The following coin, and some information about it's rarity in an upcoming Stack's Bowers auction, is below. Note that the estimated sale price is $3 million to $5 million. In pre-auction online bidding it is already up to $2.2 million. It is possible this coin could go as high as $10 million, although I think the high end of the estimated sale price is more likely ($4M to $5M+). The bolding on key points is mine. My comments on the paragraph are below it.

http://www.stacksbowers.com/BrowseAuctions/LotDetail/tabid/227/AuctionID/6073/Lot/2041/Default.aspx

"Of the 1,758 dollars delivered on October 15, 1794, about 135 to 150 pieces are thought to survive, a high percentage based upon most statistical survivorship models of early American coins. This high percentage reflects the early date at which collectors placed a premium on 1794 dollars, thus saving low grade specimens that would have been consigned to the melting pot if they were of any other date. It also hints at the significance David Rittenhouse and his acquaintances must have placed upon these first United States dollars, many of whom are thought to have saved specimens. Several survive in Mint State grades; six show up on the PCGS Population Report graded MS-60 or finer. Among these, the Amon Carter/Cardinal Collection coin stands out. It is the only one graded as a "Specimen." Though given a numerical grade identical to this one, it is the only one to show an intact reflective surface, and it is the only coin to have ever sold for a price in excess of $10 million."

With a surviving population of up to 150 specimens, pandamonium's beloved 1984 pagodas are rarer - the pagodas are almost twice as rare based on currently known information. What makes this 1794 $1 coin so valuable? It was the first dollar minted, but not the first coin minted. Apparently the fact it's not the first coin minted does not matter, because it's still the first of something.

Being first is the reason the 1982 pandas are considered key. Everybody wants the first panda, even if they don't care about completing the whole set. 1982 panda patterns reached $72'500 in the Hong Kong Stack's Bowers auction. The upside for rare modern Chinese coins is ridiculous, and we may all be completely shocked by the valuations achieved. I dismissed the 1982 gold pandas and the 1983, 1984, and 1985 silver pandas because I thought they were too common. They're not too common, they're too popular, and they will always be that way, forever. First is first.

For myself, I'm thinking like davidt3251, and focusing more on rarity and relative rarity. I haven't drank the "first is first" koolaid, but maybe I should. It's something worth thinking about, in any case. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think one more thing to think about is that the USA's most valuable early minted coins were minted from hand engraved dies, before the USA mint obtained a Janvier reducing machine and other equipment that allowed dies to be engraved by machine. The 1794 dollar above was hand engraved.

If Chinese coin collectors and investors decide that being hand engraved (and thus low mintage) is one reason why some of the earliest USA coins are worth millions of dollars despite having surviving populations in the hundreds, we may see pandamonium's pagodas become worth similar amounts of money. Would that be a shocker! Even I would be surprised if that happened. I think even the most vociferous of Chinese coin cheerleaders, including me, may be severely underestimating their investment potential.

(bolding in RhodiumPanda quote below is mine)

You are right about the huge amount of money that will eventually be chasing hard assets. I don't often think about that, because I think (hope) it will happen slowly, not suddenly. Whether it happens slowly or suddenly may not matter one bit, as long as it happens, and I think we may all be MASSIVELY underestimating the potential of our Chinese coin investments.

The biggest reason why I think we're underestimating is because most people do not understand fiat, and thus they don't understand the danger it represents. Their lack of understanding is so extreme that today we live in a world where many of the most sophisticated and accomplished numismatists and numismatic historians will argue with a straight face that "it's not a coin" (and thus not relevant to numismatics), if it is not fiat! Incredible! Crazy! INSANE!!!!111oneone

Therefore, when the world starts to wake up and realize that they've been living a lie, and reality is closing in around them, they will will be compelled to seek hard assets whenever productive assets like businesses are too vulnerable. $60 trillion chasing hard assets - even if it gradually takes 200 years - is a great reason to invest in hard assets, because the trend is your friend, and it's difficult to screw this up as long as you're able to hold your investments with strong hands.

(bolding in RhodiumPanda quote below is mine)

The text I bolded above is completely wrong, and backwards. I assume you're talking about the rare 1988 brass panda Hong Kong expo that has a mintage 200 with high relative rarity, versus a common big gold panda that has low relative rarity. Relative rarity is important, and typically, the best numismatic investments are almost always the coins that already have a proven track record for being a good investment - which means it has such a high numismatic value that its metal value is irrelevant. The 1794 silver dollar I wrote about above is a great example of that. Millions of dollars for less than $20 worth of silver.

The only catch to that is, at such a high price level, it's much more likely for the cheap silver to double in value, instead of the multi-million dollar numismatic value, but that's par for the course for people who are very wealthy. It is often said that "it takes money to make money", and "the rich get richer while the poor get poorer", but neither of those are really true. It is much easier to double your wealth if you $200 in your pocket versus $200 million. That's why I'm so excited about the 2014 baby pandas. At $160 each or less (uncertified), and a mintage of only 200, it's ridiculously easy to double your investment in them.

If you are indeed talking about the 1988 brass panda Hong Kong expo, I do agree that it is near a fair valuation for its rarity (mintage 200), relative to the 1 oz gold version that has a mintage of 500 that sells for around the same price. In that case, yes, the baby pandas at $160 are probably a much better investment percentagewise, although I think both of the Hong Kong expo pandas in brass and gold may continue to rise in value, along with everything else.

Badon, i agree that the MCC market will go to the moon and shock many that did not buy into this small market.     in time big money will enter into rare or all Chinese, maybe a short amount of time.   The world financial markets are in trouble and confidence in the system could crash.   Again, i think China will survive due to their gold holdings.  The above rare silver dollar maybe better compared to the 100+yr old Chinese silver dollars and not the 84 silver pagoda.   The price of that US silver dollar is amazing...... 

I just had a funny thought. In nearly all mainstream kinds of investing, being emotional about the investment is a big, big problem. For example, if you buy stock in Harley Davidson just because you like Harley Davidson motorcycles, you're probably going to lose your money...

For coins, art, and maybe a few other hard asset investments, being emotional about the investment could actually be a good thing. That's why my advice to "buy what you like" in the Chinese coin market is so often repeated by other people. It turns out to actually be an effective investment strategy for coins! If you told somebody that you were buying stocks, and you expected to make a lot of money on them because you are trying to think positive thoughts about it, they would think you are crazy, haha.

Because the foundation of collectible markets like art and coins are the collectors, being emotional about something turns out to make sense as a legitimate investment strategy. I think the complete disconnection of coins and art from more mainstream investments is part of their appeal when a wealthy person starts to look for alternatives to mainstream investments, especially for the purpose of diversification. They want an investment that is completely different from stocks etc, and that's exactly what you get.

Art and coins are totally unproductive hard assets, and they are notoriously illiquid too. In many ways, they're luxuries that only relatively wealthy people can afford. The concentration of wealthy people in the art and coin markets means there is also a concentration of financial stability. A wealthy person who buys art and coins that they like, is both unlikely to sell, and also more likely to be able to survive hard times without being forced to sell.

Since "great minds think alike", buying what you like is a very natural and easy way to choose your investments. Fundamentally, that's what all the other wealthy people are doing too, and it makes sense to follow the money - most of the time, you don't get to be wealthy unless you have above average skill with handling money. Chances are good that if you like something, other people will like it too. Most interestingly, the more you like it, the more infectious your enthusiasm for it will be.

I think davidt3251 mentioned Huang Ruiyong's complete collection of 1979 UN Year of the Child coins, as an example of a difficult collection to assemble, that also happens to be a fantastic investment. The difficulty of completing the set is just one of many reasons why they're very resistant to volatility. If it takes you 30 years to complete that set, you're unlikely to sell it just because Lisa needs braces, and you don't have a dental plan from your employer. Huang Ruiyong loves his complete set, and he has written many words about his research of them in articles, books, and forums. As a result of sharing that information, other people have agreed with him that they're beautiful, historically and culturally significant, and a fun challenge for wealthy coin collectors who buy what they like. Thus, prices go up!

Re: Large Gold, MCBB, PMs/fear

Badon,

I'll admit my sentence on Brass vs. Large Gold wasn't written correctly.  It wasn't totally wrong, but it wasn't accurate in that context, either.  One thing to consider: The thing that separates coins/medals from stamps (which are generally a bad investment) is some inherent value (stamps have none).   Gold and Platinum have almost too much to get massive multiples over the metal content (as you allude - and bigger is even more out of whack).  Silver is in the sweet spot.  Copper/Brass certainly can get it - but once you go to $8000-$1000 the multiple goes to 20,000:1 or more.  Copper/Brass have a little more inherent value than stamps/paper, but peanuts compared to massive premiums.

Yes - the HK $8800 as well as the low mintage Expo Brass/Copper in that range are fully valued - it will be much harder to double/triple from that level (as you alluded to (poor vs. rich making money).   The low mintage large Brass/Copper are what are even more interesting from a collecting/viewing standpoint.   I did take a chance on 1 set of Antique Brass/Copper Nanjing for about $1700 - since it seems to have room to run with the 30 mintage.

I'm not passionate about large Gold Pandas since i don't really have a Panda Dog in that fight (bullion only for gold).  You are correct that there are better values for poor/middle men - totally agree.

Pandamonium,

Thanks for the appreciation.  You have less fear than me in dealing with crooked cops and thing like that!   Ironically - in the general population it is really pure mental laziness for the most part that keeps sheeple from using their imagination and doing any analysis.  People are afraid to consider reality, but largely because they are too lazy to even look into precious metals (instead of their comfortable paper statements), let alone MCC, etc.  People on this forum are shrewder thinkers than most people, however - I'm not accusing anyone of that here - they all analyze at least.

The real fear will come when things start changing or gets re-booted.   THis is when everyone needs precious metals (even Badon - who might get much more money to get more MCC if the fear/PM appreciation happens prior to MCC taking off) to go along with their MCC.  Precious metals appreciate on fear - that is why precious metals go up just as fast as they go down (feer drives the upside too - different kind than the downside).   With stocks (indexes)  the downside can be 5-10X steeper than the upside because fear only drives the downside - the upside is all greed (fear of missing out, too - I guess)!

Badon/Pandamonium,

Do you consider the set of 69 Pagodas for $4K to be a good deal? 

Badon,

Do you think that the MS68 God of Wealth 2 coins for $98 is a better value than an OMS set of the same medals with boxes and certificates for roughly the same price?

DavidT & Barsenault - thanks for the info on MCC - particularly the 1982 Panda Grading, but other things I'm not familiar with, too. 


 

That's the best price on the market right now, and when comparing other coins that are similar in popularity and known surviving populations, like the Chen Jian 1980 silver God of Longevity, 1984 goldfish, 1980 palace lanterns, and many others, my impression is that the $4000 price is at the very least a fair price in today's market. Your question is a little more difficult to answer in terms of (future) investment potential. I've been pondering that question myself for a long time.

I have a very nice pagoda set in my collection, so I'm not missing out on anything, but I have invested WAY more into the goldfish than the pagodas. That makes perfect sense to me from a collector point of view because I simply like the goldfish more. It also works out in my favor for investment purposes, versus pandas or whatever else, just because I got lucky and the goldfish turned out to be hand engraved - which I didn't know when I decided I liked them, and started seriously collecting them.

At first, it didn't sink in how important it is that the pagodas etc are hard engraved. pandamonium kept harping on it, and like almost everyone does, I ignored him at first. I understood all the technical details, so I'm not sure why I didn't "get it". Suffice to say, now I agree with pandamonium that being hand engraved is a big deal. Furthermore, I think it's possible that we all may be underestimating just how big of a deal it is.

Being hand engraved is unheard of from a modern major world mint, so the only basis for comparison that we have from a mature coin market is the American coin market, where the hand engraved coins are valued as high as millions of dollars in top grades. Is that the future of China's hand engraved coins? Will China's hand engraved coins exceed those valuations, or fall short? Anything could happen, it's all unexplored territory. There is no precedent for this kind of thing.

One thought that has been baking in the oven is that the pagodas are literally and figuratively more "polished" than the goldfish. Yi Shishong left the tails of the goldfish unpolished, and that made them look more organic, and more like they're actually moving in the water. The Songyue is my favorite pagoda design, but all of the pagodas have had all the tool marks thoroughly polished out. I am not an engraver, but the polishing that is necessary for some precision metalwork is identical to the polishing work done on coin dies, and let me tell you, if it takes a month to make the dies, it will take 6 months to polish them! Polishing is very tedious work that drives a lot of people crazing, and it's one reason why hand engraving is so unusual in modern times.

Maybe Yi Shizhong (goldfish) is the more skilled and more famous artist, but there is no denying that Zeng Chengdu's pagodas are incredible masterpieces. The fact they worked together in the same place at the same time in 1984 is really all you need to know. Their styles and skills may have been different, but they are both master engravers. You could probably count on 1 hand the number of people in the world that could do that kind of work in 1984, and maybe there is NO ONE that can do it today, other than the original masters themselves.


That price is so cheap I would consider buying both of them if I were in the market for them. However, I tend to specialize in the best of the best, so I would probably hold out for higher grades and not even be aware of the lower grade ones....but the high grades are not always where the highest profits are. I have bought several low grade coins recently, and in every case it was because I knew the coins were rare, I liked them, and I wouldn't have to bother getting them certified as authentic myself when the time comes to sell. I would be curious to hear what pandamonium thinks of your question.