Scroll WAY down to see the coin recommendations and skip the commentary!

Peter Anthony has announced that he will be authoring a new column about Chinese coins, in one of the largest numismatic publications:

"Chinese coins are going to gain a little more prominence in World Coin News from Krause Publications. Beginning in the May issue there will be a regular monthly column on collecting and valuing Pandas. Eventually the column may be expanded to cover other modern Chinese coins, as well."

The modern Chinese coin market is starting to gain popular appeal. This is good news for us all, and means we will see prices rising in the lead up to the first publication of the article in May, and continuing interest into the future as the modern Chinese coin market matures. This is an encouraging "buy" signal.

Ebay incentives will cause supply to increase soon

Normally, Ebay has been giving sellers free auction-style listings as long as the auction starting price was less than $1. Starting April 19th, the listings will be free for the sellers at any starting price. That will bring some expensive coins to the market that haven't been seen for a while, and it may have the effect of pushing prices higher. It could also make underpriced bargains harder to get, but that's already a continuing process in this market.

These auctions can have a Buy-It-Now option added to them for free too, so the sellers will still have plenty of Buy-It-Now items for those who want to grab coins fast, especially if the Buy-It-Now price hasn't kept up with price increases.

Spring & Summer supply slowdown (4S)

Given the crazy world events (America at war in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya...), precious metals have been very strong, and the coin market has been even stronger. It seems foolish to expect decreased prices when things slow down a bit during the warmer months of spring and summer. However, I'm sure supply will still be reduced somewhat, because even if prices won't quit rising, sellers can still stop selling for a while to take vacations.

You may have noticed that I took much longer to write this article. I was hoping that maybe by not writing a new article this week, I could kick off a slowdown, but no luck. It was an interesting experiment though. Instead of slowing, people are sending me messages asking when my next article will come out, and if I haven't written one yet because I'm too busy buying ("no comment", haha).

Still, I think it's wise for everyone to mentally prepare themselves for a routine seasonal slowdown, so you're not feeling anxious or panicky if prices actually find a way to go lower on some coins. This is not a time to hibernate and wait though, because while some coins are cooling off, inevitably some coins will be heating up (read about lunar dragons below). This is a good time to catch some bargains as both sellers and buyers sit on the sidelines. Remember, the sellers have to buy too, so if they're not selling, they're not buying either. The big price moves are always pushed by the sellers as they buy up coins to supply to their eager customers.

I suspect the Ebay promotions or incentives mentioned earlier are because Ebay expects a slowdown too - but for everything, not just coins, which is normal for the warmer season.

Lunars underpriced, the dragons are awakening

Last December, lunar coins hit some impressive record prices, with a few of the normally inexpensive silver ones selling at auction for around the $1000. Now, those same coins have cooled off and are occasionally selling way too cheaply. That means it's time to focus some investment money on lunars.

My first clue that the time is right for getting back into these was when I watched a 2000 2/3 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower lunar dragon UNGRADED sell at auction for $1245. Previously, the coin had been selling for around $500 - at least until the supply disappeared for a short time (that could be my fault, in case you're wonder what I've been buying, hint, hint). Then, buyers noticed that the steady supply of dragons stopped - they know this coin is very rare with a mintage of only 6800, and they're worried they may not see one for a while once they're gone, so they bid the next one that appeared to around double the last record price.

I think they're right to worry about the supply running out, because I suspect the current supply is coming from 2 sheets that were auctioned a few months ago. They sold VERY cheaply at auction, and some dealer out there is making some quick, easy money from them. That's only 20 coins...

There's a few other specimens that have appeared here and there from what I believe to be other sources, but it's those 2 sheets that have been drawing all the action. I strongly suspect that they are gone now, and the coins we're occasionally seeing on the market are just people's random coins that get sold from time to time. There's one in a 69 investment grade in this article, so it will be interesting to see what it sells for. Lately the norm has been that 69 coins sell for about double the price of the ungraded coins - that would put the one in this article at almost $2500!

Regardless of what it finally sells for though, I think lunars in general have been a victim of sector rotation, as people turned to pandas and other interesting coins while prices for the lunars were allowed to float as they will. With prices so high on some, and so low on others, I think it's only a matter of time before the momentum swings thoroughly in favor of lunars again.

Remember, next year is the year of the dragon. Dragon coins are already starting to heat up, and we still have 9 months to go! When 2012 arrives, dragons will be in one of the most exciting times they'll experience. That's good for you, but only if you start buying them up now while they're cheap, but just beginning to awaken.

The mythical modern Chinese coin market bubble

People have been saying the market is in a bubble since at least 2006, and probably earlier, back when you could buy a 1995 1 oz silver proof panda for around $50 to 100. Were they right? Hah, no way. Are the people talking about the market being in a bubble now right? No, sorry, they're still wrong, and I guess they'll remain wrong until they're right.

It all started with a discussion at the CCF about the Spring 2011 status of the Chinese coin market. It's interesting reading, if you care to have a look, but the basic gist of it is that some people are mistaking sector rotation for an overall decline in the market. Sector rotation is, for example, something like when pandas get really hot, and then do nothing for a while. If you're only invested in pandas, you may think the market is weak or in trouble. But, if you're properly diversified into other areas, you're probably still making money because some other area of the market is probably underpriced and getting active in perfect synchronization with the slowing in the last hot market area.

So, in other words, money isn't leaving the market when hot coins cool down - instead, it's just going to another part of the market.

Batman wrote a great several paragraphs on his opinion about all this in one of the comments for my lost article, and it's so well-written, I decided to publish it here:


People have been talking about the end of this market since it started. It isn't even mature yet, let alone ending. We have many, many years to go still. I am always entertained by talk of bubbles and things like that. Fiat is on the way out, precious metals on the way in, and numismatics are entering a heyday they've never seen before.

China dealer prices lower than worldwide ebay prices, coins moving West again

Ebay is an international site. Many of the top bidders on Ebay are Chinese, in addition to the usual mix of people from other parts of the world. However, Chinese dealers are mostly old-school traditionalists who haven't embraced online selling yet. Many of the buyers are the same kinds of people - middle aged, with tons of money, and not much interest in buying stuff online when they can buy in person.

But, the younger generation is making huge amounts of money by arbitraging the differences between the traditional Chinese coin shops, and the raging worldwide Ebay marketplace. Right now, the difference in price between an Ebay coin and a Chinese coin store coin can be hundreds or thousands of dollars. This is having the effect of pushing coins back out of China, towards the Ebay-savvy West. The coins will eventually get sent back to China again, of course, but only after passing through the hands of an ebay buyer.

This is mostly true for the lower priced coins, since the high priced coins are still being bought mostly by the wealthy Chinese people. That seems to be changing too, though, as even the high priced coins seem to be getting even higher prices by being sold on ebay, instead of in a private transaction.

For many of the rarest coins, if there's anything available at all throughout the entire world, there may be only one specimen on the market. If a seller sells directly to a single buyer, the buyer is probably the one getting the the best deal. If the coin is instead offered for sale on ebay, there may be many equally wealthy buyers competing for the opportunity to own a rare coin. That could push prices to unexpected heights that would have been laughed at if such a huge price had been suggested in a private transaction.

High grade coins concentrating in the West

The point Batman made above about higher grades being concentrated in the West is absolutely true. The higher prices in the West for some coins are no accident. While Chinese collectors are slowly trying to learn what Western collectors have been doing for 40 years now, all the low-grade coins are going back to China, while the high grades are being sucked out and sold to more sophisticated Western buyers.

This is a little secret I have been keeping to myself for quite a while now. Many of the prices people are using to guide their purchasing are prices for ungraded coins. Many of those ungraded coins are rejects that the savvy West has deemed unsuitable for grading. This is why it's so rare for me to tell someone that an investment grade coin is overpriced. If the raw, ungraded, and probably substandard coin is worth $2000, then a 69 coin ought to be worth substantially more.

This is the secret of making money in this market. Don't be afraid to overpay for top grade coins. They are disappearing from the market, and once that happens, prices will rise. Once Chinese collectors figure out what's going on, they're going to feel like idiots for putting their money into coins without any regard for their quality. I said they would "feel like idiots" not BE idiots - they'll figure this out soon enough, and when they do, the lid is going to get blown off the prices of the investment grade 69 and 70 coins.

Already, somebody in China has been beating me to many of the best 70 coins that I wanted for myself, and thought no one else would be brave enough to buy - so I waited too long! There's a few collectors that know better than to just buy whatever raw coin comes along (I'm sure some of them read my articles), and they've been buying up rare 70 coins as fast or faster than I have.

Pandas are hot

Congratulations to everyone who has been buying up pandas. I was criticized for continuing to recommend them so persistently, but now you can see for yourself that I was right to do that. The pandas have been largely ignored in favor of more culturally significant Chinese coins, but with the price of those going out of reach of most people, and then flattening for a few months, people turned to pandas. In fact, the entire world turned to pandas, both in the West and in China. But, LBC readers were buying them up months before everyone else.

There are few coins that are so distinctly Chinese as the Panda. It's China's answer to the world-famous American Eagle, and it's much more collectible due to it's impressive rarity compared to the American Eagles. Originally intended for export, Chinese collectors have mostly ignored them, but as the flagship product of the Chinese mint, they couldn't ignore them forever. In other words, they're not seen as foreign coins in China anymore - they're being embraced as fully-Chinese.

The funny thing about this is that Chinese people are second to the market for pandas. Usually, it's the Chinese market that leads the world's preferences in types of Chinese coins. But, this time, the rest of the world became so excited about the cheap and rare pandas, that they drove the prices upwards while the Chinese sellers were happy to export them.

Now, China's buyers are noticing the price increases, and they naturally want to be part of the action too - and of course, they're annoyed that it's pesky foreigners once again threatening their cultural and national pride - They seem to be screaming all at once "panda coins are CHINESE!", and now they plan to do something about it, which will make the current lucky owners a little wealthier than before.

The power of popularity

Michaelangelo began his art career by forging famous artworks. Steve Jobs of Apple (ipod, ipad, iphone, etc) began his technology career by forging technology to break into telephone systems. Zhang Da Qian (also spelled Chang Dai-Chien, Chang Ta-Chien, etc) made his career forging famous artworks, much like like Michaelangelo. This guy could forge anything, and he did it so well, that every collection in every museum that houses Chinese artwork is suspected to contain one of his forgeries.

So, he's a talented criminal, but that's only where the story begins. He fled China in 1948, before the current People's Republic of China (PRC) was formed, and he never returned.
He lived in California and Taiwan, and probably traveled other places, but never to the PRC. In fact, he joined the Kuomintang that was dedicated to fighting against Mao Zedong,
and the eventual formation of the PRC. So, he's a criminal AND a traitor that never lived in the PRC, and who would probably have been executed if he did.

But, this guy was an artist so talented and so famous (popular!), it didn't matter that he was a criminal AND a rebel traitor. The PRC is now trying to claim him as their own, even though he never lived in China under the rule of the PRC, and he would probably best be described as Taiwanese, since that was the location of his political affiliation and his final choice of a home. You've got to be somebody special to achieve that - that's the power of popularity.

Now, Zhang Da Qian is honored by the depiction of both himself and his artwork on the rectangular 1999 1 oz silver flower and 1999 1 oz silver bird issues of China's Modern Painting Master series of coins. The mintage for them is 10,000 and they're the kind of coins that get popular really fast once people realize how interesting they are.

The power of rarity - When unpopular becomes popular

Who cares about some unknown guy with a silly name like Button Gwinnett? People with a whole lot of money, that's who. Is he popular? Well, no, but just his signature alone is worth more than most people's entire lives. In fact, it's probably worth more than the signatures of George Washington, William Shakespeare, Amadeus Mozart, King Henry VIII, Amelia Earhart, Angelina Jolie, Neil Armstrong (the moon landing is no big achievement right?), and countless others.

Why?

Because of a strange phenomenon that happens when unpopular becomes popular. Button Gwinnett is more or less nobody. He failed in business, was removed from his military command, he was defeated by his political rival, and he also lost the duel that finally killed him. To further ensure Gwinnett's erasure from history, nobody bothered to keep track of where he was buried. If he's so obscure, why is his signature one of the most valuable in the world? Because it's the rarest!

Only about 52 specimens of his signature are known to have survived, and autograph collectors trying to assemble a set of every signer of the Declaration of independence must obtain one of his signatures to complete the set, so they're forced to pay incredible prices for them.

In the case of Button Gwinnett's signature, what it lacked in popularity, it gained in rarity. Now everybody knows who Button Gwinnett is, and that's really all there is to it.

There were 56 total signers of the Declaration of Independence, and only 3 of them are names that most people with a basic knowledge of American history would recognize (Benjamin Franklin, Thomas Jefferson, and John Hancock). Button Gwinnett's signature just happens to be the rarest out of many other unpopular signatures, and that's all it takes to make it by far the most valuable American signature.

Becoming rare is a good way to become valuable, and becoming valuable is a good way to become popular. That's how Button Gwinnett went from being nobody, to being the most famous signer of the Declaration of Independence - at least amongst people with money behind them, like historians and collectors of American historical artifacts.

So, what does this story about American autograph collecting mean for us, as collectors of modern Chinese coins? Well, it's simple: Buy rare coins, especially if they're unpopular. You know the kid everybody picked on at school? Yeah, the one that own half the town now...Very often it pays off to bet on the unpopular things.

Early in this market, popularity was everything because we had a long way to go, and a lot of coins to choose from. Investors did not want to put their money into coins that would do nothing for many years, so, you had to choose investments that had enough popularity to make them perform within a reasonable timeframe. Now, that's starting to not be true anymore - popularity is starting to become less important than rarity. We're not there yet, but I'm writing this for you now so you can position yourself for the next phase of this market, when rarity dominates.

Don't forget, there's several basic types of numismatic rarity:

* Mintage rarity - when a coin is produced in small numbers.
* Surviving population rarity - when a coin has had many of its specimens destroyed or damaged.
* Grade rarity - when high grade coins become difficult or impossible to obtain.
* Popularity rarity - When demand exceeds supply with buyers taking supply off the market.

Varieties are big money

NGC doesn't want to deal with Chinese coin varieties, but they fuss over every detail of American coins. For example, an ordinary 1964 american coin would be worth only a few dollars at most, but some of them have a slightly different matte finish. Those minor varieties are fussed over at length, and are worth more than $10,000 each.

Now is the time to buy rare Chinese coin varieties, while they're being ignored by practically everyone but LBC readers. Many of the varieties that have been discovered are more significant than their extremely valuable American counterparts. Every chance you get to own a new variety of a Chinese coin for the same price as regular coins is like winning the lottery. Someday they won't be ignored anymore, and you may discover that you own some of the most important and sought-after coins in the world.

This is my first official mention of the Coin Compendium: I'm working on a new site that will allow coin owners to document coins themselves. There's other sites out there like that, but I think I can do it better, so I will Once the Compendium is up and running, there won't be any need to beg NGC or PCGS to recognize coin newly discovered coin varieties. This will be good for everyone, including NGC and PCGS - it'll be easier for them to recognize coins if they're already thoroughly documented.

Coins vs. medals, circulating vs. non-circulating, legal tender vs. non-legal tender, fiat vs. precious metals

Circulating coinage made of precious metals is a remnant of the past, for now, but those times are coming back. All of the modern Chinese coins I've listed in my articles - pandas, lunars, etc - were produced for collectors, not for use as circulating money. Right now, rare circulating coins are more valuable to collectors relative to their mintage simply because they were "real" circulating coins, or special versions of circulating coins like proofs and patterns.

One of the reasons that I haven't recommended any collectible circulating coins in my articles is because I think that will change.

All of the circulating coins in existence in the world today are unbacked fiat currencies that are normally worth more than their metal value. When the world's unbacked fiat currencies collapse - "when", not "if" - then the collectible circulating coins will not have an advantage anymore over the non-circulating precious metals (gold, silver, etc) coins produced for collectors.

In fact, I think the entire situation will reverse itself, to give the precious metal coins the advantage over obsolete, devalued fiat coins. Since the non-circulating coins were produced in far smaller numbers than the circulating coins, I think they'll become much more valuable, especially if the collector values of the circulating coins drop.

When the fiat currencies become worthless, they'll be like all the other "broken bank notes" of paper money collecting, that have lost their legal value and their collector value. It won't matter if it's the only surviving specimen - it won't be nearly as interesting to collectors as other currencies that still have value.

This has happened before in ancient coins, so I'm not wildly speculating about this happening. There are many ancient coins that weren't made of precious metals, and they have no legal value anymore because they were made by governments that no longer exist. There are over 100,000 known types, and MANY of those have only one surviving specimen. With only 1 coin, you would think it would be particularly valuable, but it's not because it's part of a vast pile of many coins that are just as rare, and just as worthless, because they're not made of precious metals like gold or silver.

When the unbacked fiat currencies of the world become worthless, today's valuable circulating coins will be in trouble. They may not lose their value overnight, but they will definitely begin their decline, and eventually they'll be tossed into the worthless pile of other coins and currencies that have lost their value. It could take decades or centuries for that to happen though, so no need to panic if you own a rare and historically significant version of a circulating fiat coin. Just know that I haven't put any of MY money into them...

But, what you do need to think about is the fact that the future for collectible circulating coins is not going to be improving, like the future of the rare "bullion" pandas, lunars, medals, etc that are made of gold, silver, platinum, and palladium.

The coins made of precious metals will become even more valuable when the fiat currencies collapse, not less valuable like the rare circulating coins might. That's the trend, and even if it takes 100 years, wouldn't you rather be on the winning side of the trend? That's why I haven't bought ANY rare circulating coins, even though I would like to, from a collector point of view. From an investor point of view, I know that their future does not look as good as the future for the precious metal coins, so I avoid them.

So, what about medals that have no face value? As long as they're gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and even copper or bronze, they will do well. When the fiat currencies collapse, there will be nothing anymore that makes a medal without face value different from a panda that has face value. This means that price increases will probably be greatest amongst the medals, which is why I have shifted around half of my investments into the rare medals.

We've seen what medals can do. The Munich panda medals are among the most valuable, with some of them having reached the $80,000 level! That's serious money! The 1989 3.3 oz god of war & wealth is fast approaching the $2000 level, up from a pitiful $160 only a year ago. People with money know that the medals are undervalued, and that their status should be equal to the regular legal tender coins like pandas.

While they're in the process of equalizing, you're going to make a lot of money by investing in them.

1995 1 oz silver proof panda wide and thin rim varieties discovered

I've discovered 2 new varieties of the 1995 1 oz silver proof panda that I call the thin rim and wide rim types. This coin is already one of the rarest of the low mintage silver proof pandas, but with its mintage being divided amongst 2 significant varieties now, its rarity and price will likely increase proportionally. The more common variety seems to be the thin rim type.

These varieties are more significant than just rim variations. I call them wide rim and thin because that's the quickest and easiest way to identify them. However, there are many other differences between the specimens I'm comparing here. Firstly, the reason the wide rim type has a wider rim is partly because the die was pressed deeper into the coin. The die seems to have been designed with a slightly higher relief than the normal thin rim variety, which is why it required higher striking pressure to create. The deep strike of the die was unnecessary, even for the slightly higher relief of the coin, and would have needlessly worn out the die quicker than normal.

The specimen I have discovered is an early die state, with thick, fresh frosting. The die has many frosting problems where areas were frosted on the panda that were supposed to have a mirror finish. The panda's right ear, left shoulder, groin, and left leg all have a little too much frosting extending out into the wrong places. It appears to me that the die received at least 2 frosting treatments, possibly to try to correct some of the frosting errors. The left shoulder is the most apparent location of misapplied frosting, where the panda has sort of an extra "cape" or "collar" of frosting, and most interestingly, it is also an area that seems to have received only one of the 2 frosting treatment.

Being an early die state, with erroneous frosting, and problems with the higher relief and excessive striking pressure lead me to believe this die may have been the first die used in trial strikes to set up the minting presses for the full production run. After problems were noted, it's possible the die was removed from service and replaced with a corrected and improved die or set of dies to carry out the normal minting of the coins. Normally such coins are considered trial strikes or patterns, but more specimens need to be discovered to give more credibility to that hypothesis.

Just looking through ebay photos, it seems that there may be 2 types of wide rim coins: the kind with extra frosting in the wrong places, and another kind that doesn't have frosting errors. But, it's hard to tell from the photos to be sure. If that's true, then that would mean there's 3 varieties: thin rim, wide rim frosted collar, and wide rim mirror collar. Here's some photos below of the two coins I've examined. Please share your own coin photos if you find something interesting that can help sort these varieties.

1995 1 oz silver proof panda thin rim panda side


1995 1 oz silver proof panda wide rim panda side


1995 1 oz silver proof panda thin rim panda fur frosting


1995 1 oz silver proof panda wide rim panda fur frosting


1995 1 oz silver proof panda thin rim skinny "1 oz Ag .999"


1995 1 oz silver proof panda wide rim fat "1 oz Ag .999"


1995 1 oz silver proof panda thin rim temple side


1995 1 oz silver proof panda wide rim temple side


1995 1 oz silver proof panda thin rim temple top ball ornament thing


1995 1 oz silver proof panda wide rim temple top ball ornament thing


Sell your coins on LBC

The Chinese coin marketplace on LBC is a topic started by groovemachine for selling coins amongst LBC members. It's been around for a while now, and seems to be getting interesting, so I figured I would mention it here. Ebay is by far the best place to buy and sell coins, but sometimes it's interesting to see what's been posted over there.

Read the article replies

Always come back to check the replies on these articles. That's where most of the good stuff is! Register on the forums and click "notify" to receive email notifications of new replies that may make some easy money for the first person to read it. Many of the best coins only last for a few minutes before somebody grabs them. If you get notified of replies, you'll be able to see anything new that I list right when I list it. You'll also stay informed of the hot topics, and see what other people are talking about buying.

NCS and NGC refuse to help buyers find conserved coins for long term investment

I've talked a lot about NCS conservation of silver coins, especially the ones with the highest grades that were graded in the past. Coins that were not conserved before grading could degrade over time as invisible residues corrode their surfaces. That could make your investments virtually worthless!

There are nuances to which coins are worrisome, and which aren't, so I've recommended coins that look good despite not knowing whether they've been conserved or not. For example, an old silver coin that still looks good after many years is probably OK, and a newer panda that came from modern PVC-free packaging is probably OK too. But, the only way to know for sure is to only buy coins that have been conserved before grading.

Sadly, NCS and NGC continue to refuse to indicate on the holders if a coin has been conserved, even if requested. I have begged them to let me buy coins that I know will not become hunks of scrap metal over time, and they won't listen to me - just one person - but they will listen to the market as a whole. That means you. Everyone needs to contact NCS and tell them you want to buy coins that you know have been conserved. Tell them that you want to buy coins that NGC marks as conserved on their holders. Here's the person to contact:

Craig Fiumara
Numismatic Conservation Services
Operations Manager
Phone 866-627-2646  Ext. 145
Fax 941-360-2559
CraigF@NCScoin.com

Once we persuade them that we want to know that our coins are safe, they will obey our demands and start marking the conserved coins. Only then can we be reasonably certain (but never 100%) that our investments will not become worthless over time.

Recommended reading

Here's some recent articles of mine that can provide some guidance for investing in the current and coming market conditions:

* LBC makes me rich
* Wealth preservation: USA vs. China (By Zerosum)
* Coins are the hot new investment
* How high will the Chinese coin market go?
* 5 criteria to determine if a coin is a good investment
* 13 coin facts to learn for beginning investors of modern Chinese coins
* My First Chinese Panda Coin Purchase (By Tamo42)
* Modern Chinese coin investment strategy
* Don't be the "whale" that pays too much for an investment coin
* Modern Chinese coin commentary and market predictions - 2010-Dec-15
* What makes people buy up all the Chinese panda coins?
* Investing in rare modern Chinese coins, some questions answered
* Cash is king for 2011 - Get ready for the coming bargain hunt
* Foresight: Gold, silver, coins, etc will weaken after January or February 2011
* Rumor: Modern Chinese coin charts coming out soon
* Why does this business site talk so much about investments?
* The chess game of rich vs. poor

Gold and Silver Panda Coin Buyer's Guide Book

This is THE panda book, written by the world's foremost expert on Chinese panda coins. Buy the book before the coin. Enough said.

Pricepedia modern Chinese coin price guide with bonus using "LBC" referral code

$68.88 Buy-It-Now.

In addition to the book you can subscribe to the PricePedia, which gives up-to-date monthly pricing information on over 700 different coins, as well as a few pointers on what's hot or undervalued in the market. If you send a message to the author mentioning LBC for the referral code, you get a bonus list of undervalued coins, along with your subscription.

Be sure to read the market commentary at the bottom of the post that discusses the sales from the last article.

My choices
* 2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda in 70 grade.
* 2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 25 coin set in 69 grade.
* 2000 2/3 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower lunar dragon NGC PF 69 UC.
* Other lunar or dragon themed coins.
* 1995 1 oz silver proof pandas.
* Gold-gilded Beijing expo pandas because of their enormous popularity potential, low mintage, and relatively low - but rising fast - price.
* Unicorns, especially the NCS conserved ones, because they're not going to stop rising in value until people can't afford them anymore - that usually means $5000+
* Coins in a 70 grade. They're getting more action than usual lately, due to increasing popularity and decreasing supply.
* 1986 24 g silver empress of china clipper ship coins.



NCS conserved



Sellers who list coins with the words "NCS conserved" somewhere in their Ebay listing will show up here, regardless of grade. This is to enhance the value of both high and low grade coins that have been conserved, and can be advertised with the phrase "This coin has been conserved by NCS", or something similar.

NCS conserved coins

I routinely pay hundreds or even thousands of dollars EXTRA for a coin that comes from a dealer that I know always conserves his coins. If I pay thousands of dollars for a rare silver coin, it would be a tragedy if it developed the dreaded White Spots of Death later. I have never had a problem with any of my conserved silver coins.

If we're going to get NCS and NGC to start labeling conserved coins, we have to help dealers to earn a little extra money for them. This is a chicken-and-egg problem, where nobody labels NCS conserved coins because nobody is looking for them, and nobody is looking for them because nobody labels them. Now, sellers can tell us (on the honor system) which coins have been conserved.



70 grade coins



NEW 1986 24 g silver empress of china clipper ship NGC MS 70

$399 Buy-It-Now.

2002 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70

$588 Buy-It-Now.

2002 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70

$588 Buy-It-Now. 79 out of 476, or about 1 in 6, have earned a 70 grade.

2003 1 oz silver frosted panda NGC MS 70

$588 Buy-It-Now.

2003 1 oz silver frosted panda NGC MS 70

$588 Buy-It-Now. Last one sold at auction for $410, which is a very strong price. 209 out of 1099, or about 1 in 5, have earned a 70 grade.

2005 1 kilo silver panda NGC PF 70 UC

$17,995 Buy-It-Now, or best offer. The 2004 that's been in the list lately has an auction starting price of $7000, so I don't think the price this seller is asking is reasonable. But, the door is open to make an offer, so I decided to list this coin because of that. Otherwise, the price is high enough that I would not have listed it. 70 coins require the right buyer. A patient seller can hold out for any price they want when they own the only known specimen in a 70 grade. If you have to have the best of the best, maybe consider putting out an offer around $7000.

NEW 2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary 1991 proof panda NGC PF 70 UC

$0.99 auction starting price. Mintage 30,000. About 1 in 4 earn a 70 grade. This is one of my favorite investments. Lagging far behind the other proof pandas, and even the other anniversary pandas, this coin is likely to sell for a very cheap price. For example, the 2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary panda has a mintage of 300,000 and is not even a proof - but it sells for around $300 in a 70 grade! The record price for the 2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof pandas is only around $200, and they're at least 10 times rarer. I think it should be selling for around $300 to $400 right now. This is by far one of the best investments you can make, and it's cheap! However, they don't appear for sale very often in investment grade, and almost never in a 70 grade, so get this one if you can.

NEW 2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary panda NGC MS 70

$399.99 Buy-It-Now, or best offer.

NEW 2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary panda NGC MS 70

$0.99 auction starting price. Mintage 300,000.

NEW 2010 1 oz silver Shanghai mint 90th anniversary panda NGC MS 70

$3999.99 Buy-It-Now, or best offer. Mintage 20,000. RARE! Unusually low mintage for such a recent date, the coins are among the most difficult to find. Last I checked, these do not show up in NGC's database yet, which means they were very recently graded, even though they're from last year! It took THAT LONG for someone in the West to obtain them. This one is terribly overpriced at nearly $4000, so I'd make an offer well-under $2000 instead.



Proof pandas



All the early proof pandas are what I like to call $10,000 coins, because I firmly believe within the next decade, you will have to pay $10k+ to obtain one. Coins here meet at least 4 of the 5 criteria to determine if a coin is a good investment. The only one they may not meet is the one about conservation, which is less important as long as the coin looks good despite its age, and not very important at all for gold, platinum, and palladium. If any of the silver coins you buy have white spots when you receive them, you should probably return it for a refund.

NEW 1984 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$99 auction starting price.

NEW 1985 27 g silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

$1000 auction starting price.

NEW 1985 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1000 auction starting price.

NEW 1986 1 oz gold proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

$2398 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 10,000.

NEW 1987 1/4 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$475 auction starting price. Mintage 10,000.

NEW 1987 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1065 Buy-It-Now, $965 auction starting price.

1987 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1099 Buy-It-Now.

1987 5 oz silver panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1175 Buy-It-Now, or best offer.

1987 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1200 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 31,000. This is a very high price. The other coin recently on this list was priced at $650 Buy-It-Now, or best offer. I'll watch to see what sells and what doesn't, but I suspect these are on the move upwards.

NEW 1989 1/20 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$525 Buy-It-Now.

NEW 1989 1/10 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$200 auction starting price. Mintage 8000.

NEW 1989 1/2 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$800 auction starting price. Mintage 8000.

NEW 1989 1/2 oz gold proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

$1398 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 8000.

NEW 1990 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$450 Buy-It-Now, $399.99 auction starting price.

1991 1/20 oz gold proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

$499.95 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 3500.

1991 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$439 Buy-It-Now.

NEW 1992 1 oz silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

$988 Buy-It-Now.

The official mintage for the 1992 coins is 20,000 but is probably lower, as is often the case for early coins. Prices have been steadily increasing, and this one has sold for $278 and $399 for a 69 specimen, and up to a whopping $738 for a damaged, ungraded coin. The $738 price was ridiculous, but it's a clue as to how crazy people get sometimes. The damage on the $738 coin is a torch sloppily engraved into it by a private coin dealer in Germany when the coin was first released. 3000 of them were damaged by the torch engraving, and word hasn't quite made it to all the collectors in China that the torch isn't supposed to be there. The Chinese dealers seem to be making good money by not telling them too!

So, we know that 3000 of these coins were damaged right when they were released, and I suspect that the Chinese dealers may be getting greedy, and they could be carving their own little torches into the surviving coins to try to score a $700+ price tag on a damaged coin. That means that, in addition to probably having a lower mintage than the official figures suggest, we already know that at least 3000 coins have been damaged. That makes this coin a good investment, because it doesn't cost more than coins that weren't damaged on a large scale.

I would grab this coin before word spreads that the little torch coins are actually damaged coins, and pristine coins are much rarer than people have thought. Only 109 have been graded a 69, which is about half as many as expected - but the coin does not cost twice as much! This coin is underpriced, and a good investment. Buy them when you find them.

Update:

There were some discussions that led to questions about why the 1992 proof panda is cheaper than coins that should have higher mintages. Aside from the obvious possibility that the other coins actually have much lower mintages, there's other plausible explanations as well (no one knows for certain yet, but I think these are good guesses):

One explanation for the unnaturally cheaper price on the 1992 1 oz silver proof pandas could be that a lot of people paid big bucks for the torch version. Once they had that, they erroneously felt they had the key coin for that date, and so did not buy the normal, unaltered 1992 coin.

On top of that, once they read our research on this forum, and learned that the torch coin is actually a damaged coin, they may have developed a reflexive dislike for the 1992 coins after having lost a lot of money on the altered torch coins.

It still remains possible that the 1992 1 oz silver proof panda is actually rarer than coins that are currently selling for more, and that would make it a good investment that justifies its inclusion in my list.

Either way, until the truth is known for sure, it would be a good idea to make sure to have at least one of them in your collection/portfolio (in investment-grade, without the torch!).

NEW 1993 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$715 Buy-It-Now, $649.99 auction starting price.

1993 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$588 Buy-It-Now.

1993 1 oz silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

$988 Buy-It-Now.

NEW 1994 1/4 oz gold proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

$1898 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 2500.

NEW 1994 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1499.99 Buy-It-Now, $1299.99 auction starting price.

1994 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1699 Buy-It-Now. Key coin, very popular. Remember when people thought these were too expensive at $450, and everyone thought my $10,000 prediction was way too high?

NEW 1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1325 Buy-It-Now, $1199 auction starting price.

NEW 1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1388 Buy-It-Now.

NEW 1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$797 Buy-It-Now, or best offer. Here's 3 coins for sale at below market price. Get them before somebody else does, and don't waste time with best offers, just grab them.

NEW 1996 1 oz silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

$1025 Buy-It-Now.

NEW 1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$947 Buy-It-Now, or best offer.

NEW 1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$895 Buy-It-Now.

NEW 1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1250 Buy-It-Now.

1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1099 Buy-It-Now.

1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1150 Buy-It-Now.

2005 1 kilo silver panda NGC PF 69 UC

$4795 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 4000. Heavy coins get damaged easily, and 69 coins are difficult to find.

NEW 2007 1/4 oz silver 25th anniversary proof panda 25 coin set NGC PF 69 UC

$1299 auction starting price. Mintage 30,000. The auction starting price is about $52 per coin. I can't believe nobody has bid on this yet. These coins should be selling for around $200 each in a 69 grade. Being so expensive, I think it's likely someone with the cash to buy the whole set will be able to make some good money by selling these one at a time for as much as 4 times what they cost in the whole set.



Platinum and palladium pandas



NEW 1990 1/10 oz platinum panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

$0.99 auction starting price.

1990 1/10 oz platinum panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1000 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 4500. Listing says the actual mintage is 3651, but I can't confirm that. Remember when these were in my list around $700?

1990 1 oz platinum panda NGC PF 69 UC

$10,750 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 1300. The last one sold at auction for close to the asking price for this coin. It's been getting talked about quite a lot. Platinum is getting popular, it seems.

1993 1/10 oz platinum panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1999 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 2500.

2004 1/2 oz palladium panda NGC PF 69 UC

$995 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 8000. These have sold for much more in the past.

2004 1/2 oz palladium panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1195 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 8000.

]2005 1/2 oz palladium panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1395 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 8000.



BU pandas



1998 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69

$499 Buy-It-Now. Key coin, very popular.

NEW 2000 1 oz silver mirror panda NGC MS 69

$1995 auction starting price. Seller is honest, and has nice coins, but can be difficult to deal with.

NEW 2000 1 oz gold mirror panda NGC MS 69

$4000 auction starting price.

2001 D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69

$438 Buy-It-Now.

NEW 2002 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69

$199.99 Buy-It-Now.

NEW 2002 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69

$0.99 auction starting price.

Investment-grade 1/2 oz silver pandas

These are moving upwards, so I decided to include them again. The items in the list are from an automatically generated search, so they're not necessarily recommendations. You'll have to find and purchase coins yourself, but I'll be happy to answer questions about them. There's too many to list individually - the search thingy above that shows the items doesn't show everything, so click the link above it to see all items that the search can find for you.



Large date and small date pandas



Investment grade large date and small date pandas

Pricing information is very immature for panda varieties so here's a search, not necessarily a list of recommendations, that shows you what I might have put in this article if there were more information available. Pricing is erratic, with no one quite sure what a fair price should be, not even the sellers themselves. That usually means everything is selling too cheap. Good luck, and get them while you can.



Lunar coins



NEW 1990 1 oz gold lunar horse NGC PF 69 UC

$4300 auction starting price. Mintage 6000.

NEW 1994 2/3 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower lunar dog NGC PF 69 UC

$288.88 auction starting price. Mintage 6800.

NEW 1995 1 oz silver lunar pig NGC PF 69 UC

$299 auction starting price. Mintage 8000.

NEW 1999 2/3 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower lunar rabbit NCS NGC PF 69 UC

$750 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 6800. NCS conserved!

1999 1/2 oz gold scallop plum blossom flower lunar rabbit PCGS PR 69 DCAM

$4300 Buy-It-now. Mintage 2300.

NEW 2000 2/3 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower lunar dragon NGC PF 69 UC

$888.88 auction starting price. Mintage 6800. This is the key coin of the silver plum lunar series. It has sold UNGRADED recently for $1245. In a 69 investment grade, this coin normally sells for a little more than double its ungraded price. If the $1245 ungrade price holds (there are currently specimens being offered for a little under $1000), then an estimate for the value of this investment grade specimen is around $2000 to $2500. This coin has been steadily booming in price for several years, with every available specimen being slurped from the market by hungry buyers. This is the kind of coin that is always popular, and always a good investment.



Other investment grade coins



NEW 1984 22 g silver Chinese historical figures terracotta soldier kneeling NGC PF 69 UC

$499 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 19,301.

NEW 1984 22 g silver Chinese historical figures terracotta soldier right NGC PF 69 UC

$499 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 19,301.

NEW 1984 22 g silver Chinese historical figures terracotta soldier left NGC PF 69 UC

$499 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 19,301.

1986 24 g silver empress of china clipper ship NGC MS 69

$158 Buy-It-Now.

NEW 1986 24 g silver empress of china clipper ship NGC MS 69

$0.99 auction starting price.

Question:

"What's the significance of 1986 CHINA S5Y SHIP EMPRESS OF CHINA (22.2g, not 24g as advertised) at $100 to 150? Its mintage is 75,000 so it's not that rare. Is there a cultural significance to it or what?"

Answer:

A few things are confusing about this coin: The weight, the mintage, the quality of the mintage, and the surviving population.

The COA for the coin says it's 26.6 grams, for example, while other sources claim a variety of other weights. I haven't actually weighed any of them yet though.  The information you have about the mintage and weight comes from the Krause catalog, which is known to have numerous errors that the authors are too lazy to fix, for decades at a time, from edition to edition, including simple spelling errors that spellcheck could fix instantly.

Mintage figures I've seen range from around 50,000 to 90,000. Regardless of what the actual mintage is, it's still arguably quite low. I have long suspected that these are rarer than people think they are, especially in high grades.

However, those are all just details that all take a backseat to popularity. The coin is not popular yet, but I think it has merely been overlooked because it wasn't intended for the Chinese market - the ship on the coin is American. The ship theme of the coin is what will make it popular, once it gets noticed.

There are a lot of oddball coins that don't fit in any specific category very well, because they weren't part of any sort of series. Having a recognizable theme makes it possible for an oddball coin to fit into a set, and become popular for the set. For example, China's maritime set was minted for only one year, with a very low mintage. It has become popular due to its low price relative to its rarity, and that popularity has spread to other coins with a ship theme. Some collectors consider dragon boats, and other ship coins to be part of their maritime set.

The quantity of coins that are almost always available for the 1986 coin leads me to believe that the mintage probably isn't terribly low. I think the rarity lies in grade rarity, since the coins are so frequently in poor condition, due to the lack of respect they received for seeming to not be rare.

If we go with the highest mintage estimate I can think of off the top of my head, at 90,000, then I would consider it to be a low mintage coin. I am speculating on this coin, since so little is known for certain about it, with much conflicting information.

I would not be an aggressive buyer of these coins, due to the uncertainties, but I would take bargains from time to time when they come available. The asking price for the coin I listed is $168, but I would put in an offer of $100, and see if the seller will take that. If not, I might wait a while to see if anything else turns up, and then possibly try another offer.

Either way, I think this coin is a $200+ coin in the near future, due it's under 100,000 mintage. It is included in my list specifically for people who cannot afford rarer coins, but still want something better than a $70 panda with a mintage of 300,000 to 600,000.

NEW 1987 1988 1989 1/4 oz gold Chinese folk gods 5 coin set NGC PF 69 UC

$3499 auction starting price. Mintage 5000. This set is amazing, though it is missing some of the gods (there's a lot of them). All the market activity swirling around the 1989 3.3 oz silver god of war & wealth has spread to the other silver gods coins, and probably to these gold coins too. I still think the silver god of war coin is a better buy though, but these appear so rarely, I have to list it. It is definitely a good investment.

1988 1 oz gold san francisco expo dragon NGC PF 69 UC

$3999 Buy-It-Now, or best offer. Mintage 1500. This is a gorgeous medal with a low mintage and one of the most beautiful dragon designs made. I think the price is a bit high on this coin/medal but it deserves a mention here, since they could take off at any time. The most important thing about this coin that earns it a spot on my list is that it's a 69. Only half of them graded so far have been able to get a 69 (14 out of 28 total). They were frequently mishandled, and good quality, hand-selected specimens rarely earn an investment-quality grade. None have earned a 70. Oh, and it has the Chinese lucky number 8 twice in the date, which increases its desirability.

1989 1 oz silver New York Expo panda horse NGC PF 69 UC

$988.88 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 4000. Affectionately known as the "Kung-Fu Panda", due to the appearance of the panda doing a high-flying kick with bamboo weapons. Hiiii-YA!

NEW 1990 2 oz dragon & phoenix NGC PF 69 UC

$1995 auction starting price. Seller is honest, and has nice coins, but can be difficult to deal with.

NEW 1991 1/2 oz gold Munich expo panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

$3198 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 1500.

NEW 1991 2 oz silver 10th anniversary panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1200 Buy-It-Now, or best offer. Mintage 10,000.

1991 2 oz silver 10th anniversary panda NGC PF 69 UC

$1688 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 10,000. Very popular. It's actually a piedfort, not a "piefort", which is a misspelling that NGC has taken from the Krause catalogs. The Krause catalogs never get fixed, and it uses both the correct spelling, and the incorrect spelling, which confuses people.

NEW 1992 22 g silver invention & discovery compass NGC PF 69 UC

$179 auction starting price.

NEW 1993 22 g silver invention & discovery terracotta army NGC PF 69 UC

$129 auction starting price. Mintage 15,000. Most of these were damaged in Europe, so investment grade coins are very hard to find.

NEW 1993 1 oz silver proof peacock NGC PF 69 UC

$1450 Buy-It-Now.

1993 1 oz silver proof ancient paintings peacock NGC PF 69 UC

$1488 Buy-It-Now, or best offer. Mintage 7000.

NEW 1994 1 oz gold proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC

$1000 auction starting price. Mintage 857. RARE!

1994 1/4 oz gold proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC

$2199.99 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 5107. Unicorns have been very hot lately. The expensive prices on these small coins are reflecting their rarity and popularity.

1995 15 g silver invention & discovery fu, lu, shu PCGS PR 69 DCAM

$599.99 Buy-It-Now.

1996 1 oz silver proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC

$579 Buy-It-Now. Very popular, and prices are rising fast.

1996 1/4 oz gold proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC

$2399.99 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 2504.

NEW 1997 1 oz silver proof unicorn NGC PF 69 UC

$579 Buy-It-Now.

1999 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69

$499 Buy-It-Now. Will these EVER stop rising in value? Every time one of you crazy investors buys one of these, I have to list it AGAIN!!! (At a higher price!)

NEW 2002 1 kilo silver 20th anniversary panda NGC PF 69 UC

$9800 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 6000. Rarely seen.

2004, 2005, 2006 1 oz silver beijing coin expo panda 3 coin set NGC PF 69 UC

$850 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 30,000. These are highlighted with gold plating for the expos at China's capital city of Beijing, and are likely to be popular, and thus a good investment. I think they're underpriced right now due to the popularity factor. They're rare, but not rare compared to their price, which makes them seem expensive.

NEW 2005 1 oz silver Beijing expo panda NGC MS 69

$325 Buy-It-Now. Mintage 30,000. Popular because of the official gold plating, and prices are rising fast.

NEW 2010 1 oz silver Shanghai mint 90th anniversary panda NGC MS 69

$499.99 Buy-It-Now, or best offer. Mintage 20,000. RARE! Unusually low mintage for such a recent date, the coins are among the most difficult to find. Last I checked, these do not show up in NGC's database yet, which means they were very recently graded, even though they're from last year! It took THAT LONG for someone in the West to obtain them.



Helpful searches



These are helpful searches for coins, not necessarily a list of recommendations, like the other items in this article. If you didn't see anything you like above, you may find coins on your own here that I have ignored or overlooked. I've included an ebay search widget to show you a sample of search results, when possible (they don't always work, so I leave them out).

I'm not going to be able to keep track of when stuff in these searches sell, so you'll have to let me know if you invest in something from these automated searches, so I can include it in the list of other coins that have sold. It would also be appreciated if you posted your coins in the LBC makes me rich thread. Thank you very much!

Search for Chinese coins in 69 grade

Search for Chinese coins in 70 grade

Search for all Chinese coins

Search for proof pandas

Search for panda coins of all types




The items above are not necessarily a list of recommendations. In an effort to help out our small business members, any ebay seller listing that links to any page at www.livebusinesschat.com will show up in the list above (only a few at a time, sorted by time remaining). The name "Live Business Chat" must be somewhere in the auction, preferably as part of the displayed link. To make it easy, just put the following line anywhere in your ebay listing:

<a href="http://www.livebusinesschat.com/">Live Business Chat</a>

You can use that same line to link to us from any other website, also.

$2388 for a 1983 CHINA S5Y MARCO POLO, NGC PF 69 ULTRA CAMEO, RARE!! How rare is Mr. Polo? Wow. How $$ will Khan PF69 be???

it could be a typo ! $2388!!

thank you badon; i enjoyed reading this newsletter, but i have a feeling you have much more up your sleeve and you are pacing yourself lol

I can't believe it, as much as I've written already, and I'm still writing more. I just added another section to the draft that I'll update in a few minutes.