The Food Shortages are Beginning

[tamo42]

If you've been paying attention to the "alternative" media, especially in economics, over the past 6 months, you will have seen many people talking about the upcoming food shortages for 2010 (despite the US government saying there will be record yields).  In 2009 there were food riots in many poor countries because the price of basic staple crops went up to the point that the people couldn't afford to buy bread and corn.

Well, I saw the first signs yesterday when I went shopping for the week.  I shop at a large wholesale market that is also open to the public.  Normally, there is full aisle of corn available, about 20 feet long.  Yesterday, there was a sign that said "Due to weather, we are out of corn."  And that space was taken up with cabbage.

So yes, it's beginning to look like those who cited the poor weather last year as leading to shortages and rising prices (hint: check out the DBA ETF) were right.

[badon]

Check this out:

http://digg.com/business_finance/Why_Does_Food_Cost_So_Much_2?OTC-widget

The article bemoans the rising prices of food. "caferrell" eloquently criticizes the entire premise that food is becoming unreasonably expensive:

"What we should be amazed at is not that food is expensive, but rather that it is so cheap. Never before in the history of mankind have average people been able to eat on less than 10% of their income. To complain about the cost of food is to implicitly approve of Federal manipulation of food prices through subsidies.

Food subsidies have led to cheap junk food that have been the cause of exploding levels of diabetes in the US and now México and even China. Get the government out of food!

And as Mr. Elsewhere42 writes above, we need to produce food without so much expense of oil. We need to learn to eat seasonal local food. That means taking time to cook and to enjoy food together as a family. We will improve the health of our bodies, our world and our society."

I think the final paragraph is the most important one. With the economic decline, we will see food prices increase, but I also suspect we'll see local agriculture and quality of produce increase as well. Very interesting.

[tamo42]

That could be in line with the reports that fewer people died during the Great Depression because fewer people were eating crap that killed them.

I'm totally on board with getting oil out of food production.  It makes no sense at all to mine 9 calories of oil energy and then spend it producing 1 calorie of food energy.

[norpneely]

You guys are kind of out there. I don't think anybody is going to starve. I do think you're right about oil though, it's bad for the environment. Does it really take 9 calories of oil to make 1 calorie of food? That's nuts!

[tamo42]

You're right that nobody is going to starve... in the first world, prices will just go up.  In the poor parts of the world though, people will be and have been starving for the last several years:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7384701.stm

http://www.infowars.com/food-riots-in-egypt/

http://brooklynfoodconference.org/2009/05/raj-patel-what-food-riots-really-are/

As for the amount of oil it takes to produce food, the amount varies, but 8 or 9 to 1 is a good average:

http://www.sustainabletable.org/issues/energy/

http://www.harpers.org/archive/2004/02/0079915

http://www.aquarianonline.com/Eco/OilyFood.htm

[norpneely]

In comparing the cultivation of animals versus plants, there is a clear difference in magnitude of energy efficiency. Edible kilocalories produced from kilocalories of energy required for cultivation are: 18.1% for chicken, 6.7% for grass-fed beef, 5.7% for farmed salmon, and 0.9% for shrimp. In contrast, potatoes yield 123%, corn produce 250%, and soy results in 415% of input calories converted to calories able to be utilized by humans.

Got that from wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological_efficiency#Applications

[tamo42]

Yep, all true.  You have to keep in mind these numbers are in commercial operations that use highly inefficient techniques (but on a vast scale).

If you were growing these plants and animals yourself, all the ratios would be over 100%.

Traditional agriculture as it is currently practiced is only sustainable with cheap energy due to these very low efficiencies.  Either we need to find a continuing source of cheap energy or agriculture needs to change drastically.  Of the two choices, I think the latter is more likely.