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Author Topic: Recommended modern Chinese coin investments - 2010-Dec-18  (Read 3511 times)
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badon
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« on: 2010 Dec 18, 08:22:42 pm »



I've added a 2010 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70 (next to the others), and a  1986 24 g silver empress of china clipper ship NGC MS 70 to this listing. I was hoping to find more coins, but the supply is starting to dry up as sellers finish their selling for the year. Most of the year-end reasonably priced rare coins are either already listed here, or have been sold. A few more decent investment-grade coins have been listed on ebay, but I don't like their prices, and I don't think they're the important enough that you should grab at any cost.

I believe that the best thing to do for those nice coins that I'm not listing here is to ignore them for now. I will add to this list whenever I think a coin is a good investment for a reasonable price. Coins I'm ignoring now may become good investments later - but putting your money into them now would mean you would miss the better opportunities listed here that you can get without waiting for the market to appreciate them. You don't want to be late to the party, but you don't want to be too early either. Being too early is often worse than being too late.

My most interesting strategy in not listing some special coins is that, they're ending soon with no bids - and I don't think they'll get any bids - so when they get relisted, I'm hoping they'll be listed for a lower price, and THEN I'll list them here. If they don't have a lower price, they're still a good investment, so I'll still list them here. I just want to give my readers a shot at getting a better deal on some coins that might get relisted in 20 minutes for less money.

1986 24 g silver empress of china clipper ship NGC MS 70

This coin is one of 5 known with a 70 grade, out of just over 50 total graded. That means, OF THE COINS SENT IN FOR GRADING, a little less than 1 in 5 come back as a 70. The official planned mintage for this coin is 90,000 and there are plenty of them available for sale that are ungraded. Ungraded coins sell for $25 to $30, and the last graded one was a 69 and it sold for about $100, which is 300% to 400% of the ungraded price. Normally 69 graded coins sell for about 20% more than ungraded coins, unless it's especially difficult to find a high grade specimen.

I have encountered this coin amongst the inventory of a bullion dealer before. The coin appeared worn, even though it was still in the original capsule and box, with the COA. When I say worn, I don't mean fingerprints, I mean it looked like it had been changing hands at the grocery store for a few weeks, but WITHOUT the fingerprints. The coin is cheap, which may be why so few are getting graded - but with a $100 price tag on a 69 coin, I would have expected dealers to start sending them in for grading. The fact that they haven't leads me to believe that the damaged one I found is typical of the 90,000 coins allegedly minted. I say "allegedly" because these early coins are notorious for being minted in much smaller numbers than the official mintages suggest.

I suspect this coin is much rarer in high grades than anyone has realized yet. This seller has had a $500 price tag on this coin for over a month now, and no one has bought it. I don't know for sure, but it appears to me that it's pretty darn hard to find a collector-grade specimen of this coin, let alone an investor grade specimen. Otherwise, I think all those ungraded coins on ebay would have been submitted for grading by now.

70 coins used to cost 50% more than 69 coins, but lately they've been selling for 100% to 300% more. I have seen a few coins sell for as much as 500% more than the equivalent 69. Although a $500 price tag for this coin would have been too high a month ago, right now, it's only on the highest end of what I would expect to see for a 70 coin. If you can haggle the seller down to $200 or $300, I think you'd have a fair price. If it turns out that this coin really is much rarer in high grades than was previously thought (and maybe all grades too), then $500 might seem like a bargain price.

It's a bit of a gamble, but if you're the betting type, I would grab this coin for the full asking price of $500, especially now that it has appeared in this article. It's going to get more attention than it ever has now, and you don't want to be arguing over price while somebody else is forking over the cash and walking away with "your" coin. Besides, the seller is out of town until January 1st anyway, so sending him messages asking for a lower price won't work...plus, he won't be able to mark the price up once he sees his coin getting recommended here - I don't think he knows that 69 specimens have reached the $100 price level.

This is a beautiful coin, and EXTREMELY hard to find in such a high grade, despite what is believed to be a high mintage for an old coin (for now). Compared to newer coins, this coin is rare, in any investment grade of 69 or better. Given the uncertainties, I wouldn't bother with it in a 69 grade until more is known about just how rare this coin is in high grades, but I think it's a safe investment in a 70 grade, even at a price that "everyone" thinks is too high.

1998 1 oz gold large date panda NGC MS 69

The seller of this coin has a reputation for occasionally overpricing coins to ridiculous values. This coin was one of those coins. WAS! The value of this coin is rising so fast, $10,000+ is becoming a fair price to pay. It's investment grade, individual, and most importantly, it's available. The 1998 large date coins also happen to be the rarest of all BU pandas. I know who has these coins, and I know they're not selling until the sets reach $30,000+. That will probably happen within 18 months or less, and although people will tell you this coin is ridiculously overpriced now, in a few months it will seem like a bargain. Pay the price you have to pay, it's worth it. A complete set of 1/20 oz to 1 oz coins will someday cost you $100,000 or more. $10k for the largest piece in the set (but not the rarest) is no big deal. Buy them when you find them, pay what you have to pay, and hold them tightly.

1999 1 oz gold small date panda

1998 and 1999 pandas are very rare, and much sought-after. The 1999 coins are second to the 1998 coins, and people like to have them all together in four sets of 1999 and 1998, in both large date and small date varieties. The sets cost significantly more than individual coins, because the collectors of these don't want to bother assembling sets themselves. It is rare to see these coins offered individually, in a high 69 grade like this one. This one is currently bid up to $1898, which is very close to what everyone thinks the fair market value is. I think you have a shot at owning this coin for under $2000, but this is another coin where I think you should pay what you have to pay. Any price under $2500 is a worthy investment. If you manage to build a set of 1999 gold small date coins in all sizes from 1 oz to 1/20 oz, you'll be able to make a quick profit because of the premium that complete sets earn.

1989 1 oz gold snake NGC PF 69 UC

1989 8 g gold snake NGC PF 69 UC

1988 8 g gold dragon NGC PF 69 UC

These are a gorgeous, rarely seen lunar coins. These early lunar coins rarely grade in 69, and they're very difficult to find in any grade. This seller's prices are reasonable, but everyone thinks they're too high. The 1988 dragon is being offered for about double what everyone thinks it's worth. The 8 g snake is priced about right, and the 1 oz snake is underpriced by about $1000. Trust me, these prices are not too high. Be willing to pay 50% more than the asking prices for these coins, and they will probably be yours. I would not pay double the asking prices. Each one is an excellent investment, no doubt. Buy them when you find them, and pay the price you have to pay. Ignore everyone who tells you it's too expensive, overpriced, blah, blah, blah. They're all wrong, and you'll be the one with the good investment in your hands.

1988 1 oz silver dragon NGC PF 69 UC

These are very difficult to find. There haven't been any recent sales of this coin, graded. I estimate it will sell for $250 to $400. It's low mintage, and a great buy. It's yet another $10,000 coin.

2010 1 oz silver pandas in MS 69

A bunch of 2010 1 oz silver pandas in MS 69 have been listed in auctions. They normally sell for $45, but you have a chance at getting them for less than that. They have sold recently for as much as $60, but for investment or making some quick cash, I wouldn't bother with these unless you can get them for $45 or less.

2006 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 69

This coin's starting price of $20 is less than the coin's silver value, even after shipping is added. I don't think this seller knows silver is closer to $30 now, and even ungraded common pandas sell for $5 to $10 above silver value. Graded ones sell for around $20 above silver value. This coin is worth at least $45 just for being a silver panda, but winning it for $65 or less will be a fair price for a graded older date panda.

2010 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70

I found some newly listed investment-quality 2010 silver pandas that are listed in the wrong categories, or with unusual titles, so they may sell for cheap prices. Today is Friday, so there will be less people trying to find these, and since there's so many of them listed today, I think you will be able to get better prices than usual. Any price under $160 is a fair price, but I think you should be able to get one for around $145. If you get it for less than $145, then you have an instantly profitable bargain.

2010 1 oz silver pandas with a 70 grade have doubled in value in the last several weeks. They may be getting bought up as high-end gifts for the 2010 Christmas season, but more likely they're being bought up as investments now that mint supply has dwindled to nothing, and next year's 2011 panda mintage has been announced to be much larger.

The number of coins receiving that grade has dramatically dropped. Early in the year, most of the coins submitted for grading were receiving a 70 grade. Now, most are receiving a 69 grade. I don't know if that's because of a change in grading standards, or a reduction in quality at the mint.

I suspect it's due to a reduction in quality at the mint because after they completed their planned mintage of 600,00 or 800,000 coins (sources differ), they decided to increase the mintage to 1.5 million coins to meet unexpectedly large demand. I'm guessing that the first batch of up to 800,000 coins received the most care and attention by mint employees. When the unexpected order came to increase production, I think the mint employees were unprepared to produce more coins at the same level of perfect quality, and so coins produced late in the year have tiny flaws that prevent them from earning a 70 grade.

1979 1/2 oz silver matte year of the child NGC MS 69

This is a great coin being offered at a fair price. Cheapskates keep offering low-ball prices, but this coin is worth every penny of the $15,000 asking price. The last coins sold for increasingly high values of $7000 to almost $10,000 recently, and none of them were graded. This coin has a high 69 grade, a low mintage, and is extremely popular. Don't be a cheapskate, pay the full asking price and grab it before someone else does. It is worth it.

1983 1 g gold Marco Polo NGC PF 69 UC

This coin isn't very popular, and it doesn't seem to be very rare either because it has a mintage of 50,000 coins. This coin was so inexpensive when it was released that people gave them away as gifts. They ended up being forgotten, and lost to the market. Certainly, many were melted just like all the other early modern Chinese coins. Since these little coins get no respect even now, you might have a shot at getting a bargain price on this coin at auction. Even though it's not a popular coin, the potential to get it for an unusually cheap price makes it worth mentioning here. You might be able to take a profit quickly, or you can sit on it until it's popularity increases. Even though the mintage was high compared to other coins of this era, these coins are seen much less frequently today than the mintage suggests. I'm not sure what it will sell for, but I'd pay no more than $200 for it. You will probably be able to get it for $90 to $150. It contains about $44 worth of gold. UPDATE: Everyone is surprised that this coin has surpassed $400, with 2 days left to go. WOW! People are starting to recognize how rare this coin is. What a great investment indeed! It will be fascinating to see what it finally sells for, and if the high price will coax a few more out into the market.

2001-D 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69

2001-D 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 69

There were two varieties of silver panda made in 2001, the international version, and the domestic version with a "D" mark on it. A total of 500,000 coins total were planned to be minted of both varieties together. The coins with the "D" mark are rarely seen outside of China, and were probably minted in much smaller quantities. This one is graded by PCGS, which adds to the appeal of it for Western buyers. The $145 to $160 Buy-It-Now price is reasonable. Sometimes, when getting advice about rare coins, the coins that none of the experts talk about are the ones they are hunting for themselves. This coin rarely gets mentioned by panda coin experts, and all the mystery leads me to believe it is a good investment. You should have no trouble selling this coin and taking a profit on it in the Western market. The coin has sold recently at auction for $154, but is rarely offered for sale.

1995 1 oz silver pig NGC PF 69 UC

Prices are rising fast on this one. Ungraded, they're selling for about $300, when all the normal pricing information says they should be selling for around half that much. I think this coin should sell for about $400, but you might have to pay up to $600. It's popular, rare, and a great investment. This is one to grab, the mintage is only 8000! You'll probably be seeing this sell for $1000+ within 18 months, and maybe as much as $3000. It's another $10,000 coin.

1990 1 oz silver proof panda PCGS PR 69 DCAM

This coin should sell for $200 to $350. They're getting harder and harder to find, and even though they're constantly going up in value, they're still very underpriced.

1995 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

This is one of the rarest of silver pandas. It should sell for between $450 and $750, but I think it'll go for about $550. This is terribly underpriced because the official mintage figures say it has a mintage of 10,000 which is only the SECOND lowest, after the official mintage of 8,000 for the 1996. In fact, the actual mintage for this coin is much lower.

1991 1 oz silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

This coin should sell for $200 to $250.

1985 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

Competition for early pandas is fierce. Ungraded examples of this coin sell for over $1200, and a 68 specimen has recently sold for a bargain price of $1325. Coins with a 69 grade are rarely seen, so this coin should sell for between $1300 and $2000, but could go higher. It has a clearly visible mark on the panda's forehead that is common for coins that have been sliding around in their original capsules too long, which will probably keep this coin from selling for some crazy price, but any early date coin from 1983 to 1985 that achieves a 69 grade will require aggressive bidding to obtain. Another two coins are being offered from a well-respected seller right now for almost $5000, so I won't be shocked if this coin exceeds my estimates. If you want to make a lower, more reasonable offer on them, here's a link to it: 1985 27 g silver proof panda NGC PF 69 UC

2002 1 oz gold panda

I've been hesitant to recommend ungraded and unauthenticated coins, but this one deserves a mention, so long as you're aware that buying ungraded coins could be problematic. I don't see these too often graded, since it seems people don't bother because the coin's investment potential is unrecognized. This coin was recently advertised for sale by the foremost panda coin expert in the world for $1610, and it sold unusually quickly. He describes it as a "sleeper" coin, which means its investment potential has gone unnoticed - and that is the definition of a good investment. The $1610 price was a very good price in the last sale, and this coin is being offered for $1700 "or best offer". I recommend you at least throw out an offer of $1600, and see if you get the coin. I feel $1700 is a fair price too, if you want to just grab it before someone else does. UPDATE: It appears this seller realized the coin is underpriced, and he increased the price to $1900. I feel that price is more in line with its current value.

1998 1/2 oz gold small date panda NGC MS 69 (described as large date originally, corrected)

This the rarest BU (non-proof) panda, according to official mintages. The official mintage says only 4168 coins were minted, but that's not the whole story. There were two varieties for this coin, large date and small date. This is the small date variety, which is the more common of the two. The large date coins are probably worth close to $8000 to $9000 now, if you can find one. This small date variety is about 1/4th as rare, so seems to be overpriced at the current $3000+ price level, but it's not. It's easily a $10,000 coin, and thus a good investment. Don't be afraid to "overpay" when rare coins like this show up. I would bid no more than $6000 for this coin, but it will probably sell for around $4000.

2008 1 oz silver panda NGC MS 70

This coin is a bargain that's been selling at around $159 to $160. Why so narrow a range? Because one seller has been relisting several coins (I keep listing them here), and he's been pricing them cheap. The 2008 has a mintage of only 600,000 coins, which is less than HALF the mintage of the 2010 coins. So, if the 2010 coins are a bargain at $130, then perhaps this coin ought to be selling for something closer to $250. Roughly 1 in 4 coins earns a 70 grade for both the 2008 and 2010 coins, and there are almost exactly twice as many 2010 coins with a 70 grade than the 2008 coins. In other words, the 2010 and te 2008 are pretty much identical in every way, except the 2008 is twice as rare, and a bit cheaper! This is a coin with good profit potential. Don't be stingy by trying to bid for a bargain. Just pay the Buy-it-now price and grab this coin. UPDATE: The 2008 panda was underpriced when listed for $130, but the seller may have seen this post and increased the prices to $198. Too bad nobody grabbed them fast enough!

Sold recommendations

Ten 2009 1 oz silver 30th anniversary pandas NGC MS 69 for $510.95

1986 5 yuan soccer NGC PF 69 matte KM-140A for $3950

2000 1/2 oz gold scallop lunar dragon PCGS PF 69 DCAM for $5895

1987 5 oz silver panda NGC PF 69 UC for $800

1989 5 oz silver panda NGC PF 69 UC for $960

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $105

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $125

2010 1 oz silver panda PCGS MS 70 for $125
« Last Edit: 2010 Dec 19, 06:44:44 pm by badon » Logged

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« Reply #1 on: 2010 Dec 19, 03:50:52 am »

the 1983 1 g gold Marco Polo NGC PF 69 UC  coin is going higher and higher. U said u wouldnt pay more than 200$. What u say now? Worth to go higher?
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« Reply #2 on: 2010 Dec 19, 11:03:20 am »

Yes, it's hard to pay "too much" for a rare coin in a fair auction, but I have to admit that I have no idea how high the Marco Polo coin will go. This is exciting!
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« Reply #3 on: 2010 Dec 19, 11:06:12 am »

I'm also surprised about the 2010 pandas in 69. I thought for sure there would be a few selling for the $30 range, but almost all of them are selling for $50+
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« Reply #4 on: 2010 Dec 19, 11:09:03 am »

Yes, it's hard to pay "too much" for a rare coin in a fair auction, but I have to admit that I have no idea how high the Marco Polo coin will go. This is exciting!

True but how much would you personally pay for it, with the thote of what this coin be worth in the far future.
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« Reply #5 on: 2010 Dec 19, 11:11:06 am »

It's a $2000 coin, easily. I think anything under about $1100 is safe to pay, but I will SHOCKED if it doubles from $400+ where it's at now to $800+ before the auction finishes, so hopefully you'll be able to get it for around $600.
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« Reply #6 on: 2010 Dec 19, 11:12:28 am »

is it true that there are coin dealer who earned millions with coins?
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« Reply #7 on: 2010 Dec 19, 11:15:26 am »

2000$ coin?? wow in ur first post u said u wouldnt pay more than 200$ Cheesy
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« Reply #8 on: 2010 Dec 19, 11:19:47 am »

2000 coin??? wow in ur first post u said u wouldnt pay more than 200$ Cheesy

you cant be serious yourself?Huh thats a clearly push for the price. You are answering the questions yourself and its so clear and you still beliving?`

I mean your first analyse was 200$ badon and now u are saying 1100?Huh?? How comes?
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« Reply #9 on: 2010 Dec 19, 11:21:57 am »

All the coins that got recommended sold for ridiculous prices.

The people who are reading these posts are buyng them and thinking it must be read.

a dangerous game  planing. I just hope these post arent making people sell everything they have for these worthless coins.
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