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Author Topic: Recommended modern Chinese coin investments and commentary - 2010-Dec-23  (Read 1380 times)
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badon
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« on: 2010 Dec 23, 01:24:58 am »



We saw some good bargains, and a few incredible RECORD BREAKING prices paid for coins on the last list. Proof pandas are easily topping $300 or more, and the 1995 pig reached $970, which adds credibility to my enthusiastic predictions that this coin would hit $1000 within 18 months. Lots of the coins on this list are what I like to call "$10,000 coins" because I believe that within a timeframe of somewhere around 10 years (or less?!) you'll have to pay $10k to obtain one of them. Most of the coins I call $10k coins have mintages of 10000 or less.

The pig, for example, has a mintage of only 8000 coins OFFICIALLY, and maybe much less than that were actually minted due to low demand for coins that forced mints to shut down the coining presses early. The 1994, 1995, and 1996 proof silver pandas all have actual mintages under 10k, and some of the early lunar coins do too. The thing with the early lunar coins is that they were poorly handled by the mint employees, so few of them gain a 69 grade. Coins that have mintages well over 10,000 may still be $10k coins simply because they're so rare in high grades.

Oh, and did I mention that maybe - just maybe - coins with mintages under THIRTY THOUSAND could hit that $10k pricetag within 10 years? We may be shocked at the prices these things reach before this is over. $10k may seem like a ridiculously conservative estimate in hindsight.

Until then, however, be prepared for price gains to slow down, especially after January and February 2011. DO NOT SELL YOUR COINS. I know dealers that don't bother selling coins during that time period because instead, they'd rather be buying. The summer time is when people have other things to do besides shop for coins, so demand tends to weaken once springtime comes. That doesn't mean prices will drop, but they have in the past, and I'm here to assure you that you should absolutely ignore any slowing or dropping of prices. If that happens, buy as much as you can afford to buy, because this is a bull market, and anything that happens that doesn't look like a bull market is just a temporary increase in your ability to buy more coins.

How do I know this? Because this bull market has been ramping up since about 2001. It got my attention in 2004, and I was buying coins in 2008 when prices unexpectedly dropped. Someone dumped a massive multi-million dollar hoard of extremely rare coins on the market all at once, and at that time, there were only a few people around with the cash to absorb all those great coins. I was buying rare gold lunar coins for barely more than the BULLION value. I'll tell you this, I can count several people off the top of my head that became rich(er) from buying up the hoard of coins that hit the market and drove prices down back in 2008. All of them have collections worth more than $1 million USD now. A few have some of the top collections in the Western hemisphere, or even in the entire world. That's some serious status.

Will it happen again? No, I don't think so, but it could. I don't know of any hoards of the top rare coins that could have that effect, but there may be hoards of coins with mintages in the tens of thousands to hundreds of thousands that could get dumped on the market. I suspect that if those semi-rare coins got dumped on the market, their prices would drop temporarily, but who cares? I think the rarest coins - the top-end investment-grade coins I recommend here - will be the most resistant to losing value if a mysterious unknown hoard were to suddenly be dropped on the market.

Another important thing to remember is that the one and only significant drop in this market that occurred in 2008 was not due to an intentional sale. It was due to an American government seizure and liquidation of the hoard. The American government is notoriously corrupt, but now that most of the coins are safely back in China now, it's much less likely for such a hoard to hit the market. The owner of a hoard would have to be crazy to intentionally sell all his coins all at once, driving down the value of his holdings. That sort of thing happens in America, when shortsighted heirs inherit their father's world-class coin collection, and want to sell it so they can get rid of all that pesky money as fast as possible. But, Chinese people tend to be more wise about retaining their family wealth, instead of liquidating it at the first opportunity.

Remember the dot com bubble from forever ago? Remember the real estate bubble from just recently? This Chinese numismatic market is not like either of those. Firstly, it's nowhere near bubble territory yet. In fact, the market isn't even mature yet. When the $10k coins I talk about become worth $50k to $100k+, then it's time to talk about the tulips. Until then, this market is really just getting started. Many of you reading this were involved well before it "started" when the grading companies wouldn't even grade these coins. Well, those people made a ton of money already, and they're going to make a ton of money again. If you're new, you're early enough in this market to make as much as they did when they started. It's not too late for you if you're not involved yet.

I seriously believe this market could easily absorb another $100 million gradually without driving prices up to the levels where they should be, let alone where they will be when it's time to sell. Coin bubbles have happened in the past, but being a much-sought-after hard asset, they don't crash as suddenly, nor as hard as other government-controlled markets do. Instead, they falter, drop, then resume increasing. That's right, they continue to INCREASE after the bubble drop. The owners of the rarest of the rare coins plan on holding them right through the eventual bubble that forms. If you're not selling, the fluctuations make no difference to you. If your coin has a mintage of under 10,000 and there's 100 million people worldwide that want one, you have no fear!

But, enough rambling about what might go wrong - If you follow my advice, even if a repeat of 2008 occurs, it won't make any difference. Within 18 months prices will be booming again, and since you followed my advice and bought more coins, you'll just get richer. Making money is great fun while prices are increasing, but foolishly panicking and selling your coins if a temporary price drop occurs would be a huge mistake you will regret the rest of your life.

You're in this market early, you're going to make a lot of money, so decide right now to stick with it no matter what, and you will make more money on these investments than you can remember ever making in your life (that's for most people reading this - there are a few financial geniuses here that are just doing business as usual).

Right now, the dealers are consolidating their control over the market. It's going to be a long, slow process before that completes, but once it does, they will move the market upwards like we've never seen before - and we've already seen a lot! These $10k coins I talk about that you can buy now for a few hundred dollars could make you dizzy with what they become worth once the dealers finish cultivating this Chinese numismatic market into what it was always meant to be.

Just relax, and do not be surprised when the eventual market volatility occurs. We've already seen it a little bit since I've started posting these articles. The 2010 MS 70 pandas have sold for prices between about $60 and $200! When the dealers take control, the prices will stabilize, and move up more consistently. Now, the flood of 2010 MS 70 coins that just one dealer has been putting on the market has started to slow down, and prices are rising again.

All of you that took my advice and kept buying those 2010 MS 70 pandas when prices dropped should be congratulated. Many of you will probably make an easy 100% on your money if you choose to sell when the market heats up at the beginning of 2011, before tapering off for the summer doldrums. Summer will be the time to buy, not to sell. Accumulate cash while you can, because after summer 2011, I have no foresight yet of what exactly this market will do. It will probably be something very interesting. Hold on to your coins, it's going to be a wild ride!

Coins sold from the Recommended modern Chinese coin investments - 2010-Dec-21 article, total: $6892.07

1985 27 g proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $1619 Dec 22, 2010
1989 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $199.99 Dec 22, 2010
1990 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $268 Dec 22, 2010
1990 1 oz silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM for $305.02 Dec 22, 2010
1991 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $300.02 Dec 22, 2010
1995 1 oz silver pig NGC PF 69 UC for $970 Dec 22, 2010
1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $655 Dec 22, 2010
2006 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69 for $61 Dec 22, 2010
2006 1 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower dog NGC PF 69 UC for $280 Dec 22, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $102.50 Dec 22, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $105.54 Dec 22, 2010
1994 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $888 Dec 21, 2010
1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $569 X 2 Dec 21, 2010

Here's some recent articles of mine that can provide some guidance for investing in the current and coming market conditions:

* Wealth preservation: USA vs. China (By Zerosum)
* Coins are the hot new investment
* 5 criteria to determine if a coin is a good investment
* 13 coin facts to learn for beginning investors of modern Chinese coins
* My First Chinese Panda Coin Purchase (By Tamo42)
* Modern Chinese coin investment strategy
* Don't be the "whale" that pays too much for an investment coin
* Modern Chinese coin commentary and market predictions - 2010-Dec-15
* What makes people buy up all the Chinese panda coins?
* Investing in rare modern Chinese coins, some questions answered
* Cash is king for 2011 - Get ready for the coming bargain hunt
* Foresight: Gold, silver, coins, etc will weaken after January or February 2011
* Rumor: Modern Chinese coin charts coming out soon
* Why does this business site talk so much about investments?
* The chess game of rich vs. poor

If you have questions about investing in any of these coins, please ask. If you find a coin that seems like it should be listed here, but isn't, please tell me about it. I frequently wait to list a coin here until I've had time to do the proper research on it that's needed for me to give you the basic facts on each coin. If you'd like to see info faster on a particular coin, I can make it a higher priority for you.



"Common" date pandas



2001-D 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69

These have been increasing up to around the $160 range. This one is offered with an auction starting price of $99 and a Buy-It-Now price of $125, which is a fair deal.

2003 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70

I don't know why, but China is buying up 2003 pandas for some reason. If I remember correctly, there's a rumor floating around that 2003 gold pandas are rarer than previously believed. I checked the population reports for various dates of the silver pandas, and the 2003 isn't any more rare. In a 70 grade, it seems to be a bit more common, but the only one that's been offered recently was listed in the $500 to $600 range, and hasn't sold. All the other, more reasonably priced 2003 pandas have been bought up. I think the silver 2003 panda may be riding the wave of enthusiasm for the gold 2003 panda right now.

They're not rare, but all of pandas have low mintages compared to the coins they're compared with from smaller countries around the world, so I think they're a good investment for profit-taking. Here's a 70 graded coin with a starting price of 99 cents. I think the fair value of this coin is between $120 and $200, with it most likely to sell for around $150. But, with all the hype for 2003 pandas, it could go higher.

2010 1 oz silver pandas in MS 70

One of my readers has noticed that 69 graded 2010 coins have been moving up in value, while 70 graded 2010 coins have been dropping in value. The reason why is that both 69 and 70 coins are being put on the market at an increased pace by just one seller. 69 coins are easy to sell because they're reasonably cheap, and everyone would like to have one. 70 coins, on the other hand, require the right kind of discriminating buyer who appreciates the finest of everything. In other words, you can flood the market with 69's and the price will keep going up, but you can't do that with 70 coins that cost more than double the price of a 69, because most people will just take the 69 instead.

What that means is that, while 69 coins are increasing in value as expected, 70 coins are dropping WHEN THEY SHOULDN'T, and that's a recipe for a good investment. Your strategy should be to buy up the 70 coins for bargain prices, and later take profits just one at a time to keep prices high. Anything you get for under $145 is a good buy, but you should be able to get one under $110.



Rare gold BU pandas



1998 1 oz gold large date panda NGC MS 69

The seller of this coin has a reputation for occasionally overpricing coins to ridiculous values. This coin was one of those coins. WAS! The value of this coin is rising so fast, $10,000+ is becoming a fair price to pay. It's investment grade, individual, and most importantly, it's available. The 1998 large date coins also happen to be the rarest of all BU pandas. I know who has these coins, and I know they're not selling until the sets reach $30,000+. That will probably happen within 18 months or less, and although people will tell you this coin is ridiculously overpriced now, in a few months it will seem like a bargain. Pay the price you have to pay, it's worth it. A complete set of 1/20 oz to 1 oz coins will someday cost you $100,000 or more. $10k for the largest piece in the set (but not the rarest) is no big deal. Buy them when you find them, pay what you have to pay, and hold them tightly.

1999 1 oz gold large date serif 1 panda NGC MS 69

This is an extremely rare panda with an extremely high price. It was initially offered for $5999, and I ignored it. The seller dropped the price to $4999, which makes me wiling to recommend it here in this list. This is so irritating with all of these high prices on rare pandas, but this seller is the only one that is offering this coin. So, whatever they want for it, that's the price. If you want the best investment-grade coins, you have to pay what you have to pay. Don't worry about overpaying, as long as you get the coin, and you can hold it for the long term. In due time, you will be RICHLY rewarded. When it comes time to sell, you will be glad you're selling a coin that you can ask any price you want for it.



Proof silver pandas



All the early silver proof pandas are what I like to call $10,000 coins, because I firmly believe within the next decade, you will have to pay $10k+ to obtain one. The silver proof pandas here meet at least 4 of the 5 criteria to determine if a coin is a good investment. The only one they may not meet is the one about conservation, which is less important as long as the coin looks good despite its age. If any of the coins have white spots when you receive them, you should probably return it for a refund. The white spots may be correctable through conservation, but that's the seller's problem, not yours.

Now that the issue of which silver proof panda coin is the rarest seems to have been settled, the 1994  and the 1996 have increased rapidly in value. However, it turns out that all three of the top coins - the 1994, 1995, and the 1996 - have similarly small actual mintages. There's no one coin that is dramatically rarer than any of the others. The information I have says that all of them have mintages of around 7000 to 8000 coins. So, buy them all up whenever you can, as your cash holdings allow.

1984 27 g silver panda NGC PF 69 UC

This is a gorgeous, high grade specimen of an extremely rare panda. It has sold in the past for between $1600 and $2000, but the seller started this auction at only $1388.88. It appears the seller does not specialize in coins, and may not know the value of this coin. So, not only is it very rare, and in high grade, but it's also bargain priced! We'll see how high the auction finishes, now that the coin has been made famous in this article. I'm not sure if the previous sales were raw, or graded. Chances are, they weren't high grade specimens like this one. That means that this coin could easily sell for above $2000.

1989 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

1990 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

1992 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

1994 1 oz silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

The price of these 1994 coins were increased by the seller from $749 to $888. There's a little secret floating around about these coins. The 1994 proof is the rarest of the proof pandas! At first, people thought it was the 1996 because that's what the official mintage indicated. Then, it became clear that the 1995 was rarer than the 1996. But now, it appears the 1994 is the rarest of them all.

1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

I've decided to list this panda, even though it's the highest priced one on ebay right now at $749. I believe this coin is such a great investment, you should buy them up when you get the chance, even if the price is high.

1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

This is one of the rarest silver pandas. It's hard to find at a reasonable price. It was most recently offered for around $750, but this price at $569 is much more reasonable, so I've decided to list it here. When they appear at auction, they've been selling for around $470, and this particular seller has accepted best offers of around $475. They were selling for around $150 just a few months ago! These are an AWESOME investment.



Palladium pandas



2005 1/2 oz palladium panda NGC PF 70

These have been selling for around $1400 lately, so this coin is underpriced at the Buy-It-Now price of $1295. It's been listed for a while now - The only reason it took me so long to find it, and the reason no one has bought it yet, is because it's listed in the the category for American coins. Whoops. Grab it! The label also incorrectly says MS, when it should say PF because the coin is a proof coin.

2004 1/2 oz palladium panda NGC PF 69 UC

The 1/2 oz palladium pandas in a 69 grade have been selling strongly at above $900 recently. This panda is a good buy at the $720 auction starting price, or the $800 Buy-It-Now price. Palladium is extremely popular right now worldwide, but especially in China.



Rare lunar coins



2010 1 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower tiger NGC PF 69 UC

2010 1 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower tiger NGC PF 69 UC

These coins are called "scallop" because the grading companies don't understand their cultural significance. They're not really a scalloped shape, they're actually a plum blossom "flower" shape. The plum blossom is of great cultural significance in China because the plum tree blossoms amidst the death of late winter, even before the plum tree's leaves have sprouted. It's a revered sign of resilience, perseverence, life-after-death, and the indomitable beauty of China in the face of any hardship. No wonder, then, that the plum blossom is China's official national flower, and it is depicted frequently in all forms of art, both ancient and modern.

When I first became interested in the plum blossom coins, I had no idea why China chose to make such oddly shaped coins. It's much harder to make them that way, and that's probably why mintages are always far smaller than the "normal" coin types. Early gold "scallop" coins have mintages of only 2300 coins! With starting prices of about $3000 each for the ox and the tiger, they are an incredible bargain. Compare these to the 1990 2 oz gold dragon and phoenix coin, which is equally culturally significant, and has a similar mintage of 2500 coins - and sells for - are you sitting down? - $15,000 to $20,000!

I believe all the scallop coins are very underpriced, especially the silver coins. The recent-date scallop silver coins have mintages of 60,000 to 80,000 (depending on the source) but sell for only about $300. Compare that to a 2010 1 oz silver panda coin with a mintage of 1.5 million that's selling for $60 right now. When I calculate the mintages and numismatic value ratios, I estimate the silver scallop coins should be selling for around $500 to $600 right now. They're very underpriced at only $200 to $300, and that makes them a good investment.



Other investment grade coins



1979 1/2 oz silver matte year of the child NGC MS 69

This is a great coin being offered at a fair price. Cheapskates keep offering low-ball prices, but this coin is worth every penny of the $15,000 asking price. The last coins sold for increasingly high values of $7000 to almost $10,000 recently, and none of them were graded. This coin has a high 69 grade, a low mintage, and is extremely popular. Don't be a cheapskate, pay the full asking price and grab it before someone else does. It is worth it.

1996 1/2 oz gold invention & discovery musical instrument NGC PF 69 UC

The seller claims the mintage for this coin is 404. If that's true, it should easily worth 50% more than the current asking price RIGHT NOW, and it will be worth far more than that in the future. Coins with higher mintages are already selling for nearly $20,000. The problem is, I wasn't able to confirm this coin's mintage. I found out that the SET of coins that this comes from has a mintage of 404, but that only means that at least one coin in the set has a mintage of 404, and all the rest could have unlimited mintages. I was not able to find out which coin from the is the one(s) with the 404 mintage.

As such, this coin is being listed here for informational purposes so that you can do your own research. It is NOT necessarily recommended UNTIL its mintage can be confirmed. The price for the coin was in the $5000 to $6000 range, but the coin did not sell, and the seller relisted it at a higher price. I'm certain this coin is a good investment-grade coin to own, so if it turns out its mintage is higher, like maybe 5000 or so, I think you would still earn a return on it despite overpaying now. This should be a fun little mystery for all you investors out there to investigate, or a fun gamble, for the ones that can afford to do that kind of investing (that only works in crazy bull markets like this one!).



Sold recommendations

Total recommendations sold: $46,389.30

Coins sold from the Recommended modern Chinese coin investments - 2010-Dec-21 article, total: $6892.07

1985 27 g proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $1619 Dec 22, 2010
1989 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $199.99 Dec 22, 2010
1990 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $268 Dec 22, 2010
1990 1 oz silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM for $305.02 Dec 22, 2010
1991 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $300.02 Dec 22, 2010
1995 1 oz silver pig NGC PF 69 UC for $970 Dec 22, 2010
1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $655 Dec 22, 2010
2006 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69 for $61 Dec 22, 2010
2006 1 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower dog NGC PF 69 UC for $280 Dec 22, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $102.50 Dec 22, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $105.54 Dec 22, 2010
1994 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $888 Dec 21, 2010
1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $569 X 2 Dec 21, 2010

Coins sold from the Recommended modern Chinese coin investments - 2010-Dec-20 article, total: $8762.24

1983 1 g gold Marco Polo NGC PF 69 UC for $402 Dec 20, 2010
1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC for $569 X 2 Dec 20, 2010
1997 1/2 oz gold scallop plum blossom flower ox PCGS PR 69 DCAM for $2988 Dec 20, 2010
1998 1/2 oz gold scallop plum blossom flower tiger NGC PF 69 UC for $3551 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70 for $66.89 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $97 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $109.50 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70 for $119 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $123.50 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $126.30 Dec 20, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $41.05 Dec 20, 2010

Coins sold from the Recommended modern Chinese coin investments - 2010-Dec-19 article, total: $16,422

1986 24 g silver empress of china clipper ship NGC MS 70 for $499.95 Dec 19, 2010
1988 1 oz silver dragon NGC PF 69 UC for $565.55 Dec 19, 2010
1988 8 g gold dragon NGC PF 69 UC for $1325 Dec 19, 2010
1989 1 oz gold snake NGC PF 69 UC for $4100 Dec 19, 2010
1989 8 g gold snake NGC PF 69 UC for $965 Dec 19, 2010
1998 1/2 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69 for $6087 Dec 19, 2010
1999 1 oz gold small date panda for $2351.99 Dec 19, 2010
2001-D 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $160 Dec 19, 2010
2001-D 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $144.99 X 2 Dec 19, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $125 Dec 19, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $97.50  Dec 19, 2010

Coins sold from older articles, total: $14,313

2010 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69 for $42.05 Dec 18, 2010
2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary pandas NGC MS 69 X 10 for $510.95 Dec 16, 2010
1986 5 yuan soccer NGC PF 69 matte KM-140A for $3950 Dec 15, 2010
1987 5 oz silver panda NGC PF 69 UC for $800 Dec 12, 2010
1989 5 oz silver panda NGC PF 69 UC for $960 Dec 12, 2010
2000 1/2 oz gold scallop lunar dragon PCGS PF 69 DCAM for $5895 Dec 12, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $105 Dec 10, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $125 Dec 08, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $125 Dec 08, 2010
1983 silver proof panda for $1800 Dec 06, 2010
« Last Edit: 2010 Dec 23, 04:15:23 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2010 Dec 23, 09:36:02 am »

badon,

Regarding the "1996 1/2 oz gold invention & discovery musical instrument NGC PF 69 UC": the official mintage for all coins of this set is 1200. Source of the 404 is most likely Ge Zukang's catalogue. He states this number for each of the coins individually.

Regards
dc55232
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« Reply #2 on: 2010 Dec 23, 12:14:59 pm »

Thank you very much for the information. If the actual mintage for the 1996 1/2 oz gold invention & discovery musical instrument NGC PF 69 UC is really only 404, then I think it is underpriced at the current $7195 price, even though it was increased. I should have bought it myself when it was cheaper. I considered it, but didn't do it.
« Last Edit: 2010 Dec 23, 02:53:47 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #3 on: 2010 Dec 23, 03:53:25 pm »

http://cgi.ebay.com/CHINA-1993-GOLD-50Y-MAO-TSE-TUNG-PF69UC-VERY-SCARCE-/230546222443?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item35ada02d6b What about this coin? That could deserve a place in your list..
« Last Edit: 2010 Dec 23, 04:13:19 pm by FanofBadon » Logged

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« Reply #4 on: 2010 Dec 23, 04:21:15 pm »

I have been watching that coin, and it deserves more research, but I haven't decided yet whether to include it in my list or not yet.
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