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Author Topic: Recommended modern Chinese coin investments #22 - Panda varieties  (Read 1524 times)
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badon
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« on: 2010 Dec 29, 11:01:48 pm »



Gold proof pandas are still underpriced, which makes them excellent investments right now. Many of the best coins from the last article sold almost immediately after it was published, but there are still plenty that haven't been snapped up yet, especially the more expensive ones. Please don't hesitate to grab a coin you're interested in if you think it's a coin you want, because it may be gone within minutes or hours after this article goes live.

Even so, there isn't much left to choose from, so I'm expanding my searches to the BU panda varieties. That's basically what everyone is doing right now, and it's causing them to really increase in price, and disappear from the market. There are a few selling for almost as much as the proof counterparts, and it's becoming difficult to find anything priced like a "common" panda anymore. The funny thing is that a few of the BU panda varieties are now known to be as rare, or rarer, than the proof versions! That makes them a good investment. Not everyone knows about this yet, but soon, word will spread.

Most of the panda "varieties" aren't really varieties at all - they're intentional differences created specifically for the purpose of identifying the mint where the coin was made. Prices are very unstable for those coins right now, until collectors and investors begin trading them for what they are, instead of just bullion with a little numismatic value. In fact, nearly all the pandas that were once considered common, are actually quite rare.

Here's some recent articles of mine that can provide some guidance for investing in the current and coming market conditions:

* Wealth preservation: USA vs. China (By Zerosum)
* Coins are the hot new investment
* How high will the Chinese coin market go?
* 5 criteria to determine if a coin is a good investment
* 13 coin facts to learn for beginning investors of modern Chinese coins
* My First Chinese Panda Coin Purchase (By Tamo42)
* Modern Chinese coin investment strategy
* Don't be the "whale" that pays too much for an investment coin
* Modern Chinese coin commentary and market predictions - 2010-Dec-15
* What makes people buy up all the Chinese panda coins?
* Investing in rare modern Chinese coins, some questions answered
* Cash is king for 2011 - Get ready for the coming bargain hunt
* Foresight: Gold, silver, coins, etc will weaken after January or February 2011
* Rumor: Modern Chinese coin charts coming out soon
* Why does this business site talk so much about investments?
* The chess game of rich vs. poor

If you have questions about investing in any of these coins, please ask. If you find a coin that seems like it should be listed here, but isn't, please tell me about it. I frequently wait to list a coin here until I've had time to do the proper research on it that's needed for me to give you the basic facts on each coin. If you'd like to see info faster on a particular coin, I can make it a higher priority for you. I've noticed people don't like asking questions, because they don't want anyone else to know they're thinking of buying a particular coin. People don't want to talk about the coins they're interested in due to "coin snatchers" grabbing them. Competition for the investment-grade coins listed in these articles is fierce!

People are making a lot of money investing in the coins on these lists. You can see the coins that have sold here in the articles themselves, and you can see the coins making their buyers rich in the LBC makes me rich thread. It's exciting to find out who's buying the coins in these recommendation lists, and it's fun to share your successful buys!



Non-proof pandas



1990 1 oz silver small date panda NGC MS 69

Last one sold cheaply at auction for $267.99. Prior to that, they could be had for around $60. Prices are exploding.

1994 1/2 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69

Where have all the 1/2 oz silver pandas gone? They used to be plentiful, but they're getting difficult to find. I'm not sure why they're disappearing, but prices are rising because of it.

1996 1 oz silver small date panda NGC MS 69

1996 1 oz silver small date panda PCGS MS 69

This coin was graded by PCGS before the date varieties were recognized. This appears to be the small date variety.

1996 1 oz silver large date panda NGC MS 69

2001-D 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69

These have been increasing steadily above the $160+ range. These are reliable sellers, and slow, but steady investments. NGC is better for silver coins because their holders are more tightly sealed. PCGS silver coins tend to discolor over time, due to the poor sealing. Get the NGC one first if you can.

2007 1/25 oz gold 2004 15 yuan proof panda NGC PF 70 UC

This coin has a mintage of only 18,000 coins, and is being offered for a tiny $119 pricetag. People are paying more than that for 2010 pandas that have a mintage of 1.5 million! This coin is very underpriced, and is affordable by almost anyone. Compare the mintage of this coin with any of the silver coins in a 70 grade, and you'll see that this coin is comparatively a much better value investment. About 1 in 3 of these coins earn a 70 grade, with only 107 that have it so far. This is an easy, entry-level investment that even advanced investors would be interested in having. Grab it now!

2008 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

2010 pandas are the only date that always seem to be available at any time in a 70 grade. Older dates seem to have already been bought up. 2 of these 2008 coins have sold recently for increasing prices of $150 and $185. Naturally, this one is offered at a higher price.

2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary panda NGC MS 70

This coin has a mintage of only 300,000 compared to 1.5 million for 2010, and 3 million+ for 2011. In addition, dates prior to 2010 are much rarer in a 70 grade. This coin is priced at $175, which is only a little more than 2010 coin in a 70 grade, which normally sells between $110 and $145. This coin is underpriced in my opinion. It should be priced around $225, like the 2008 coins.

2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary panda NGC MS 69

Starting price is $0.99, but they usually sell for about $50 to $55. If you can get it for under $50, then you've got a good bargain. There were only 300,000 of these coins minted.

2009 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70

This coin is on auction in the wrong category, so it might sell cheap.

2009 1 oz gold panda NGC MS 70

Gold pandas in a 70 grade seem to be very underpriced compared to their silver counterparts. At a minimum, even a common date silver panda in a 70 grade will sell for 50% more than the same coin in a 69 grade. Recently, the premiums I have been seeing for all modern Chinese coins has increased from 50% to something more like 100% to 500%, depending on the coin, with rarer coins having higher premiums. Right now, the premium on these 2009 gold pandas offered for $1850 and $18 is only $300, which works out to about 20% of the total price of the coin, with 69 versions being offered and selling for around $1550.

If the bullion value is subtracted, then the figures become even more exaggerated. The 2010 silver pandas sell for about $60 in a 69 grade, with roughly $30 of that being the numismatic value. In 70 grade, they've been selling for about $120 lately, with about $90 of that being numismatic value. So, comparing apples to apples, and numismatic value to numismatic value, a 2010 silver panda in a 70 grade has about a 300% premium over coin with a 69 grade.

That means the 2009 coins listed here ought to be selling for far more money than they're being offered for, and that makes them a good investment. I feel this investment is more speculative, and dependent on the fickleness of the market, but as mundane an common as 2009 coins are, I think it presents a great opportunity to make high profits, with a little more risk than there is with the coins that I usually post, since we're entirely dependent on the market's demand for grade rarity,  which may or may not materialize. 2009 coins by themselves are not rare, so if nobody cares about the 70 grade, then the profits won't come. I think the risk is worth it, however, since I have been watching demand for 70 coins steadily and reliably increasing, as expected.

The mintage is 160,000 coins, with less than 1 in 3 coins receiving a 70 grade, and 200 total NGC coins graded MS 70. Since these coins are not rare, I would take profits on them once the premium reaches 100%, and put the earnings into rarer coins.

2010 1 oz silver pandas in MS 70

One of my readers has noticed that 69 graded 2010 coins have been moving up in value, while 70 graded 2010 coins have been dropping in value. The reason why is that both 69 and 70 coins are being put on the market at an increased pace by just one seller. 69 coins are easy to sell because they're reasonably cheap, and everyone would like to have one. 70 coins, on the other hand, require the right kind of discriminating buyer who appreciates the finest of everything. In other words, you can flood the market with 69's and the price will keep going up, but you can't do that with 70 coins that cost more than double the price of a 69, because most people will just take the 69 instead.

What that means is that, while 69 coins are increasing in value as expected, while 70 coins are dropping WHEN THEY SHOULDN'T, and that's a recipe for a good investment. Your strategy should be to buy up the 70 coins for bargain prices, and later take profits just one at a time to keep prices high. Anything you get for under $125 is a good buy, but you should be able to get one under $110.

Investment grade large date and small date pandas

I didn't have time to fill out this list completely with all of the large and small date varieties on the market, so here's a search, not necessarily a list of recommendations, that shows you what I might have put in this article if there were more information available. Pricing is erratic, with no one quite sure what a fair price should be, not even the sellers themselves. That usually means everything is selling too cheap. Good luck, and get them while you can.



Proof pandas



All the early proof pandas are what I like to call $10,000 coins, because I firmly believe within the next decade, you will have to pay $10k+ to obtain one. coins here meet at least 4 of the 5 criteria to determine if a coin is a good investment. The only one they may not meet is the one about conservation, which is less important as long as the coin looks good despite its age, and not very important at all for gold, platinum, and palladium.

If any of the silver coins you buy have white spots when you receive them, you should probably return it for a refund. The white spots may be correctable through conservation, but that's the seller's problem, not yours.

Now that the issue of which silver proof panda coin is the rarest seems to have been settled, the 1994 and the 1996 have increased rapidly in value. However, it turns out that all three of the top coins - the 1994, 1995, and the 1996 - have similarly small actual mintages. There's no one coin that is dramatically rarer than any of the others. The information I have says that all of them have mintages of around 7000 to 8000 coins. So, buy them all up whenever you can, as your cash holdings allow.

1986 5-coin gold proof panda set NGC PF 69 UC

1987 5-coin gold proof panda set NGC PF 69 UC

1988 5-coin gold proof panda set NGC PF 69 UC

1989 1 oz proof silver panda NGC PF 69 UC

1989 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

This is the most common of the proof silver pandas. I remember when I could buy these for around $15 to $25. They stayed valued at around $40 to $50 for a long time, and it's amazing to see them being offered at around $200 now. 2 of these have sold recently for $199, and prior to those two, this coin has sold for $250, and price guides value these at around that level too. I think $199 is a good price on this coin. They have a mintage of 25,000 and 214 known so far that are graded 69.

1989 1/4 oz gold proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

This coin has a mintage of only 8000, with probably fewer actually minted, and even less surviving in high grades. But, its offer price of only $598 is almost half as much as what silver proof pandas with similar mintages are selling for. This is clearly a good investment, with no doubt  whatsoever.  Grab it fast.

1989 1/4 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

Mintage of 8000, and a price of only $568, makes this a great investment coin. The silver coins with mintages around 8000 are already reaching and passing the $1000 mark, so that indicates to me that this coin is underpriced.

1989 5-coin gold proof panda set NGC PF 69 UC

1990 5-coin proof gold panda set NGC PF 69 UC

1990 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

The mintage is 20,000 and 212 are known graded 69 at NGC, and they have sold recently for $268, $305.02, and $299 (all from this list).

1990 1/10 oz platinum proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

With only 4800 coins minted, this coin is very rare. Add to that the fact that a huge portion, if not most of them, were used in jewelry or melted down, then there are probably very few surviving specimens in high grades. With a price of only $699, and half the mintage of a silver proof panda that sells for almost twice as much, this is a highly recommended investment, even though it's platinum, which is less popular than either silver or gold, and will make it more difficult to sell.

1991 5-coin proof gold panda set NGC PF 69 UC

1993 1/4 oz gold proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

This is one of the most expensive sellers on ebay, but they always have the best coins. The other proof gold pandas I've listed here are priced way too low, but this one is much for fairly priced at $4985. It also happens to be one of the rarest with a mintage of only 2500! This coin will easily reach $10,000 levels within the next few years, or less. It could do it tomorrow! Once you've bought up all the bargains, get this coin. Rarities like this don't turn up often, so pay what you have to pay.

1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

The price of these has zoomed from around $450 to the present $1099 price on this listing. Sellers increased the price, and buyers keep buying them. If sellers don't drastically increase their prices, they won't have any inventory left. These are HOT!



Rare gold BU pandas



1982 1 oz gold panda NGC MS 69

1982 gold panda set NGC MS 69

1982 1/2 oz gold panda NGC MS 69

I've been ignoring 1982 pandas for a long time, but I can't ignore them anymore. When they first came out near the end of the 1980's gold bubble, and before the numismatics boom of the late 1980's and 1990's, they were meant to be just ordinary bullion. China just wanted to make a gold bullion round to sell some of their gold production, so not much effort was put into the the design. The coins were frequently handled, dropped, scratched, dented, etc because no one thought they would end up being valuable in high grades.

It's technically only a medal, not a coin, because it has no face value. When it became more popular than expected, collectors requested that China put a face value on all the standard series pandas that followed. The Chinese government later retroactively insisted that the 1982 pandas are legal tender, though I don't know exactly what the face value is supposed to be.

The reason why a face value is so important is because legal tender anti-counterfeiting laws protect collectors by harshly punishing anyone that makes a fake. Medals have no such legal protection. However, China has had many governments during its history, and many different currencies. I have suspected that the details about whether a collectible metal disc is still legal tender or not matters comparatively little to Chinese people who have a long history of just using gold and silver in standard weights, instead of government-created things like dollars, yuan, renminbi, etc. However, medals without a face value have been slower to increase in value than the legal tender coins, so I haven't recommended them much in the past.

All that is changing. A few days ago, a medal sold for over $15,000 when it was expected to sell for $10,000. The bidding competition was unusually fierce, and coming from experienced collectors and investors with serious money to spend on coins. I have noticed the 1982 pandas have doubled in value during the last few months, and although they still don't seem to be increasing as fast as the other coins, I think that's actually an illusion. The other coins increase in spurts, as their popularity increases or decreases. The 1982 coins have always been popular, and they've been steadily increasing in value almost unnoticed.

When looking at the NGC grading populations for these "coins", it's clear they're rare in high grades. There are only 76 1/10 oz, 214 1/4 oz, 64 1/2 oz, and 79 1 oz coins graded in MS 69. Of those 4 sizes, the only one that isn't very rare is the 1/4 oz coin. The mintages for all of them are somewhat high compared to the mintages on the other coins I've been recommending, but for all but the 1/4 oz coin, they have good "grade rarity" and enormous popularity that makes them good investments. They're all extremely hard to find in a 69 grade, and complete sets are rarely seen. The 1/2 oz coin is the rarest overall, but the 1 oz coin has the most "grade rarity".

These prices are high, but where else can you find them in a 69 grade? There's just not enough of them out there. The 1 oz gold coin, for example, should have around 2500 coins on the entire planet that would grade 69 or better. That's NOT a lot of coins! I believe the 1982 pandas are a good investment. They may or may not perform as well as legal tender coins over the long term, but I think you'll have no trouble at all taking a profit and putting your money into something else if the high demand for medals does not continue. 1982 pandas are fortunately very easy to sell due to their high popularity.

1998 1 oz gold large date panda NGC MS 69

The seller of this coin has a reputation for occasionally overpricing coins to ridiculous values. This coin was one of those coins. WAS! The value of this coin is rising so fast, $10,000+ is becoming a fair price to pay. It's investment grade, individual, and most importantly, it's available. The 1998 large date coins also happen to be the rarest of all BU pandas. I know who has these coins, and I know they're not selling until the sets reach $30,000+. That will probably happen within 18 months or less, and although people will tell you this coin is ridiculously overpriced now, in a few months it will seem like a bargain. Pay the price you have to pay, it's worth it. A complete set of 1/20 oz to 1 oz coins will someday cost you $100,000 or more. $10k for the largest piece in the set (but not the rarest) is no big deal. Buy them when you find them, pay what you have to pay, and hold them tightly.

1999 1 oz gold large date serif 1 panda NGC MS 69

This is an extremely rare panda with an extremely high price. It was initially offered for $5999, and I ignored it. The seller dropped the price to $4999, which makes me wiling to recommend it here in this list. This is so irritating with all of these high prices on rare pandas, but this seller is the only one that is offering this coin. So, whatever they want for it, that's the price. If you want the best investment-grade coins, you have to pay what you have to pay. Don't worry about overpaying, as long as you get the coin, and you can hold it for the long term. In due time, you will be RICHLY rewarded. When it comes time to sell, you will be glad you're selling a coin that you can ask any price you want for it.

2008 5 oz gold panda NGC MS 70

What a special coin this is! A monster 5 oz gold coin, rarely seen, and often held in tight-gripped wealthy hands. The mintage is only 1000 coins, and of those, less than 1 in 3 earn a 70 grade, with 22 known so far. Large size coins frequently have damage from handling by mint employees due to their heavy weight, which leaves deep marks with the slightest bump. The $11,050 starting price is only around double the raw gold value of the coin, which is an extraordinarily low numismatic premium for a coin as rare as this one. Obviously a good investment.



Palladium pandas



2004 1/2 oz palladium panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

2004 1/2 oz palladium panda NGC PF 69 UC

2004 1/2 oz palladium panda NGC PF 69 UC

2005 1/2 oz palladium panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

The 1/2 oz palladium pandas in a 69 grade have been selling strongly at above $900 recently. Palladium is extremely popular right now worldwide, but especially in China. The 69 graded coins used to sell for around $700, but prices are rising faster than I expected, and they have started selling for almost $1200 UNGRADED. They're very popular, and frequently selling before I get a chance to publish them in this article series.



Rare lunar coins



1988 1 oz platinum lunar dragon NGC PF 69 UC

1988 1 oz platinum lunar dragon NGC PF 69 UC



The official mintage is 2000 coins on both of the platinum lunars above, the 1988 dragon and 1990 horse. The prices are reasonable for these extremely rare investment-grade coins. Platinum lunars are rarely seen, and there are rumors that many of them were melted. Most of them have official mintages of 300 coins, but some of them were minted in larger quantities. Presumably, the coins with the larger official mintages suffer the greatest losses to melting. All lunar coins are good investments because they're all popular and very rare.

These are among there rarest and most expensive, but being platinum, their popularity increases or decreases with the popularity of platinum. They are more difficult to sell than "standard" gold and silver coins, but they are in the elite class of rare coins, so if you're a patient seller, you can ask any price you want for them because you will probably have the only coin on the market, just as this seller does right now. These are an excellent long-term investment for investors who have the patience to say "no" until the right buyer is found.

The dragon is the preferred coin, so buy that one first if you can.

1998 2/3 oz silver lunar scallop plum blossom flower tiger NGC PF 69 UC

Absolutely gorgeous coin, and dramatically undervalued. This coin has a mintage of only 6800, and will be selling for thousands of dollars very soon.

1999 1/2 oz gold lunar scallop plum blossom flower rabbit PCGS PR 69 DCAM

This coin is too expensive at $4300 - but it's the only one available. I posted about others that were available for half as much just a few days ago, but they're gone, so $4300 is your new price for those who weren't the lucky buyers of those other recommendations. This coin has a mintage of only 2300 coins, so I have no doubt you'll be able to sell it for $10k+ within a few years or sooner, though I do not recommend planning on selling it at that price because it could go FAR higher. You "overpay" now for a good coin just to get it, and then make your profits later. It's frustrating this price is so dramatically higher than the last coins that sold, but you won't get good coins if you don't pay what you have to pay to get them.

In short, is $4300 an unfair price to pay for a coin that was selling for around $2500 to $3000 only one week ago? No, it is not unfair at all. Expensive, yes, but if you have the cash, buy this coin. It will only cost you more later.

2006 1 oz silver lunar scallop plum blossom flower dog NGC PF 69 UC

These coins are called "scallop" because the grading companies don't understand their cultural significance. They're not really a scalloped shape, they're actually a plum blossom "flower" shape. The plum blossom is of great cultural significance in China because the plum tree blossoms amidst the death of late winter, even before the plum tree's leaves have sprouted. It's a revered sign of resilience, perseverence, life-after-death, and the indomitable beauty of China in the face of any hardship. No wonder, then, that the plum blossom is China's official national flower, and it is depicted frequently in all forms of art, both ancient and modern.

When I first became interested in the plum blossom coins, I had no idea why China chose to make such oddly shaped coins. It's much harder to make them that way, and that's probably why mintages are always far smaller than the "normal" coin types. Early gold "scallop" coins have mintages of only 2300 coins! With starting prices of about $3000 each for the ox and the tiger, they are an incredible bargain. Compare these to the 1990 2 oz gold dragon and phoenix coin, which is equally culturally significant, and has a similar mintage of 2500 coins - and sells for - are you sitting down? - $15,000 to $20,000!

I believe all the scallop coins are very underpriced, especially the silver coins. The recent-date scallop silver coins have mintages of 60,000 to 80,000 (depending on the source) but sell for only about $300. Compare that to a 2010 1 oz silver panda coin with a mintage of 1.5 million that's selling for $60 right now. When I calculate the mintages and numismatic value ratios, I estimate the silver scallop coins should be selling for around $500 to $600 right now, but they're very underpriced at only $200 to $300. That makes them a good investment.



Other investment grade coins



1993 1/2 oz gold Mao Tse-Tung NGC PF 69 UC

This coin is expensive. It has an official mintage of 5000, but probably fewer pieces were actually minted. The pricing information out there says it should be priced about $1000 lower than it is. People have made many offers on this coin, trying to get it at a cheaper price. The problem is, the price information people are relying on is for ungraded coins. This coin has a high, investment-quality grade. I think that makes it worth the extra $1000. The unusually high number of offers made on this coin leads me to believe that the coin is very popular, and priced close to what people think it should sell for - but people are just being cheap. The best coins require aggressive buying, and $1000 here and there won't matter in the long run.

1979 1/2 oz silver matte year of the child NGC MS 69

This is a great coin being offered at a fair price. Cheapskates keep offering low-ball prices, but this coin is worth every penny of the $15,000 asking price. The last coins sold for increasingly high values of $7000 to almost $10,000 recently, and none of them were graded. This coin has a high 69 grade, a low mintage, and is extremely popular. Don't be a cheapskate, pay the full asking price and grab it before someone else does. It is worth it.

2008 1 oz silver olympic kite flying NGC PF 70 UC

2008 1 oz silver olympic goat jumping NGC PF 70 UC

2008 1 oz silver olympic shuttlecock NGC PF 70 UC

2008 1 oz silver olympic hoop rolling NGC PF 70 UC

Olympic coins have been gaining in popularity recently. These four coins each have a mintage of only 160,000. Of those, around half receive a 70 grade. Recent date pandas with 3 to 4 times that mintage sell for around $200. Given the surge in popularity of Olympic coins, I think these are underpriced at their auction starting price of $60, and Buy-It-Now price of $100. An ordinary ungraded BU panda with a mintage of 600,000 would sell for the $60 price easily, while a graded one in 69 grade would sell for $75 to $100 easily. I think these are good investments, considering their low price. This seller has dropped the price on these from previous listings that didn't sell for prices of $75 at auction and $125 Buy-It-Now.



Helpful searches



These are helpful searches for coins, not necessarily a list of recommendations, like the other items in this article. If you didn't see anything you like above, you may find coins on your own here that I have ignored or overlooked. I've included an ebay search widget to show you a sample of search results, when possible (they don't always work, so I leave them out).

I'm not going to be able to keep track of when stuff in these searches sell, so you'll have to let me know if you invest in something from these automated searches, so I can include it in the list of other coins that have sold. It would also be appreciated if you posted your coins in the LBC makes me rich thread. Thank you very much!

Search for Chinese coins in 69 grade

Search for Chinese coins in 70 grade

Search for all Chinese coins

Search for proof pandas

Search for panda coins of all types



Sold recommendations



Total recommendations sold: $63080.10

Coins sold from the Recommended modern Chinese coin investments #21 article, total: $3975.38

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $101.88 Dec 29, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $108.50 Dec 29, 2010
1987 1/4 oz gold proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM for $550 Dec 28, 2010
1994 1 oz silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM for $1188 Dec 28, 2010
1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $799 Dec 28, 2010
1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $888 Dec 28, 2010
2003 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70 for $340 Dec 28, 2010


Coins sold from the Recommended modern Chinese coin investments #20 article, total: $4541.93

1990 1/2 oz gold proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM for $1298 Dec 28, 2010
2009 1 oz gold panda NGC MS 70 for $1850 Dec 28, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $108.38 Dec 28, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $106.50 Dec 28, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $104.05 Dec 28, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 X 10 for $1075 Dec 28, 2010

Coins sold from the Recommended modern Chinese coin investments #19 - Don't buy ungraded coins article, total: $2316.24

1990 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $299 Dec 27, 2010
1992 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $399.99 Dec 27, 2010
2005 1/2 oz palladium panda NGC PF 70 UC for $1295 Dec 27, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $105.60 Dec 27, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $108.05 Dec 27, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70 for $108.60 Dec 27, 2010


Coins sold from the Recommended modern Chinese coin investments #18 article, total: $1716.48

1984 27 g silver panda NGC PF 69 UC for $1613.88 Dec 26, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $102.60 Dec 26, 2010

Coins sold from the Recommended modern Chinese coin investments - 2010-Dec-24 article, total: $2089.19 (passed $50k in sold recommended investments)

2010 1 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower tiger NGC PF 69 UC for $275 Dec 24, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $105.60 Dec 25, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $108.60 Dec 25, 2010
1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $799.99 Dec 24, 2010
2004 1/2 oz palladium panda NGC PF 69 UC for $800 Dec 24, 2010

Coins sold from the Recommended modern Chinese coin investments and commentary - 2010-Dec-23 article, total: $1901.60

1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $749 Dec 23, 2010
1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $569 Dec 23, 2010
2010 1 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower tiger NGC PF 69 UC for $275 Dec 23, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $103.60 Dec 23, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $102.50 Dec 23, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $102.50 Dec 23, 2010

Coins sold from the Recommended modern Chinese coin investments - 2010-Dec-21 article, total: $6892.07

1985 27 g proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $1619 Dec 22, 2010
1989 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $199.99 Dec 22, 2010
1990 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $268 Dec 22, 2010
1990 1 oz silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM for $305.02 Dec 22, 2010
1991 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $300.02 Dec 22, 2010
1995 1 oz silver pig NGC PF 69 UC for $970 Dec 22, 2010
1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $655 Dec 22, 2010
2006 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69 for $61 Dec 22, 2010
2006 1 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower dog NGC PF 69 UC for $280 Dec 22, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $102.50 Dec 22, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $105.54 Dec 22, 2010
1994 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $888 Dec 21, 2010
1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $569 X 2 Dec 21, 2010

Coins sold from the Recommended modern Chinese coin investments - 2010-Dec-20 article, total: $8762.24

1983 1 g gold Marco Polo NGC PF 69 UC for $402 Dec 20, 2010
1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $569 X 2 Dec 20, 2010
1997 1/2 oz gold scallop plum blossom flower ox PCGS PR 69 DCAM for $2988 Dec 20, 2010
1998 1/2 oz gold scallop plum blossom flower tiger NGC PF 69 UC for $3551 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70 for $66.89 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $97 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $109.50 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70 for $119 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $123.50 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $126.30 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $41.05 Dec 20, 2010

Coins sold from the Recommended modern Chinese coin investments - 2010-Dec-19 article, total: $16,422

1986 24 g silver empress of china clipper ship NGC MS 70 for $499.95 Dec 19, 2010
1988 1 oz silver dragon NGC PF 69 UC for $565.55 Dec 19, 2010
1988 8 g gold dragon NGC PF 69 UC for $1325 Dec 19, 2010
1989 1 oz gold snake NGC PF 69 UC for $4100 Dec 19, 2010
1989 8 g gold snake NGC PF 69 UC for $965 Dec 19, 2010
1998 1/2 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69 for $6087 Dec 19, 2010
1999 1 oz gold small date panda for $2351.99 Dec 19, 2010
2001-D 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $160 Dec 19, 2010
2001-D 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $144.99 X 2 Dec 19, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $125 Dec 19, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $97.50  Dec 19, 2010

Coins sold from older articles, total: $14,463

2008 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70 for $150 Dec 18, 2010 (LBC makes me rich)
2010 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69 for $42.05 Dec 18, 2010
2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary pandas NGC MS 69 X 10 for $510.95 Dec 16, 2010
1986 5 yuan soccer NGC PF 69 matte KM-140A for $3950 Dec 15, 2010
1987 5 oz silver panda NGC PF 69 UC for $800 Dec 12, 2010
1989 5 oz silver panda NGC PF 69 UC for $960 Dec 12, 2010
2000 1/2 oz gold scallop lunar dragon PCGS PF 69 DCAM for $5895 Dec 12, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $105 Dec 10, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $125 Dec 08, 2010 (LBC makes me rich)
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $125 Dec 08, 2010
1983 silver proof panda for $1800 Dec 06, 2010
« Last Edit: 2010 Dec 30, 02:40:33 am by badon » Logged

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dobedo
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« Reply #1 on: 2010 Dec 30, 07:46:31 am »

Badon,
I noticed that some "coins sold" from your earlier recommendations were not actually sold, they listings ended because there were no buyers at those inflated asking prices. Specific examples include the 1994-1996 silver pandas from your #21 list. As a result, your running total coins sold $ amount may be a bit inflated. This doesn't mean that I don't trust your numbers, but sometimes independent verification is good - "trust, but verify." Smiley
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« Reply #2 on: 2010 Dec 30, 01:07:11 pm »

dobedo,

I fully agree with your "trust, but verify" perspective.  I also agree that the prices on those 1994-1996 proofs coins are inflated.  However, check the links again...they did indeed sell...all three of them...and they sold not long after #21 was posted.  I watched the auctions and saw them all get picked up.  Here are the auctions I'm referring to:

1994 proof

1995 proof

1996 proof

These were the three coins linked in #21.  If you have other auction links to consider, then please provide them.

I could do with less hype as the coins speak for themselves.  It gets tiresome trying to be convinced that a coin with over 3x the mintage of the above proofs should be selling for $399 aka the 1989 silver proof Panda.  There is no way that coin is a deal at $399.

However, the above three coins did all sell for record prices, unless there are games being played by bigger players.  I am quite wary of a pump and dump, but time will tell.  The market will have it's way with all of us in the long run.
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badon
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« Reply #3 on: 2010 Dec 30, 02:18:04 pm »

I try to check to make sure a coin sold after this list was published, but if I miss something, please let me know. I'm doing these lists in my spare time, often much too late at night, and I've seen enough little errors to know that I could make a mistake somewhere. For example, the 2006 dog I posted here sold just minutes before I posted this article, so it won't end up in the list of sold coins.

Be cautious about your caution. People have been calling prices "inflated" for about 5 years, and prices keep rising. I'm the one who has been consistently correct, not the worryworts. $399 for a 1989 1 oz silver proof panda is no doubt a record high price to be asked for one, and people are fully justified in calling it overpriced. Many of the coins in this list can easily be called "overpriced" without any argument from me. But that does not mean it is not a good investment.

You may pay $399 for a coin that sold for $90 2 months ago, but if you hold the coin for the long term - at least 4 years in my estimation - You will probably be selling it for many multiples of that price. I do try to point out when a coin is being offered at a high price, versus when a coin is being offered at a bargain price, but that's not my top priority.

My top priority is pointing out the best investments, with price already factored in, regardless of the details of exactly what the price is. I leave coins out of this list frequently because they're clearly vastly overpriced, but I prefer to err on the side of making the coin available. This is a bonanza market right now, and people are going to get rich on their "overpriced" coins. That's why they're overpriced - the sellers know this too - and that's why people are still willing to pay ever-higher prices.

The 1989 panda will sell for at least $3000 sometime within the next 10 years. $399 may seem "too high" right now - but I ask you, "too high for WHAT?". If it's the only one on the market, and you're going to make 1000% on your money, the specific difference between the last price and the current price is irrelevant, even if prices are dropping (which they aren't, despite repeated calls for a slowdown).

If there were a pump and dump going on, I would be aware of it. I can tell you for a fact that there is not, yet. There simply aren't enough coins to make that possible, especially for the coins that make it into my lists. There are a few exceptions - it could be possible with the 2010 pandas, but since no one is doing that yet, and the price I recommend people buy the coins at is still quite low (under $110), there's very little downside risk.

When you see them being advertised on TV at great expense to the seller, that's a pump and dump. This little article, with a readership of less than 5000 people, does not constitute a pump and dump.

Remember, although this list often contains some very underpriced coins, it isn't about bargains, it's about investment. And, since all of the coins are difficult to find because everyone knows they're good investments, availability is more important than price.
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If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
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dobedo
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« Reply #4 on: 2010 Dec 30, 03:25:55 pm »

Ok, badon, I owe you an apology. And thanks for clarifying this for me, groovemachine.

When I followed the links, some coins were noted as "This listing has ended" which applies to both sold and unsold coins if they were "Buy it now" deals vs. bidding. I mistakenly assumed that if a listing has ended without bidders or final buyer noted, then it's unsold.

As you can tell, not only I am a Panda newbie, I am also an eBay newbie. Confession: the only/primary reason I started using eBay was because of the Pandas. But I am learning ... LBC makes me rich, sooner or later Smiley
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badon
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« Reply #5 on: 2010 Dec 30, 04:03:14 pm »

Haha, it's no problem. Coins go unsold, then get relisted. If you see an unsold coin listed as sold in a later article, it's easy to suspect the coin was listed as sold incorrectly, when in fact, the coin did sell, but not until a later listing. Thanks for keeping me on my toes. You don't owe me an apology. I very much appreciate the scrutiny you're giving my articles because your feedback helps me make them better.

Lots of people read these, but very few comment on them. I'm guessing at what people want to see, based on what I want to see, which isn't always the same thing Smiley

For example, if there were an overpriced rare coin on the market, I would probably want to know about it, even if it's overpriced. That way, I can watch it to see if it sells - only then will I know for sure if the coin is really overpriced!

In addition, coins that were overpriced last week may be UNDERpriced this week, if the sellers don't raise their prices to keep up with the market. That can make for some very good buys, sort of like going back in time and buying up coins that you know will go up in value soon.
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If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
FreeArc is amazing.
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