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Author Topic: MCC LIST #183: 2014, collectors, pullback 9 reasons, food, coin-medal-whatever  (Read 74257 times)
pandamonium, barsenault and 12 Guests are viewing this topic.
barsenault
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« Reply #3370 on: 2015 Aug 31, 08:28:32 pm »

good dialogue between waf and trouble.  very interesting.  I agree in diversification too.  I have bullion, chinese coins/medals, and cash.  I'm out of the system, as I'm not as astute as David is. Or as WD is.  Some folks have a knack at making money in the market.  Not me.  I'm quite happy with the way I've diverified.  May not get the returns of Warren Buffet, but I'm okay with that.  I sleep well at night, because I suspect, most 'average joe' investors like me aren't making it happen like Warren anyway...hence why many of them are out of the market too. 'Joe retailer' has been burned too many times...I've heard the outflows now are pretty heady too.  Especially after that last dip.  ouch.
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My posts are for information and education purposes, although I MAY (more than likely) buy/sell/hold the MCC I write about, so I may not be unbiased in readers eyes. Contact a coin dealer or financial advisor before acting on what I have posted. I am passionate about Chinese medals. If that gets misconstrued as being a Pumper and Dumper. I'm guilty as charged. Thanks, barsenault, iluvmysilver, lovenoah and www.chinesemedals.com
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« Reply #3371 on: 2015 Aug 31, 08:41:05 pm »

I am a bit confuse of your statement "I think those who are selling CBB rather than those buying them will be the ultimate winners." Take example you buy the Casascius Brass Bitcoins and sell them and profit then not touch again. You have make profit. In this case you are the buyer at first then seller. If no buyer there will no seller.

If you refer to the CBB seller as the person who commission the medal it is another case. he/she might not be the ultimate winners sometimes. If this is the case everyone will invest it due to the sure win scenario as you describe. what happen if the CBB cannot sell? Not every CBB selling well.

Time to invest and liquidate is important.

To clarify, I mean that I had no intention to long term hold.  It was a buy intended to flip.

Edit by badon: Fixed quote.
« Last Edit: 2015 Sep 01, 02:16:22 am by badon » Logged
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« Reply #3372 on: 2015 Aug 31, 08:46:56 pm »

Interesting overall market analysis.......a lot if scenarios. How about if china economy down or revive upward Huh??

China's economy is definitely heading downwards.  All economies of the world have high correlation so as one goes, the others go. China's stock market is also not very liquid with the government regulations in place to prevent mass selling of stocks.  So money can go in but cannot go out.  The trend is your friend so I expect markets to grind downwards while the central banks try to concoct some new way to get markets heading upwards again.  The only way for that to occur will be to devalue currencies and inflate away.  The problem with this solution is the inflation doesn't go to where they would like it to go.

I believe China will use this opportunity to continue building gold reserves, dump treasuries for dollars and convert their dollars to hard assets and back to yuan. They have a fortress $3.7 trillion in reserves at their disposal and they will not squander their position by making any premature moves.  The latest explosions in China might be the currency wars turning into real wars.
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RhodiumPanda
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« Reply #3373 on: 2015 Sep 01, 12:52:46 am »

From Pandamonium:
“Interesting information Rhodium Panda. About 2 yrs ago my local coin shop said there was only one guy that sold his bullion to buy rare Proof US coins only. He dug them out of junk silver bags too. That is the future trend for the wise........”

Pandamonium are you talking about the trend of Chinese Coins vs. U.S. coins?  (If so, I agree, although the gap has closed significantly the last 10 years where the common BU Chinese Pandas now have an appropriate premium over the common US Eagles (5X more common, but proportionate $4 Eagle vs. $20 Panda premium over silver).  10 years ago it was 20X more common for the Eagles, but $3 Eagle vs. $6 Panda premium over silver (way too low).  The really rare recent Chinese panda medals have a long way to run, however.  The older Panda proofs are cheaper than the BU pandas vs. mintages again, too.
(Or, are you talking about the trend being the buying of rare Proof US coins vs. common bullion – I agree on that, but only when you can get the Proof silver coins sets at or close to bullion prices).  US silver proof sets are rare compared to Eagles (40X rarer) and getting rarer with the set break-ups for silver junk content in the 2011 runup or for collection books – but not really rare in absolute terms (similar to 2001-2010 BU pandas).

Re DavidT3251 analysis:
You traded toilet paper very successful – esp. shrewd on the stock shorts (which I’d do, if I could ever execute like you’v done!).  I also agree that precious metals will probably continue downward until the deflationary scare completes, but this trend is getting long in the tooth.  With platinum already in a 7.5 year downtrend, Rhodium in a 7.2 year downtrend and Silver in a 4.4 year downtrend (and varying from 58%-92% off their highs) there is not near as much downside left there as compared to the still incredibly overpriced U.S. (in particular) stock markets.  The U.S. stock market could easily still have 75% eventual downside.  It is hard to imagine silver, platinum or Rhodium dropping more than 25% further.  They have already been through 5 or more massive downtrend waves (20-90% each) since their peaks whereas the US market has been through 1 very minor one (12%, currently 7% from all-time highs).

Re DavidT3251 & Badon CBB vs. Precious metal MCC analysis:
You make good points when PMs are in a downtrend, although rare silver MCC are essentially in the same boat as CBB when the silver coin/medal is worth 20-80X the bullion value or more (early Panda proofs, key Munichs, etc.).  Silver enjoys the best of both worlds (5000 years as money like gold and precious but cheap enough that the bullion value is near irrelevant when the premium is massive, unlike Gold or Platinum)

Badon:
Your analysis on the Nanjings, Lunar Pandas (in particular), but Expo and Baby Pandas to a lesser extent etc. seems spot-on to me, again.  They are going to be choke points for any serious collector, and the choke point is now 10-100 times narrower than for previous Pandas that have already gone up massively. (99-299 vs. 1000-10,000 mintages in the proven performers.  
I also agree 100% about the BU pandas being overpriced relative to other medals and proofs and have been trading some for low mintage recent medal.

Wafdog:
Re: low mintage recent panda medals.  You are correct about thin markets – but the reward/risk ratio on these is incredibly high (esp. when you already have a past model in the Munichs (50X price appreciation for both the 12oz and Kilo (one-off medals as part of a sub-series of Panda Medals).  The worse that could happen is that these modern medals only match inflation with the currency (toilet paper) printing (already and coming), but more likely they’ll become virtual museum pieces in demand.  They are like limited edition artwork (with collection potential too) and without all the BS problems with artwork (preservation, display theft, incredibly thin markets, etc.)

Badon:
You mentioned the 1oz. 1982 Pt Panda as being potentially the most valuabe (although it is kind of a mythic panda).  The attached photos show the 10th anniversary 5Kilo gold (10 mintage) that sold for $1M+ back in 2006.  It has roughly 180X metal value vs. the Pt. and only 2x mintage (still super rare - with a $800K numistatic premium





Edit by badon: Images.


* 5kilopanda2.jpg (82.57 KB, 703x629 - viewed 170 times.)

* 5kilopanda.jpg (96.18 KB, 691x627 - viewed 173 times.)
« Last Edit: 2015 Sep 01, 02:09:22 am by badon » Logged
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« Reply #3374 on: 2015 Sep 01, 02:40:18 am »

To clarify, I mean that I had no intention to long term hold.  It was a buy intended to flip.

Edit by badon: Fixed quote.

Understand you intention is flipping around the medal and coin.
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« Reply #3375 on: 2015 Sep 01, 02:44:37 am »






Edit by badon: Images.

This is real beauty. I have no money to invest at all. the 5 oz 30th anni gold panda price not up
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« Reply #3376 on: 2015 Sep 01, 03:49:06 am »

If I remember correctly, the 5 kg gold panda and many other allegedly record prices were all set at Champion auctions. Every single one of their claimed record prices are probably fake, because Champion and other Chinese auction houses allow shill bidding. Chinese criminals working with or for Champion will set a fake record price, and then try to convince people to either buy at those record prices, or to sell their coins through Champion to try to get those record prices. In each scenario, the honest person is the one that loses money, while Champion and their friends laugh at their stupidity.

One auction house that does NOT allow shill bidding is Stack's Bowers, but unfortunately, they're retarded too. They have so many things wrong that they can't even get much above $100 bids each for a complete set of the rarest and most valuable Nanjing gods that sell for many multiples of that price on ebay, even on a bad day. Stack's Bowers is so retarded, I can't even share links to their auction listings because they use fancy JavaScript code that search engines and humans alike can't use. I gave up trying to bid on any of the items I wanted. Sour grapes for me, party time for the new owner, haha.

I complained to Stack's Bowers in the past about their website issues, including some major security flaws they have in their website that would take about 90 seconds to fix, but they have ignored me. I'm betting the guy that does their website is somebody's nephew, haha. Whatever you do, don't consign your coins for sale to Stack's Bowers (or any shady Chinese auction house like Champion), but if you're a buyer, you might get lucky if you're able to navigate the byzantine pile of junk that is the Stack's Bowers website. I did manage to get a few dirt cheap items in the previous auction a few days ago, so I can't complain too much. I probably doubled my money buying at below market prices.

ebay, despite it's own set of problems, is vastly better for both buyers and sellers.

Anyway, about the big gold - big gold is the second worst numismatic investment you can make, with only a few exceptions. The first worst is investing in fiat. At least with the big gold, when (not "if") you lose 100% of the numismatic value, at least you still have some precious metal to use as a pillow when you cry yourself to sleep at night because of all the money lost on it.

Canada produced the first 100 kg gold coin, and Canada has a much stronger and more mature numismatic market than China does, despite being relatively tiny in comparison population-wise. Canada's coin has a mintage of 5, and was originally sold for a significant numismatic premium as one of Canada's rarest coins. When the owner put it up for auction, it sold for exactly bullion value to - can you guess? - a bullion dealer, NOT a coin dealer. In the melting pot it goes!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/7856041/Worlds-largest-gold-coin-sold-for-2.7m.html

Australia crushed the competition when they minted a 1000 kg gold coin to take the title for the world's largest gold coin. Nobody has bothered to top Australia with a 10'000 kg gold coin. Supposedly Australia's coin is on display at the mint without as much security as you would expect, because nobody is going to make a fast getaway with a crane and a 1000 kg chunk of gold. It would take a good hour or so to rig it up and get it lifted and loaded into your getaway vehicle, haha.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2056412/Worlds-biggest-gold-coin-Perth-Mint-Australia-worth-35million.html
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« Reply #3377 on: 2015 Sep 01, 04:52:05 am »

Expensive 1983 8 g gold Marco Polo sold: 291552979471. These coins used to often surprise me because of the high prices they sold for. It has been a while since I've seen a sale like this, and it's giving me confidence that cultural coins are making a comeback.

Expensive 1985 Xinjiang autonomy sold: 131349212557.

Check out the collection of coins in the background of the photos of this ebay listing: 252076474097.
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If families are a problem for the system, then we must reject the system, not the families.
Founder of the Coin Compendium (forum, blogs, calendar, images, donate, contribute).
LBC makes you rich, with a free ebay gift certificate awarded every month!
The Coin Compendium and the china-mint.info forum, censure, disclosure.
Do not PM questions. Answers should be publicly available.
Backup is not enough. Protect your data with MultiPar.
Writer of LBC Chinese coin investment articles (list).
About me: User:Badon - MediaWiki.org
Badon effect: type 1 to 8, type 9.
I type faster on a TypeMatrix.
Use my work. Give credit.
Coin, medal, whatever!
Coin storage advice.
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barsenault
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« Reply #3378 on: 2015 Sep 01, 06:26:16 am »

wow. nice collection.  However, I still remember you showing the biggest collection I've ever seen in my life.  It was from wg, I believe was his name...he had stacks and stacks and stacks and more stacks everywhere.  It was quite astounding.  I can't remember where I saw the pictures. I may have been on CCF. 
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My posts are for information and education purposes, although I MAY (more than likely) buy/sell/hold the MCC I write about, so I may not be unbiased in readers eyes. Contact a coin dealer or financial advisor before acting on what I have posted. I am passionate about Chinese medals. If that gets misconstrued as being a Pumper and Dumper. I'm guilty as charged. Thanks, barsenault, iluvmysilver, lovenoah and www.chinesemedals.com
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« Reply #3379 on: 2015 Sep 01, 06:28:27 am »

The 1 oz silver PF 69 Xinjiang Autonomy coin sold cheap as i can recall!   The 1 oz coin has much more demand than the 5 oz medal....Is the 5 oz medal undervalued?  I contacted NGC some time ago and they are looking at possible varieties as posted first by RAREMEDAL on CCF.........

1991 5 kilo 10th Anniversary Gold Panda, wow.  Now i know what i want for Christmas.....

Rhodium Panda:    A few US rare coin collectors have given up on bullion and even junk silver (wrong choice).   They collect Proof rare US coins only or other rare silver/gold.   When these US rare coin collectors discover the MCC market then maybe they will sell their rare US proofs for Chinese.....

jsmineset has interesting speculation by Bill Holter.   What if Saudi Arabia announces that they will sell oil in the Yuan?  There are many other factors that are promoting the Yuan as the next currency such as the IMF and their upcoming revaluation of World currencies.   When one of those events happen and the Yuan rises then i expect a flood of sheeple to buy the Yuan and related rare coins/medals.   Lots of downward pressure on the USD and upward on the Yuan.  For now there are problems everywhere.    Lets see how it all plays out......


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