I was talking with a few people in the chat about the 1989 1 oz silver proof panda coin that could have been bought 5 years ago for $15, but is now being offered for around $400 in today's Recommended modern Chinese coin investments #19 - Don't buy ungraded coins
article. That works out to an investment return of over 2600%! Can such incredible gains continue? Can the Chinese coin market continue to gain like it has so far?
Yes, I think so, and here's why (prepare for wild speculation):
The top grading company for American coins is PCGS, with about $12 billion worth of coins graded so far. That doesn't include the coins that are graded by NGC, or not graded at all, but it is a good starting point for an estimate of the total size and value of the American coin market.
I estimate that the entire Chinese coin market is only valued at around $100 million right now. China is a much larger country than the USA, and it will soon have much more money than the USA too, but I'll be conservative. Let's guess that China's coin market will almost match America's within the next 10 to 30 years, and become valued at $10 billion. For that to happen, coin values would have to increase an average of 100 times, or 10,000%.
That means that this market really is just beginning, and those who hold moderately rare coins worth only a few hundred dollars each could become wealthy. For example, to match the USA's coin market, a 1989 1 oz silver proof panda valued at $400 today would have to become worth $40,000, and an average very rare coin worth $20,000 today would have to become worth $2 million.
Those are just wildly speculative examples - in actuality the rarest coins will probably grow the fastest, while less rare coins will grow a bit slower. The $400 coin might only increase to $10,000 while the very rare coin might increase to $20 million. We will see. No one knows for sure yet, exactly what will happen to the price of each coin.
Maybe the Chinese coin market won't match the American coin market. Instead, it might go half as high, or twice as high, or 10 times as high. What we DO know for sure is that Chinese coins are going WAY, WAY higher. WAY HIGHER! Like, really, really, really A LOT, LOT, LOT higher! I can't emphasize it enough.
We're nowhere near a bubble. In fact, this market is just barely getting started.
Buy everything you can get your hands on, and you will have a good chance at getting rich. Any idiot can do this, as long as you have cash to buy coins, and you follow good advice to buy the best coins you can afford. It's going to be hard to make a mistake and lose money in a market that is projected to increase several thousand percent! If you do something wrong, you may not get rich, but you will probably make money. It's that easy.