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Author Topic: Are You Awake? Governments Being Toppled Left and Right  (Read 2897 times)
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tamo42
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« on: 2011 Jan 27, 12:57:57 pm »

This post is inspired by a conversation we were having in the chat today. I mentioned an article published today about when and where to move when trouble comes down the road by Gary North. I said he must be reading LBC since I had just published my article on the three strategies to deal with financial collapse. The20yr then rejoined in saying that lots of people are saying that.

It makes me wonder, are lots of people really aware of the larger issues at play in the world? Are people awake to the fragility of economic and political systems?

After all, at least 3 governments have been brought down in the past 2 weeks. Were you awake to these events or were you sleeping through them?

#1 Ireland. After the imposed austerity measures from the EU, the coalition government of Ireland has had mass resignations and has found itself unable to do anything. Elections are around the corner, so they are basically waiting until those to do anything.

#2 Tunisia. Rising prices and years of abuse and corruption have finally led to mass civil protests. The president, who had ruled the country for something like 20 years, fled with 3000 pounds of gold in his pocket. But remember, gold isn't money, so no biggie.

#3 Egypt. Enormous protests, similar to those in Tunisia, have led to police shooting civilians and the president's son fleeing to London. This situation is still in flux, so it may be premature to say the government has fallen, but it certainly is hanging by its fingernails.

There are also riots and protests going on all around the world. These are mostly in poor countries like Laos where the costs of food and other basics make up a huge portion of people's expenses. When the price of rice goes up 10%, it doesn't matter to the family in the US that spends 0.5% of its income on rice. It matters quite a bit to the Laotian factory worker who spends 50% of her income on rice.

So again the question is are you awake? We are living in the beginning stages of turbulent times. Your awareness of your surroundings (physically, economically, politically) can have large reprecussions on your life. At the same time, as the Chinese proverb tells us, in crisis there is great opportunity. I'd love to see all the readers of LBC come out of this period in history safe, healthy, and wealthy.
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Neal McSpadden
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tamo42
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« Reply #1 on: 2011 Jan 27, 01:14:50 pm »

Oh, I forgot to mention that the form of toppling will vary from culture to culture. In places that are relatively stable with governments that are at least viewed as representative of the people, you will get things like Ireland. Governing stops, but they'll try another election to sort it out. In places where there is no pretense of the government responding to the people, like Tunisia, you get riots and violence.
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Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #2 on: 2011 Jan 27, 01:43:29 pm »

So, to follow your survival strategy #1, my plan to move to any of those 3 countries just got busted. Which other ones are safer for me to move to, say next 5, 10, 20 and 40 years? Top 3 choices for each time period would be great.
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tamo42
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« Reply #3 on: 2011 Jan 27, 02:13:16 pm »

Hmm, an interesting question.

The places you want to move to should share a few characteristics:

Life in general is improving for its people
Governments are not going into massive, escalating debt to finance "operations". Being a creditor would be even better
Private property rights are at least mostly respected
The culture holds compatible ideals to what you believe

Obviously the last one is subjective and the rest of the criteria are only relative, so that will sway any choices you might have. For me, top contenders will include new Zealand, Switzerland, Singapore, maybe Australia, brazil, perhaps china

Of course, there are also language issues whereveer you might decide to go.

The timeline you propose is an important detail. I'd rate china as just ok right now, but in 30 years they will be ripe with money, a rapidly aging population thanks to their 1 child policy, and a culture of herbal medicine. That's right, you heard it here first, selling Viagra (and other health products) to Chinese men will be huge business in a couple decades.

On the shorter end of the time span, already developed countries like new zealand and Switzerland are great places to go.

So if we labeled the countries I listed as A - F, I'd rate them in time order as:

5 years - A C B
10 years - E A C
20 years - F E D
30 years - F E D
40 years - F E D

These are just my projections of how things will go. As you can see, over the longer time span the economies that have the resources and are putting them to smart use will come out on top. But keep in mind that in every place there are niches and pockets that can be very nice. I hear that places in northern Argentina are very nice and welcoming of foreign investment, once you get away from the cities.
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Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #4 on: 2011 Jan 27, 03:11:20 pm »

Thank you, tamo42. This is great for reference. Now I can plan my escape based on my projected future life span. F, E, or D for 20 or more years, if I plan to live that long. And if I move before 2030 to ACB or EAC, I may need to plan to move again later. This definitely gives me something to look forward to. BTW, if these choices change, do you mind updating them here? Thanks in advance.
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badon
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« Reply #5 on: 2011 Jan 27, 03:22:23 pm »

Wow, great info tamo42. It's a good starting point for a lot of people to figure out their long term plans. It's amazing your wrote this in just a few minutes.
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tamo42
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« Reply #6 on: 2011 Jan 27, 04:04:48 pm »

Sure, if my outlooks change, I'll be sure to update this list. But the principles will remain the same. In the near future, the best places will be friendly developed places. Longer term, the emerging economies that do in fact emerge to a higher standard of living will be the places to go.

Remember, 150 years ago, America was an emerging economy. We emerged, industrialized, grew, and now exhausting our wealth. History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. These cycles are seen over and over again.
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Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #7 on: 2011 Jan 28, 10:05:02 am »

A few updates. I just watched rioters/protesters push over a troop carrier vehicle and then set it on fire during the curfew that the Egyptian government has tried to impose. Egypt has cut off internet access for everyone in the country. Syria has followed suit and also cut off internet access. These moves are largely because of the huge connective power that twitter and facebook have been seen to have as the whole flash-mob principle has been applied to political movements.

Incidentally, this kind of internet kill switch has been proposed several times as a power that the President of the US should have. The reason given is always in case of cyber-attack from China, Russia, or wherever.
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Neal McSpadden
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tamo42
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« Reply #8 on: 2011 Jan 28, 10:08:48 am »

Oh, one more thing. If these revolutions in the Middle East end up being successful long term, expect the new government to be very unfriendly to the US. It's classic "blowback" against US support of repressive and unpopular (former) regimes.
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Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #9 on: 2011 Jan 31, 01:47:25 pm »

Tamo42,


Very well thought out article.  These are just some of the things I've been thinking about.  I already know I cant sustain a good business in America due to heavy regulation, high taxes, high medicare costs so as an American I feel Im forced to start a business elsewhere and i know its not good for Americas economy but the politicians are only there to line their own greedy pockets.  Anyhow, just wondering about,"But remember, gold isn't money, so no biggie. "  Just curious as to why you believe gold isnt real money.  There'e no right or wrong answer.  I just like to see and hear others people opinions in hopes that they see something i dont and that way we can all learn and grow rich together!  Cheers
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