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Author Topic: MCC LIST #183: 2014, collectors, pullback 9 reasons, food, coin-medal-whatever  (Read 74330 times)
LBC3716, perfulator, davidt3251, Jens (+ 1 Hidden) and 12 Guests are viewing this topic.
pandamonium
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« Reply #3360 on: 2015 Aug 31, 11:38:01 am »

Ebay 231664770402   1987 brass God of Longevity OMP   -current bid at $255 w/ a few hours left-     This is the one i was told had 500 mintage.  No verification of that mintage yet.    Might be a good one to collect just in case......

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barsenault
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« Reply #3361 on: 2015 Aug 31, 11:54:07 am »

As  many of you know, the low mintage Gold Panda Goat is being minted.  It is 2 oz's.  There is one left.  My partner Andy has it.  I can give you his email address if interested. 

The Monkey Panda should be ready in Oct.  I've seen the renderings, and I think it is another stunner.  There are only a few left for pre-sale.

All the best.  Bob A
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My posts are for information and education purposes, although I MAY (more than likely) buy/sell/hold the MCC I write about, so I may not be unbiased in readers eyes. Contact a coin dealer or financial advisor before acting on what I have posted. I am passionate about Chinese medals. If that gets misconstrued as being a Pumper and Dumper. I'm guilty as charged. Thanks, barsenault, iluvmysilver, lovenoah and www.chinesemedals.com
wafdawg
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« Reply #3362 on: 2015 Aug 31, 02:55:20 pm »

I have read a lot of posts and have gathered much insight on these LBC forums.  In the past I was able to take advantage of some cheap eBay auctions which were first posted here and also to track some of the trends that were first presented here as well.  FWIW, this is my take on the MCC market and the overall market in general.

On the MCC:

1.  I think investors and collectors should understand they are speculating on numismatic premiums when it comes to new releases with limited mintage. New issues have no track record.  For every winner there is a loser. To say that the limited mintage gold coins are iliquid is the understatement of the century.  This is a very thinly traded market.  With that being said, there are certainly opportunities to flip some coins for profit or to buy coins which quickly appreciate than level off and appreciate later at a more methodical rate.

2. CBB (China, Brass, Bronze) - Again I would be careful to not over invest in these coins which have high numismatic premium with essentially zero intrinsic value. The added risk is also that they are new releases and low mintage.  In my opinion these are pure flips.  I used to sell a lot of Casascius Brass Bitcoins.  I've sold some for as high as $5k (the 2011 error coin) graded by ANACS MS66. I quickly converted my bitcoin (at the time around $800) into USD and bought gold and silver pandas. These Casascius error bitcoins can probably still fetch like $1500 so I'm glad I did not hold onto them.  I think those who are selling CBB rather than those buying them will be the ultimate winners.

3. Overall market - I don't believe we have experienced deflation yet.  I think precious metal prices will remain steady to weak as there is no catalyst to send them higher.  US stock market will tread water and turn downward. If the Fed makes true on its threat to raise interest rates which I think is unlikely than we will be hit with significant deflation.  Should they decide to go to QE4, I believe that will be the trigger for precious metal prices. As precious metals rise so will all MCCs but it will be the pandas that see the highest appreciation in prices. Even with QE4 announced and underway I still think it will take some time for PMs to move upwards.  I believe MCCs will lead vs. PM prices.

I know my opinion is vastly different than many here so I welcome hearing the other view point.


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barsenault
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« Reply #3363 on: 2015 Aug 31, 06:35:22 pm »

It is 50g, not 2 oz of gold for the panda goat. Sorry about the confusion.  Soon you'll see the real deal. :-) take care all.

I love my low mintage lunar pandas, world heritage, Nanjing and Lohan series. Be it brass or silver or copper. :-))  I think they'll all do fine in the course of time.  We shall soon see Wafdawg. :-) I'll let the pros chime in. :-) hope you are well my friend.
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My posts are for information and education purposes, although I MAY (more than likely) buy/sell/hold the MCC I write about, so I may not be unbiased in readers eyes. Contact a coin dealer or financial advisor before acting on what I have posted. I am passionate about Chinese medals. If that gets misconstrued as being a Pumper and Dumper. I'm guilty as charged. Thanks, barsenault, iluvmysilver, lovenoah and www.chinesemedals.com
wafdawg
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« Reply #3364 on: 2015 Aug 31, 07:39:35 pm »

It is 50g, not 2 oz of gold for the panda goat. Sorry about the confusion.  Soon you'll see the real deal. :-) take care all.

I love my low mintage lunar pandas, world heritage, Nanjing and Lohan series. Be it brass or silver or copper. :-))  I think they'll all do fine in the course of time.  We shall soon see Wafdawg. :-) I'll let the pros chime in. :-) hope you are well my friend.

I am doing well.  I hope you are good too. Don't get me wrong, i love the lunar pandas, i think they are a home run.  The Nanjing and Lohan series have done well too but I would also think the market is smaller for them. And again, just my opinion, so take it for what it's worth. I like to look at things from a risk perspective.  Maybe if someone is heavily invested in a lot of numismatic coins it's also a good idea to hedge them with a sizable bullion holding.  And I also believe everyone needs to maintain a cash position in order to protect their hard asset investment.  By this I mean your PMs will remain in strong hands and you won't ever be forced to sell to raise funds in case of crisis or emergency.
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« Reply #3365 on: 2015 Aug 31, 07:44:48 pm »

I have read a lot of posts and have gathered much insight on these LBC forums.  In the past I was able to take advantage of some cheap eBay auctions which were first posted here and also to track some of the trends that were first presented here as well.  FWIW, this is my take on the MCC market and the overall market in general.

On the MCC:

1.  I think investors and collectors should understand they are speculating on numismatic premiums when it comes to new releases with limited mintage. New issues have no track record.  For every winner there is a loser. To say that the limited mintage gold coins are iliquid is the understatement of the century.  This is a very thinly traded market.  With that being said, there are certainly opportunities to flip some coins for profit or to buy coins which quickly appreciate than level off and appreciate later at a more methodical rate.

The Chinese in china especially the dealers with the gold corp distribution right always flip their coin for every new release. They are nature gamblers. What is the lowest silver MCC for current new release ? Min 30K mintage. To flip it and control the market which you need buy 9K silver coin of total mintage in condition your competitors do not have more than 5% of it. Otherwise you need more quantity to control the market and price. Let say one pieces of 1 oz silver new release MCC is at USD130 which 9000 is at 1.17 mio. The dealer take the risk so I view the return of 30-120% is fair enough. Sometimes it might be higher. The most important factor to control the market and price is never let the price down significantly after the peak. precious metal price might play a part too of the up and down price even it is not affect the numic value significantly.

Bear in mind the dealer does not earn fully on 30-120% of the coin because not all 9000 pieces will sell fully. After minus all costs and stock he might not earn that much. He might even need to buy more quantity to control the market which more capital. someone might say I invest in other areas. It is depending on the knowledge and in road to the MCC, your holding power, investment style and so on.

As small investors who intend to flip must know the in roads. You might not even able to sell as dealers because your network is limited as compare to them. However, flipping is buy fast and sell fast and not be greedy.

I view new release and old coin are the same.
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« Reply #3366 on: 2015 Aug 31, 07:54:21 pm »

I am doing well.  I hope you are good too. Don't get me wrong, i love the lunar pandas, i think they are a home run.  The Nanjing and Lohan series have done well too but I would also think the market is smaller for them. And again, just my opinion, so take it for what it's worth. I like to look at things from a risk perspective.  Maybe if someone is heavily invested in a lot of numismatic coins it's also a good idea to hedge them with a sizable bullion holding.  And I also believe everyone needs to maintain a cash position in order to protect their hard asset investment.  By this I mean your PMs will remain in strong hands and you won't ever be forced to sell to raise funds in case of crisis or emergency.

I totally agree not invest majority of you money into just one type of investment products. Diversification is crucial if your risk profile is not high or super high. High risk and high gain.

Numic is hard asset which is not as liquid as cash. Must take this into consideration. Not invest heavily if you has no holding power and need liquidity in short term. This is one of the reason which someone can make money BUT you loss due to holding power. May reasons contribute a success and failure of investment.

I will face serious issue if I invest heavily in bullion silver only. I cannot sell it at all in Singapore if I have more than 100 KG even 10% below spot. Therefore, choose you investment portfolio is key to success.

For example, Micheal Jackson invest heavy in his house. What will happen if he cannot pay off the loan and facing a serious economy recession when need money and sell it? In turn if he pay off the loan and sell it at economy boom. It is extreme case which one will lead to great loss and another is significant gain.
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wafdawg
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« Reply #3367 on: 2015 Aug 31, 08:00:06 pm »

The Chinese in china especially the dealers with the gold corp distribution right always flip their coin for every new release. They are nature gamblers. What is the lowest silver MCC for current new release ? Min 30K mintage. To flip it and control the market which you need buy 9K silver coin of total mintage in condition your competitors do not have more than 5% of it. Otherwise you need more quantity to control the market and price. Let say one pieces of 1 oz silver new release MCC is at USD130 which 9000 is at 1.17 mio. The dealer take the risk so I view the return of 30-120% is fair enough. Sometimes it might be higher. The most important factor to control the market and price is never let the price down significantly after the peak. precious metal price might play a part too of the up and down price even it is not affect the numic value significantly.

Bear in mind the dealer does not earn fully on 30-120% of the coin because not all 9000 pieces will sell fully. After minus all costs and stock he might not earn that much. He might even need to buy more quantity to control the market which more capital. someone might say I invest in other areas. It is depending on the knowledge and in road to the MCC, your holding power, investment style and so on.

As small investors who intend to flip must know the in roads. You might not even able to sell as dealers because your network is limited as compare to them. However, flipping is buy fast and sell fast and not be greedy.

I view new release and old coin are the same.

The coins frequently discussed here don't have mintages of 30k. Also if a dealer buys 9k, that's 30% of the total supply, very high concentration. So yes indeed that is speculation and gambling as you stated. They are taking the risk and looking to unload quickly. What we are discussing here is the low mintage coins which come out at issue price then seemingly double or triple in a month or two. Then they come back to earth. Long term they may rise smoothly or not. The track record is not there yet to say so for sure. These is a more recent phenomenon. Old coins have a better history and track record. The 90's pandas for example will become even greater investments when more panda investors enter the market as they will chase the key dates and rarer varieties. A lot of these low mintage series will seem like one-off type of coins and not garner any more interest.
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« Reply #3368 on: 2015 Aug 31, 08:14:09 pm »

2. CBB (China, Brass, Bronze) - Again I would be careful to not over invest in these coins which have high numismatic premium with essentially zero intrinsic value. The added risk is also that they are new releases and low mintage.  In my opinion these are pure flips.  I used to sell a lot of Casascius Brass Bitcoins.  I've sold some for as high as $5k (the 2011 error coin) graded by ANACS MS66. I quickly converted my bitcoin (at the time around $800) into USD and bought gold and silver pandas. These Casascius error bitcoins can probably still fetch like $1500 so I'm glad I did not hold onto them.  I think those who are selling CBB rather than those buying them will be the ultimate winners.

Everyone has their own investment style, tactics and strategy. Otherwise everyone will like Solo the well known Forex speculator and other famous investors. someone might gain big and another loss big in the market.

You have pointed out clearly that you cash out the profit at 800 instead of waiting for the peak of 1500. You still convert to profit quickly even believe it will go to 1500. This is your investment way. However, another investor will gain double if believe it will go 1500 and sell at 1500. Noone has crystal ball to foresee it will down or up. Knowledge, luck, risks, return and so on...................many nameless factors for an investment.

I am a bit confuse of your statement "I think those who are selling CBB rather than those buying them will be the ultimate winners." Take example you buy the Casascius Brass Bitcoins and sell them and profit then not touch again. You have make profit. In this case you are the buyer at first then seller. If no buyer there will no seller.

If you refer to the CBB seller as the person who commission the medal it is another case. he/she might not be the ultimate winners sometimes. If this is the case everyone will invest it due to the sure win scenario as you describe. what happen if the CBB cannot sell? Not every CBB selling well.

Time to invest and liquidate is important.

 
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« Reply #3369 on: 2015 Aug 31, 08:19:12 pm »

3. Overall market - I don't believe we have experienced deflation yet.  I think precious metal prices will remain steady to weak as there is no catalyst to send them higher.  US stock market will tread water and turn downward. If the Fed makes true on its threat to raise interest rates which I think is unlikely than we will be hit with significant deflation.  Should they decide to go to QE4, I believe that will be the trigger for precious metal prices. As precious metals rise so will all MCCs but it will be the pandas that see the highest appreciation in prices. Even with QE4 announced and underway I still think it will take some time for PMs to move upwards.  I believe MCCs will lead vs. PM prices.

Interesting overall market analysis.......a lot if scenarios. How about if china economy down or revive upward Huh??
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