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Author Topic: Silver Prediction - What's Coming Next  (Read 1550 times)
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tamo42
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« on: 2010 Dec 17, 01:13:00 am »



Some discussion in the chat has really got me looking at silver closely from a technical perspective.  So I thought this would be an opportune time to do a little technical analysis (TA) on the chart for silver.  I'm using SLV as a proxy for silver, even though the prices don't match up exactly.  The moves in SLV are proportional to the moves in the COMEX silver market.

First, we examine the longer term trends in the market.

The larger trend is always the first step.

As you can see, the trend is up.  Here's an overall picture of silver over the past few months:



You can see that silver has been trending very well since its breakout from the 17-19 range it had been in.  The channel widened a bit, but has still been remarkably consistent.

Let's zoom in a bit to the last couple months:



It's been the same thing over and over again, run up, retrace to trend line, and repeat.  The key question at support is always whether or not the support will hold.  Is there enough buying pressure at this price level to return upwards?

The hammer formation in the candles has been the indicator the last several times.  Today we saw another of the same exact hammer candles form.  This suggests that we will begin another leg upwards and that support will indeed hold.

Tomorrow adds another wrinkle of complication though, it is expiration Friday.  This is the day that all the options for this month expire.  Typically, this is a down day for everything as institutions unload and reorganize their positions.  So this effect may cause a little congestion, with a resumption of the trend on Monday.

Keep a close eye on it though.

Happy Trading!


* Silver Big 2 - Dec 16, 2010.jpg (18.53 KB, 600x288 - viewed 313 times.)

* Silver Zoom - Dec 16, 2010.jpg (76.82 KB, 566x467 - viewed 294 times.)
« Last Edit: 2010 Dec 17, 01:29:37 am by tamo42 » Logged

Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #1 on: 2010 Dec 17, 09:25:19 am »

hm tamo42 i know u are more experienced and im a rookie so dont mind my "stupid" questions please.

the long trend is showing up but all of sudden that can dow down too cat it? and get to a upwards trend. Who can give us the guarantee that it will keep going up because soon or later every trend will end.


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tamo42
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« Reply #2 on: 2010 Dec 17, 09:57:21 am »

There are no guarantees in life or in trading.  So yes, that is entirely possible.

The thing to remember is that trends reflect an underlying belief in the market.  Because of that, they last for a long time - until that belief changes.  So, while there is no hard rule, most of the time, the trend will continue.

Trend changes do happen, so you have to watch out for them and be prepared to act if that event occurs. 

The name of the whole game is to stack the odds in your favor.  So go with the trend, buy at support, sell at resistance.  You will never be 100% sure that you are right until after something happens.
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Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #3 on: 2010 Dec 17, 10:16:24 am »


The thing to remember is that trends reflect an underlying belief in the market.  Because of that, they last for a long time - until that belief changes.  So, while there is no hard rule, most of the time, the trend will continue.



This sentence was very wise and eye opening, thank u for this one!
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« Reply #4 on: 2010 Dec 17, 10:19:03 am »

Can you tell me which website you use to get these statistics? I would like to analyse few stocks but i cant find a good website with good details giving like u did in the past.
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tamo42
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« Reply #5 on: 2010 Dec 17, 10:20:37 am »

Which statistics?
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Neal McSpadden
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« Reply #6 on: 2010 Dec 17, 10:22:05 am »

sorry not statistics, i mean the trend and the curves of the things u analyse.  I checked them few times at google finance bt each time its dogy.
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tamo42
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« Reply #7 on: 2010 Dec 17, 10:25:09 am »

Ah, the chart data.  I use custom charting packages.  These charts were produced by my brokerage platform, TradeStation.

If you want decent charts that you can edit for free, try stockcharts.com.  But the data there will be delayed a day.  GoogleFinance has decent interactive charts that you can add moving averages and such to, but you can't draw your own figures on them.
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« Reply #8 on: 2010 Dec 17, 10:26:26 am »

^^yh chart data

oh ok..i understand. Thanks i will try it out Smiley
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« Reply #9 on: 2010 Dec 31, 09:35:26 am »

It would be really nice to see, if u could also do a Gold Prediction / analyse.
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