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Author Topic: Stock market warning: Day of Rage  (Read 1372 times)
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tamo42
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« on: 2011 Mar 10, 02:15:10 pm »

Just wanted to alert everyone that hasn't heard, the are protests planned for a "Day of Rage" in Saudi Arabia tomorrow. If people do in fact go out into the streets, oil will probably shoot through the roof which will probably translate to a big drop in the stock markets. So get your hedges in or maybe close at risk trades tonight.

I bought some spx puts today as a hedge myself. I also have vix calls.
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Neal McSpadden
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r3globe
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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Mar 10, 02:27:04 pm »

American Embassy in Saudi Arabia advised AMerican Expats to avoid any "large gatherings" tomorrow. My understanding is that Shia Saudis are some of the most "enraged" element in Saudi Society. Those Shia happen to concentrate in Eastern Saudi where there is a large oil infrastructure.
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tamo42
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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Mar 10, 02:32:40 pm »

Yep, the fear is that social problems in Saudi will lead to oil problems in Saudi, as they have in Libya. If Saudi oil production gets interrupted, or even if it looks like it *might* be interrupted, that will cause a huge supply shock.

On the other hand, if the called for protests don't materialize because people are rightfully afraid of being executed, oil will probably drop a fair bit. At this point it's a crap shoot whether enough people have had enough of the royals yet.
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Neal McSpadden
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badon
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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Mar 10, 09:24:54 pm »

I suspect it won't materialize. Saudi Arabia gives out tons of money to their citizens just for being citizens. I don't think people will want to get themselves killed over not getting enough free money. Saudis are notoriously lazy because all the free cash from oil that filters through the government, down to the people, is enough to live on without working a day in their lives.

Most of the day to day routine work gets done by imported laborers. They certainly have nothing to complain about - they make more money in Saudi Arabia than they can make in their home countries. And, as guests, they could easily be kicked out if they stirred up trouble.

Are the people threatening riots somehow excluded from the oil wealth?
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If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Mar 10, 10:50:08 pm »

From what I understand the people considering the protest are the poor and downtrodden. Yes, they have been getting handouts from the Sauds, but after a while, even a gilded cage can look like a cage. The Sauds have a reputation for being brutal and corrupt. Has it been enough to push people over the edge? We'll see.
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Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Mar 11, 01:24:31 am »

Attention:  The worlds biggest bond investor Bill Gross has just offloaded his Bunds!  Hedge yourself or bleed dry.  FYI Bill Gross is very well connected in the world of finance/fed/gov.  "BOSTON, March 10 (IFR) - PIMCO's Total Return Fund, the world's largest bond portfolio, unloaded all of its remaining U.S. Government-related holdings in February. The fund's Treasury holdings' recent peak was back in June 2010 at 63% to then steadily fall since to where they are now slashed to 0% from 12% ($28.6 bln) in February. Certainly a statement of first a vote of no confidence in the U.S. budget situation but also an indictment of the current artificial low interest environment.".  Hedge accordingly or suffer (not the regular LBC readers since we all know whats going on), Cheers =). 
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badon
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Mar 11, 08:39:26 am »

Lots of news coming out lately. You're right, regular LBC readers are ahead of it all, thanks to the articles and discussions here. Thanks for the heads up tamo42 and GhostRider808.
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If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
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tamo42
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Mar 12, 12:13:58 pm »

It turns out the Day of Rage was a bust. About 200 people showed up in some minor city, and the police just let them do their thing.

As expecting, the market rose on the lack of trouble.
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Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Mar 12, 12:22:19 pm »

But, were they really angry? Smiley
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If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
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r3globe
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Mar 12, 05:39:27 pm »

Don't expect much transparency coming out of saudi arabia. I don't trust mainstream media either. AlJazeera English reported that "The ban on public demonstrations comes amid media reports of a huge mobilisation of Saudi troops in Shia-dominated provinces in order to quell any possible uprising."

According to The Independent, a British newspaper, 10,000 security personnel are being sent to the region by road, clogging highways into Dammam and other cities.

So there was a HEAVY police presence + no free media to report the doings of the police= fizzled uprise

Saudi Arabia is a very tribal society. Effective mobilization will have to come from the tribal leaders and it will not be pretty. I think the unrest is not limited to economic issues and Shias. Saudis want the right to freely express themselves and have effective representation in the government.
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