If you've been in the Chinese numismatic scene for any length of time, you know that there is a frustrating lack of information in many cases. One of the keys to a coin's value is how much supply there is. In other words, it's very important to know the mintage of a particular to coin to determine its value.

On the list of 1 ounce silver pandas, there are many entries labeled "N/A" or "unknown."

Last night, I had an epiphany that this information could be reconstructed based on the market dynamics. So, being the math nerd that I am, I started collecting information. Through a couple different analyses, I created this chart:

Year	Official Mintage	Calculated Mintage	Likely Mintage
1989	255,000	-	-
1990	200,000	-	-
1991	Unknown	198,960	200,000
1992	Unknown	190,190	200,000
1993	Unknown	142,915	150,000
1994	Unknown	166,910	175,000
1995	Unknown	248,770	250,000
1996	Unknown	229,043	225,000
1997	Unknown	230,740	225,000
1998	250,000	-	-
1999	Unknown	303,595	300,000
2000	Unknown	511,959	500,000
2001	500,000	-	-
2002	500,000	-	-
2003	600,000	-	-
2004	600,000	-	-
2005	600,000	-	-
2006	600,000	-	-
2007	600,000	-	-
2008	600,000	-	-
2009	600,000	-	-

A couple things to note. The likely mintage figures are best guesses knowing the fact that the market for coins isn't perfectly efficient. That means the price discrepancies (someone got a good deal or paid a bit too much) alters the calculations a bit. So I rounded to what I thought made the most sense for each case. The other item of note is that these are total mintage figures for all varieties in each year.

Those figures make the official figure for 1998 look quite high

Cheers

Which figures are you referring to? Mine or the ones Pandora posted?

The post did not cite any reference....here is the link to the CCF post:

1 oz Silver Panda BU Mintage on CCF

Both really.

I guess i always thought the 98 figure looked wrong. Your numbers still make it look wrong.

it would be really interesting to see what you would get if you worked 98 out like you have for the others

Cheers