tamo42
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« on: 2011 Apr 22, 10:12:25 am » |
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If you've been in the Chinese numismatic scene for any length of time, you know that there is a frustrating lack of information in many cases. One of the keys to a coin's value is how much supply there is. In other words, it's very important to know the mintage of a particular to coin to determine its value. On the list of 1 ounce silver pandas, there are many entries labeled "N/A" or "unknown." Last night, I had an epiphany that this information could be reconstructed based on the market dynamics. So, being the math nerd that I am, I started collecting information. Through a couple different analyses, I created this chart: Year | Official Mintage | Calculated Mintage | Likely Mintage | 1989 | 255,000 | - | - | 1990 | 200,000 | - | - | 1991 | Unknown | 198,960 | 200,000 | 1992 | Unknown | 190,190 | 200,000 | 1993 | Unknown | 142,915 | 150,000 | 1994 | Unknown | 166,910 | 175,000 | 1995 | Unknown | 248,770 | 250,000 | 1996 | Unknown | 229,043 | 225,000 | 1997 | Unknown | 230,740 | 225,000 | 1998 | 250,000 | - | - | 1999 | Unknown | 303,595 | 300,000 | 2000 | Unknown | 511,959 | 500,000 | 2001 | 500,000 | - | - | 2002 | 500,000 | - | - | 2003 | 600,000 | - | - | 2004 | 600,000 | - | - | 2005 | 600,000 | - | - | 2006 | 600,000 | - | - | 2007 | 600,000 | - | - | 2008 | 600,000 | - | - | 2009 | 600,000 | - | - |
A couple things to note. The likely mintage figures are best guesses knowing the fact that the market for coins isn't perfectly efficient. That means the price discrepancies (someone got a good deal or paid a bit too much) alters the calculations a bit. So I rounded to what I thought made the most sense for each case. The other item of note is that these are total mintage figures for all varieties in each year.
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Neal McSpadden Get Coin Investments List Updates Here The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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Pandora
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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Apr 22, 10:19:27 am » |
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This is the mintage table I got from one of the posts on CCF:
Silver Panda:
2010- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 800,000 2009- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 300,000 (30th anniversary) 2009- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000 2008- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000 2007- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000 2006- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000 2005- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000 2004- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000 2003- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000 2002- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 500,000 2001- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 500,000 2000- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 500,000 1999- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- unkown 1998- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 250,000 1997- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 250,000 1996- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 250,000 1995- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 250,000 1994- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 120,000 1993- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 120,000 1992- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 100,000 1991- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 100,000 1990- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 200,000 1989- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 255,000
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Thy shall spend any thing and every thing on Chinese coins, but thy shall never surrender beer...swear! swear!
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Joe Public
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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Apr 22, 10:20:59 am » |
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Those figures make the official figure for 1998 look quite high
Cheers
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tamo42
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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Apr 22, 10:37:18 am » |
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Pandora, do those figures claim to be from a mint/government source? The figures I calculated come from transactions, so they are really an inference drawn as to what a likely mintage figure would be.
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Neal McSpadden Get Coin Investments List Updates Here The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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tamo42
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Apr 22, 10:37:45 am » |
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Those figures make the official figure for 1998 look quite high
Cheers
Which figures are you referring to? Mine or the ones Pandora posted?
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Neal McSpadden Get Coin Investments List Updates Here The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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dobedo
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Apr 22, 11:01:23 am » |
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Based on the law of large numbers, I'd say your numbers are largely interesting.
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Pandora
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Apr 22, 11:10:34 am » |
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Pandora, do those figures claim to be from a mint/government source? The figures I calculated come from transactions, so they are really an inference drawn as to what a likely mintage figure would be.
The post did not cite any reference....here is the link to the CCF post: 1 oz Silver Panda BU Mintage on CCF
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Thy shall spend any thing and every thing on Chinese coins, but thy shall never surrender beer...swear! swear!
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tamo42
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Apr 22, 11:21:48 am » |
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That's interesting. I wonder where he got those figures.
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Neal McSpadden Get Coin Investments List Updates Here The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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Joe Public
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Apr 22, 11:29:44 am » |
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Both really. I guess i always thought the 98 figure looked wrong. Your numbers still make it look wrong. it would be really interesting to see what you would get if you worked 98 out like you have for the others Cheers Which figures are you referring to? Mine or the ones Pandora posted?
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tamo42
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Apr 22, 12:32:00 pm » |
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Applying the calculations to the 1998 sales comes out with a mintage of 218,065. I'd say that's in the ballpark of the stated 250,000 mintage.
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Neal McSpadden Get Coin Investments List Updates Here The Primal Prepper - my blog about preparing for the worst while living the best
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