowledge. Now, if I can only tell a fake NGC or PCGS holder from the real ones, then I'd feel better.

Now, the whole fake NGC/PCGS slabs issue is news to me. I am aware of the possibility but I have never seen one (I hope). Maybe I am in denial, but I would like to learn more about it (if there is more to learn). What are the chances of someone putting a "good" fake in a "good" PCGS/NGC slab? How authentic looking are the fake slabs???
Logged
badon
Administrator
Capitalist Pig
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 10294


badon™


« Reply #6 on: 2011 Jun 05, 11:20:03 am »

The fake slabs are distinguishable. They always get something wrong on them. The best way to verify is to check the NGC certification lookup site:

http://www.ngccoin.com/certlookup/index.aspx

You can examine every detail of both the coin and the slab there. The Coin Compendium will hopefully do an even better job of it, with better photos, and a chain of ownership record. It'll be very hard to get fakes into the system without somebody noticing.
Logged

If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
FreeArc is amazing.
User contributions for Badon - Coin Compendium
dobedo
Mogul
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 440


« Reply #7 on: 2011 Jun 05, 06:11:39 pm »

The CCF recently had an extensive discussion on fake slabs as well. And hopefully The Coin Compendium will come out soon enough.
Logged
badon
Administrator
Capitalist Pig
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 10294


badon™


« Reply #8 on: 2011 Jun 10, 02:22:24 am »

NGC does a good job of protecting buyers from fake NGC slabs. They wrote up an article showing you genuine and fake slabs for comparison, and it's got plenty of photos:

http://www.ngccoin.com/news/viewarticle.aspx?IDArticle=954

PCGS didn't do so well. Their article has no photos, and their slabs are much easier to counterfeit:

http://www.pcgs.com/articles/article_view.chtml?artid=5286&universeid=313

Their solution:

"PCGS has called for eBay to stop accepting listings of any rare coins from Chinese sellers...PCGS urges consumers not to purchase rare coins from Chinese sellers on eBay."

So, in PCGS's view, the solution is to brand all of China as the enemy. Genius.

And:

"Sufficient differences exist between genuine and counterfeit holders such that PCGS experts can easily identify fake holders."

Well, that's fine for the experts at PCGS, but what about us, their customers? We're not good enough for a few example photos?

I prefer NGC...
Logged

If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
FreeArc is amazing.
User contributions for Badon - Coin Compendium
r3globe
Mogul
****
Offline Offline

Posts: 436


« Reply #9 on: 2011 Jun 10, 07:27:57 am »

great info. thanks.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  All   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.18 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.197 seconds with 17 queries.