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Author Topic: Recommended modern Chinese coin investments - 2010-Dec-19  (Read 1626 times)
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badon
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« on: 2010 Dec 20, 12:26:18 am »



1998 pandas are blazing hot right now. Rumors are swirling about wealthy businessmen all over the world buying them up at whatever price they have to pay. Yesterday's post included a 1998 gold small date panda that sold for over $6000! And, it wasn't even the rarest variety. A 1988 1 oz silver dragon coin sold for well over $565 when the estimated price started at only $250. Several 2010 silver pandas in 69 grade were expected to sell for about $45 each, but they've been selling for around $60 instead. One of my readers has noticed that 69 graded 2010 coins have been moving up in value more strongly than 70 graded 2010 coins lately.

Prices are moving up on pretty much everything, and I expect this high demand to continue into early 2011 before slowing down. Here's some recent articles of mine that can provide some guidance for investing in the current and coming market conditions:

* Cash is king for 2011 - Get ready for the coming bargain hunt
* Foresight: Gold, silver, coins, etc will weaken after January or February 2011
* Rumor: Modern Chinese coin charts coming out soon
* Modern Chinese coin commentary and market predictions - 2010-Dec-15
* Why does this business site talk so much about investments?
* 5 criteria to determine if a coin is a good investment
* 13 coin facts to learn for beginning investors of modern Chinese coins
* Coins are the hot new investment
* What makes people buy up all the Chinese panda coins?
* Investing in rare modern Chinese coins, some questions answered
* Modern Chinese coin investment strategy
* The chess game of rich vs. poor
* Wealth preservation: USA vs. China (By Zerosum)
* My First Chinese Panda Coin Purchase (By Tamo42)

If you have questions about investing in any of these coins, please ask. If you find a coin that seems like it should be listed here, but isn't, please tell me about it. I frequently wait to list a coin here until I've had time to do the proper research on it that's needed for me to give you the basic facts on each coin. If you'd like to see info faster on a particular coin, I can make it a higher priority for you.

I'm including information about scallop coins, as requested by FanofBadon (yes, that's really the username he chose, and no, I didn't pay him to do it, haha)

1998 1 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69

Yesterday I thought this coin was overpriced at $5999, so I didn't put it in my December 18th post. Today, one of the reasonably priced 1998 1/2 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69 coins I included in yesterday's post shot past my expected price by $2000, and sold for $6087. That was a game changer. I knew demand for these things was increasing, but I didn't know we would see the effects in the West so fast, especially in the small date coins which aren't even the rarest ones (that's the large date variety)! But, I reminded readers "Don't be afraid to "overpay" when rare coins like this show up", and that's exactly what you're going to have to do to get this coin here. The asking price is "too much", but you're just going to have to pay it if you want one of the hottest investment coins there is. You'll make double, triple, quadruple, or "ridiculuple" on your money, so overpaying by a few thousand bucks is no big deal - you're not really overpaying! Quality stuff demands the highest prices, and that's exactly what a wise investor wants to see when you sell your coins. Don't let the fearsome cost of entry keep you out of this amazing market. If you can afford it, don't complain, just pay the asking price. Aggressive buying is how the winners win this game.

1998 1/2 oz gold scallop plum blossom flower tiger NGC PF 69 UC

1997 1/2 oz gold scallop plum blossom flower ox PCGS PR 69 DCAM

These two coins are called "scallop" because the grading companies don't understand their culltural significance. They're not really a scalloped shape, they're actually a plum blossom "flower" shape. The plum blossom is of great cultural significance in China because the plum tree blossoms amidst the death of late winter, even before the plum tree's leaves have sprouted. It's a revered sign of resilience, perseverence, life-after-death, and the indomitable beauty of China in the face of any hardship. No wonder, then, that the plum blossom is China's official national flower, and it is depicted frequently in all forms of art, both ancient and modern.

When I first became interested in the plum blossom coins, I had no idea why China chose to make such oddly shaped coins. It's much harder to make them that way, and that's probably why mintages are always far smaller than the "normal" coin types. These early gold "scallop" coins have mintages of only 2300 coins! With starting prices of about $3000 each for the ox and the tiger, they are an incredible bargain. Compare these to the 1990 2 oz gold dragon and phoenix coin, which is equally culturally significant, and has a similar mintage of 2500 coins - and sells for - are you sitting down? - $15,000 to $20,000!

Oh yes, invest in these coins. You're going to earn 3 to 10 times your money on them easily, and when they exceed $10,000 they will still be underpriced! If I get lucky and some more cash rolls in, you can bet I will be bidding against you for these coins. I waited until there's only 1 day left to post these because I want them for myself! It was painful for me to list the 2000 1/2 oz gold scallop lunar dragon PCGS PF 69 DCAM that sold for $5895 on Dec 12, but I've been buying those since they were $700 to $1300, so I figured I could let it go. That dragon was one of my favorite top picks, and it sold for $2000 less than it should have. If you missed out on that dragon, you can still get the ox and the tiger for much less money. All of the ones I'm listing here have the same low mintage of 2300. Later dates have higher mintages.

2006 1 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower dog NGC PF 69 UC

2010 1 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower tiger NGC PF 69 UC

2010 1 oz silver scallop plum blossom flower tiger NGC PF 69 UC

See the background info on the gold scallop coins above, which also applies to these silver scallop coins. I believe all the scallop coins are very underpriced, especially the silver coins. The recent-date scallop silver coins have mintages of 60,000 to 80,000 (depending on the source) but sell for only about $300. Compare that to a 2010 1 oz silver panda coin with a mintage of 1.5 million that's selling for $60 right now. When I calculate the mintages and numismatic value ratios, I estimate the silver scallop coins should be selling for around $500 to $600 right now. They're very underpriced at only $200 to $300, and that makes them a good investment.

2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary panda PCGS MS 70

These have sold for progressively higher amounts in the past. The most recent sales values are for $139.99, $170, and now this one is listed for $198. 70 graded 30th anniversary pandas are 4.38 times rarer than the specimens in lower grades. Ten 2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary pandas NGC MS 69 sold for $510.95 (about $51 each) to a buyer who bought them from my December 15th recommendations post. Based on that price, I think this coin should be selling for at least $223 - and more in the future. It's undervalued enough to get you started profitably, and has much potential to increase in value in the future.

1996 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

This is one of the rarest silver pandas. It's hard to find at a reasonable price. It was most recently offered for around $750, but this price at $569 is much more reasonable, so I've decided to list it here. When they appear at auction, they've been selling for around $470, and this particular seller has accepted best offers of around $475. They were selling for around $150 just a few months ago! These are an AWESOME investment.

2001-D 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69

There were two varieties of silver panda made in 2001, the international version, and the domestic version with a "D" mark on it. A total of 500,000 coins total were planned to be minted of both varieties together. The coins with the "D" mark are rarely seen outside of China, and were probably minted in much smaller quantities. This one is graded by PCGS, which adds to the appeal of it for Western buyers. You should have no trouble selling this coin and taking a profit on it in the Western market. The coin has sold recently for $144.99, $153.50, and the last sale was for $160. This coin is offered for $165. Prices are rising.

1984 27 g silver panda NGC PF 69 UC

This is a gorgeous, high grade specimen of an extremely rare panda. It has sold in the past for between $1600 and $2000, but the seller started this auction at only $1388.88. It appears the seller does not specialize in coins, and may not know the value of this coin. So, not only is it very rare, and in high grade, but it's also bargain priced! We'll see how high the auction finishes, now that the coin has been made famous in this article. I'm not sure if the previous sales were raw, or graded. Chances are, they weren't high grade specimens like this one. That means that this coin could easily sell for above $2000.

1998 1 oz gold large date panda NGC MS 69

The seller of this coin has a reputation for occasionally overpricing coins to ridiculous values. This coin was one of those coins. WAS! The value of this coin is rising so fast, $10,000+ is becoming a fair price to pay. It's investment grade, individual, and most importantly, it's available. The 1998 large date coins also happen to be the rarest of all BU pandas. I know who has these coins, and I know they're not selling until the sets reach $30,000+. That will probably happen within 18 months or less, and although people will tell you this coin is ridiculously overpriced now, in a few months it will seem like a bargain. Pay the price you have to pay, it's worth it. A complete set of 1/20 oz to 1 oz coins will someday cost you $100,000 or more. $10k for the largest piece in the set (but not the rarest) is no big deal. Buy them when you find them, pay what you have to pay, and hold them tightly.

2010 1 oz silver pandas in MS 69

A bunch of 2010 1 oz silver pandas in MS 69 have been listed in auctions. They normally sell for $45, but you have a chance at getting them for less than that. They have sold recently for as much as $60, but for investment or making some quick cash, I wouldn't bother with these unless you can get them for $45 or less.

2006 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69

This coin's starting price of $20 is less than the coin's silver value, even after shipping is added. I don't think this seller knows silver is closer to $30 now, and even ungraded common pandas sell for $5 to $10 above silver value. Graded ones sell for around $20 above silver value. This coin is worth at least $45 just for being a silver panda, but winning it for $65 or less will be a fair price for a graded older date panda.

2010 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

I found some newly listed investment-quality 2010 silver pandas that are listed in the wrong categories, or with unusual titles, so they may sell for cheap prices. Today is Friday, so there will be less people trying to find these, and since there's so many of them listed today, I think you will be able to get better prices than usual. Any price under $160 is a fair price, but I think you should be able to get one for around $145. If you get it for less than $145, then you have an instantly profitable bargain.

2010 1 oz silver pandas with a 70 grade have doubled in value in the last several weeks. They may be getting bought up as high-end gifts for the 2010 Christmas season, but more likely they're being bought up as investments now that mint supply has dwindled to nothing, and next year's 2011 panda mintage has been announced to be much larger.

The number of coins receiving that grade has dramatically dropped. Early in the year, most of the coins submitted for grading were receiving a 70 grade. Now, most are receiving a 69 grade. I don't know if that's because of a change in grading standards, or a reduction in quality at the mint.

I suspect it's due to a reduction in quality at the mint because after they completed their planned mintage of 600,00 or 800,000 coins (sources differ), they decided to increase the mintage to 1.5 million coins to meet unexpectedly large demand. I'm guessing that the first batch of up to 800,000 coins received the most care and attention by mint employees. When the unexpected order came to increase production, I think the mint employees were unprepared to produce more coins at the same level of perfect quality, and so coins produced late in the year have tiny flaws that prevent them from earning a 70 grade.

1979 1/2 oz silver matte year of the child NGC MS 69

This is a great coin being offered at a fair price. Cheapskates keep offering low-ball prices, but this coin is worth every penny of the $15,000 asking price. The last coins sold for increasingly high values of $7000 to almost $10,000 recently, and none of them were graded. This coin has a high 69 grade, a low mintage, and is extremely popular. Don't be a cheapskate, pay the full asking price and grab it before someone else does. It is worth it.

1983 1 g gold Marco Polo NGC PF 69 UC

This coin isn't very popular, and it doesn't seem to be very rare either because it has a mintage of 50,000 coins. This coin was so inexpensive when it was released that people gave them away as gifts. They ended up being forgotten, and lost to the market. Certainly, many were melted just like all the other early modern Chinese coins. Since these little coins get no respect even now, you might have a shot at getting a bargain price on this coin at auction. Even though it's not a popular coin, the potential to get it for an unusually cheap price makes it worth mentioning here. You might be able to take a profit quickly, or you can sit on it until it's popularity increases. Even though the mintage was high compared to other coins of this era, these coins are seen much less frequently today than the mintage suggests. I'm not sure what it will sell for, but I'd pay no more than $200 for it. You will probably be able to get it for $90 to $150. It contains about $44 worth of gold. UPDATE: Everyone is surprised that this coin has surpassed $400, with 2 days left to go. WOW! People are starting to recognize how rare this coin is. What a great investment indeed! It will be fascinating to see what it finally sells for, and if the high price will coax a few more out into the market.

1995 1 oz silver pig NGC PF 69 UC

Prices are rising fast on this one. Ungraded, they're selling for about $300, when all the normal pricing information says they should be selling for around half that much. I think this coin should sell for about $400, but you might have to pay up to $600. It's popular, rare, and a great investment. This is one to grab, the mintage is only 8000! You'll probably be seeing this sell for $1000+ within 18 months, and maybe as much as $3000. It's another $10,000 coin. UPDATE: The 1988 1 oz silver dragon NGC PF 69 UC recommended yesterday sold for $565.55, which was significantly more than my $250 to $400 estimate. Expect people to notice, and bid even higher for this sought-after pig. It could go to $800, or more.

1990 1 oz silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

This coin should sell for $200 to $350. They're getting harder and harder to find, and even though they're constantly going up in value, they're still very underpriced.

1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

This is one of the rarest of silver pandas. It should sell for between $450 and $750, but I think it'll go for about $550. This is terribly underpriced because the official mintage figures say it has a mintage of 10,000 which is only the SECOND lowest, after the official mintage of 8,000 for the 1996. In fact, the actual mintage for this coin is much lower.

1991 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

This coin should sell for $200 to $250.

1985 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

Competition for early pandas is fierce. Ungraded examples of this coin sell for over $1200, and a 68 specimen has recently sold for a bargain price of $1325. Coins with a 69 grade are rarely seen, so this coin should sell for between $1300 and $2000, but could go higher. It has a clearly visible mark on the panda's forehead that is common for coins that have been sliding around in their original capsules too long, which will probably keep this coin from selling for some crazy price, but any early date coin from 1983 to 1985 that achieves a 69 grade will require aggressive bidding to obtain. Another two coins are being offered from a well-respected seller right now for almost $5000, so I won't be shocked if this coin exceeds my estimates. If you want to make a lower, more reasonable offer on them, here's a link to it: 1985 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

Sold recommendations

1988 1 oz silver dragon NGC PF 69 UC for $565.55 Dec 19, 2010
1998 1/2 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69 for $6087 Dec 19, 2010
2001-D 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $160 Dec 19, 2010
2001-D 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69 for $144.99 X 2 Dec 19, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $125 Dec 19, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $97.50  Dec 19, 2010
1999 1 oz gold small date panda for $2351.99 Dec 19, 2010
1989 1 oz gold snake NGC PF 69 UC for $4100 Dec 19, 2010
1989 8 g gold snake NGC PF 69 UC for $965 Dec 19, 2010
1988 8 g gold dragon NGC PF 69 UC for $1325 Dec 19, 2010
1986 24 g silver empress of china clipper ship NGC MS 70 for $500 Dec 18, 2010
Ten 2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary pandas NGC MS 69 for $510.95 Dec 16, 2010
1986 5 yuan soccer NGC PF 69 matte KM-140A for $3950 Dec 15, 2010
2000 1/2 oz gold scallop lunar dragon PCGS PF 69 DCAM for $5895 Dec 12, 2010
1987 5 oz silver panda NGC PF 69 UC for $800 Dec 12, 2010
1989 5 oz silver panda NGC PF 69 UC for $960 Dec 12, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $105 Dec 10, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $125 Dec 08, 2010
2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $125 Dec 08, 2010
1983 silver proof panda for $1800 Dec 06, 2010
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dobedo
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« Reply #1 on: 2010 Dec 20, 07:54:33 am »

badon,
Great list and easier to sort through than eBay itself. I'm happy to say that over the weekend I've been able to contribute the bidding frenzy of some of your listed (cheaper) coins. Although I only won a couple since you started the list, it was still fun to just participate in this bubble. Losing the bids is still a positive (or non-negative) return compared to gambling in a casino. Please keep up the great research!
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badon
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« Reply #2 on: 2010 Dec 20, 03:37:25 pm »

I'm glad you're enjoying the list. I'm a power-shopper, and savvy in Chinese coin investment, so hopefully I'm able to share my efforts to save people a LOT of time in finding the best buys. I'm working on the next article right now!
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If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
FreeArc is amazing.
User contributions for Badon - Coin Compendium
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