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Author Topic: Missing Silver Panda Mintage Figures  (Read 2742 times)
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tamo42
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« on: 2011 Apr 22, 10:12:25 am »

If you've been in the Chinese numismatic scene for any length of time, you know that there is a frustrating lack of information in many cases. One of the keys to a coin's value is how much supply there is. In other words, it's very important to know the mintage of a particular to coin to determine its value.

On the list of 1 ounce silver pandas, there are many entries labeled "N/A" or "unknown."

Last night, I had an epiphany that this information could be reconstructed based on the market dynamics. So, being the math nerd that I am, I started collecting information. Through a couple different analyses, I created this chart:

Year    Official Mintage  Calculated Mintage  Likely Mintage
1989255,000--
1990200,000--
1991Unknown198,960200,000
1992Unknown190,190200,000
1993Unknown142,915150,000
1994Unknown166,910175,000
1995Unknown248,770250,000
1996Unknown229,043225,000
1997Unknown230,740225,000
1998250,000--
1999Unknown303,595300,000
2000Unknown511,959500,000
2001500,000--
2002500,000--
2003600,000--
2004600,000--
2005600,000--
2006600,000--
2007600,000--
2008600,000--
2009600,000--

A couple things to note. The likely mintage figures are best guesses knowing the fact that the market for coins isn't perfectly efficient. That means the price discrepancies (someone got a good deal or paid a bit too much) alters the calculations a bit. So I rounded to what I thought made the most sense for each case. The other item of note is that these are total mintage figures for all varieties in each year.
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Neal McSpadden
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Pandora
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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Apr 22, 10:19:27 am »

This is the mintage table I got from one of the posts on CCF:

Silver Panda:

2010- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 800,000
2009- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 300,000 (30th anniversary)
2009- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000
2008- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000
2007- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000
2006- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000
2005- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000
2004- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000
2003- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 600,000
2002- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 500,000
2001- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 500,000
2000- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 500,000
1999- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- unkown
1998- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 250,000
1997- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 250,000
1996- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 250,000
1995- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 250,000
1994- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 120,000
1993- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 120,000
1992- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 100,000
1991- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 100,000
1990- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 200,000
1989- 1 ounce- 10 yuan- 255,000
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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Apr 22, 10:20:59 am »

Those figures make the official figure for 1998 look quite high

Cheers
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tamo42
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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Apr 22, 10:37:18 am »

Pandora, do those figures claim to be from a mint/government source? The figures I calculated come from transactions, so they are really an inference drawn as to what a likely mintage figure would be.
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Neal McSpadden
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tamo42
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Apr 22, 10:37:45 am »

Those figures make the official figure for 1998 look quite high

Cheers

Which figures are you referring to? Mine or the ones Pandora posted?
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Neal McSpadden
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dobedo
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Apr 22, 11:01:23 am »

Based on the law of large numbers, I'd say your numbers are largely interesting.
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Pandora
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Apr 22, 11:10:34 am »

Pandora, do those figures claim to be from a mint/government source? The figures I calculated come from transactions, so they are really an inference drawn as to what a likely mintage figure would be.

The post did not cite any reference....here is the link to the CCF post:

1 oz Silver Panda BU Mintage on CCF

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tamo42
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Apr 22, 11:21:48 am »

That's interesting. I wonder where he got those figures.
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Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Apr 22, 11:29:44 am »

Both really.

I guess i always thought the 98 figure looked wrong. Your numbers still make it look wrong.

it would be really interesting to see what you would get if you worked 98 out like you have for the others

Cheers

Which figures are you referring to? Mine or the ones Pandora posted?
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tamo42
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Apr 22, 12:32:00 pm »

Applying the calculations to the 1998 sales comes out with a mintage of 218,065. I'd say that's in the ballpark of the stated 250,000 mintage.
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Neal McSpadden
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